Race Shapes For Derby Day

[TGJB]

Here are the Race Shapes for Derby day. We\'ll announce later how soon we\'ll have them available for all tracks. They\'ll be free for a while.

Most of the kinks are out (we hope), but these are still a hair off. As soon as we get them completely right we\'ll let you know-- should be some time this weekend.

This has been an unbelievably complex project. It\'s a good thing George is working from home, otherwise he would have taken a swing at me by now.

[miff]

JB,

Nice format.Is it too difficult not to commingle turf and dirt starts in averaging the 3 races.Does it have to be the last three starts as opposed to  the last three on a particular surface, i.e. dirt or turf or synth or poly.Thanks


Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- you can look down at the horse\'s past races and pick the ones you want. They are all adjusted for the speed of the track that day etc., and then adjusted for today\'s probable speed (based on recent days), and whether there is a turn, etc. So those figures below are on the same scale as the ones used for the graph.

One thing I have found interesting is (once you make the adjustments) how consistent the fractions are for each horse. Particularly when you realize they are affected by tactics.

[fkach]

>One thing I have found interesting is (once you make the adjustments) how consistent the fractions are for each horse. Particularly when you realize they are affected by tactics.<

You sound like a pace handicapper. ;-)

The product looks great.

[TGJB]

I\'ve been getting a fair amount of emails and calls about the Race Shapes. Thinking it over, it might be better if the dialogue took place here-- it would save me having to explain the same things repeatedly, and might get a good discussion going.

[smalltimer]

C\'mon, what\'s wrong with a little pace handicapping?

[Beginner]

Let\'s say for example I\'m looking at race shapes for Belmont and the \"recent\" speed of the track is fast or faster than average, but on the day I\'m playing, it happens to rain heavily - does the fact that the track is now significantly different than the \"recent\" speed negate the race shapes information?
By the way, from a beginner perspective, the information is quite compelling and very helpful to me for \"reverse handicapping\" - it\'s like having the answers (at least for the first 1/4 mile) and testing my ability to read the charts as to how I think it might unfold.  Thanks!

[TGJB]

That\'s an excellent question.

Assuming that the horses run as well in slop as on fast tracks (and also assuming the last 3 were on fast tracks for this example), the relationships would be the same. Keep in mind these are PAST relationships-- not a real prediction. We\'re just saying that if they run the way they have been recently, this is how it will look.

But you can also pull out past slop lines and just use those if you want.

As for track speed-- Yes, if the track has changed speed significantly (or there is significant wind effect) the time itself for all the horses will be off. I haven\'t figured how to solve that problem yet. The only thought I have had is not to use just the recent track speed, but to go back further and use many more races to average, which would sort of give you a blended track speed that wouldn\'t be right on the money, but would never be far off.