First, I have already bet in Vegas against Big Brown winning the triple crown, I absolutely believe he will react in one of the next two races (if he makes it to the Belmont).
Second, I don\'t think it\'s likely that he gets beat on Sat. I threw him out in the Derby because of the post and the fact that even a slight regression from the Fla Derby could get him beat as there were several horses who were within 1 or 2 points of him assuming he had regreesed.
For the Preakness though, given the weak competition, he could bounce 5 points and is still the most likely winner and the post and the track set up (tough to close) are alot more favorable for him tomorrow than they were for the Derby.
So, to me, the \"value\" (such as it is) in the race is the exotics, especially the Exacta and to a lesser extent the pick 4 given the 14% takeout in the pk 4 compared to the 25% takeouts in the tri\'s and supers.
I will be playing exactas using Big Brown over Kentucky Bear, Giant Moon and Hey Bryn. I believe these three offer the best combination of sheet numbers, patterns and likelihood of decent trips according to Race Shapes as the two outside horses should be able to get over based on the race shape data.
That\'s a $6 bet (for $2) that I think will pay $18 (for $2) or so as it throws out the second choice Gayego, Racecar Rapsody who will take some money but who I think will be comprised by the speed favoring Pimlico track and what should be a moderate pace and Macho Again (who will take alot more money than he should given the immense better power behind West Point Thoroughbreds with all of their partners betting extraordinary sums on hopeless causes, trust me, I speak from experience here).
I will also play a small e box with the three underneath horses in case Brownie reacts even more than expected this time but I will be saving most of my dry powder to go against him in the Belmont.
Finally, note that the takeouts on the $1m guranteed pick 4 ending with the preakness are only 14% so that\'s another way to lever up on BB just a bit.
