Casino Drive got a 0 in the Peter Pan

[TreadHead]

While I don\'t necessarily disagree with your overall premise, I wish people would quit falsely bashing his pedigree and his ability to get classic distances.  Whether or not you put any stock at all in dosage theory, the fact remains that he has 24 points in the classic category.  This means he has tons of classic distance ability from all over his pedigree.  This is 10 more points than any other horse who has taken part in any of the triple crown races, save Adriano.

If you want to take the narrow-minded view of only looking directly at his sire, that\'s your mistake.  His pedigree is fine and will easily be the best in the Belmont field.  Now if you want to play against him based on his race figures, that\'s a whole different story altogether.  I\'ll be on the fence until I see all the figures and soak everything in, but if I do play against him, it certainly won\'t be because of his pedigree or ability to get 1.5 miles.

[covelj70]

Tread,

you say \"His pedigree is fine and will easily be the best in the Belmont field.\"

Do you honestly believe that Big Brown is bred better than Casino Drive?  I hate to even ask this but do you know who Casino Drive\'s siblings are?

BTW, I think it\'s pretty obvious that I am looking at the bottom side, including 2nd and 3rd dam to make the statements about TOE and DOC.

[TreadHead]

BIG BROWN     BOUNDARY 7.68   7.58   11.8   NORTHERN DANCER   NUREYEV 8.47   8.34   8.8   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   4 - 7 - 23 - 2 - 0   1.67   0.36   DESORMEAUX    DUTROW JR.    IEAH STABLES & POMPA JR.

CASINO DRIVE     MINESHAFT 8.50 * 8.50 * 0.0   BOLD RULER DEPUTY MINISTER  8.44   8.28   8.7   NORTHERN DANCER P/P   10 - 6 - 12 - 0 - 0   3.67   0.93   TAKE YAMAMOTO FUJISAWA

Yes, I\'m aware of who Casino Drive\'s siblings are.  He is a very nicely bred colt, especially for the 8-9 furlong range.  But for classic distances, Big Brown seems to have a clearly superior pedigree on paper.

And if you truly were looking at dam families, as you claim, you would not discount BB\'s ability to get 1.5 miles.

[covelj70]

I don\'t claim by any stretch that Big Brown can\'t get 1 1/2, just that Casino Drive is better bred for it.

I posted a few weeks ago that the scariest thing about BB is that he\'s better bred for the turf than the dirt due to that bottom-side.

That really is scary if he\'s doing what he\'s doing on what is not his best surfact....yikes!

[TreadHead]

My apologies, I guess I mis-interpreted this comment in your original post

\"with breeding that isn\'t that hot for 1 1/2 mile,\"

[covelj70]

totally fair, should have been more specific that it was a relevent not and absolute comment, my bad.

[ronwar]

covelj70,

Answer this for me, if Casino Drive was going into the derby under the same circumstances would you bet him.  Maiden with great breeding flies over has one prep race, earns big number and is now all set for a 1 1/4.  You would toss him!  But now instead of 1 1/4 he is being asked to go 1 1/2 !?!  He will take plenty of money in the exotics and I think the play here is to toss him

I don\'t care how many Belmont winners in a row the mare pushed out, it is asking a lot of this horse at a very very short price.  And to my eye, his Peter Pan was not all that impressive.  He got a perfect trip and Kent had to really work to get him going, giving him three big cracks of the whip in mid stretch.  Not for me.

[Lost Cause]

ronwar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> covelj70,
>
>
>
> I don\'t care how many Belmont winners in a row the
> mare pushed out, it is asking a lot of this horse
> at a very very short price.  And to my eye, his
> Peter Pan was not all that impressive.  He got a
> perfect trip and Kent had to really work to get
> him going, giving him three big cracks of the whip
> in mid stretch.  Not for me.

One of the biggest thing about that race though is that he was not anywhere near fully cranked..I wish we knew just how much he was cranked so I could get a feel but if he was 70 % , would it not be possible for him to run a neg 2 in this one?

[TGJB]

Or a 10.

[ronwar]

How many times have you heard \"he wasn\'t fully cranked\" or \"He needed that one\" and the horse was up the track next out?  Sure he can fire a neg 2, but I wouldn\'t be willing to bet on it.  I\'ve seen too many shippers fire their best shot off the plane and end up out of the money next start.  And those horses were not going 1 1/2 miles facing stiffer competition after blowing their load first time in this country, while working off of a two race foundation. In fact, most were turfers, who tend to bounce less, and were handled by guys with the \"magic touch\"  BB thorpattern on the other hand reads:

........................................................................................................StsTop%Pair%Off% X%
Dirt 3yo Apr-Jun: Prev Top 1, Top-Top-Off (-3.5, -4.75, -1)  100...13....30....27....30

That\'s 70% that all others need a new top to beat him and without doing the research, I would guess, like the derby, not many tops are earned in the Belmont.

[miff]

No one has mentoned that Casino Drive was reportedly undertrained, short, not so sharp, did not race in three months, and fired a zero off no foundation. He\'s not supposed to bounce to the moon?

Mike

[albany]

You say Casino Drive is \"nicely bred for 8-9 furlongs.\"

Do you really think he can get that far?

[ronwar]

The more I think about it, the more I think it is a little arrogant on their part to send over a maiden to try to capture one of the crown jewels.  I have a great deal of respect for Japan breeding and racing, but c\'mon!  It\'s not like they\'re sending over someone as accomplished as Cesario, who captured the American Oaks in \'05 or Dance in the Mood, who just missed in the Oaks in \'04.  By the way, that victory by Cesario was the first by a Japan-bred and Japan-raced horse in almost a half-century.

Haven\'t we seen this before.  I do not remember it ever working in the triple crown.  Arazi comes to mind, but he was a superstar in Europe already.  I searched the archives looking for a horse with two or three races looking to test a 1 1/2 or 1 1/4.  Doesn\'t exist.  Not even Lukas or Zito have tried such a thing and they lived for the triple crown. What am I missing??? He won a maiden by open lengths, ran a zed off the plane against second and third tier 3 yr olds and now he\'s 9/2 going a mile and a half. Nope, not gonna happen


...Big Brown wins it for America!!!

[TGAB]

No we\'ve never seen this before. Never. The story is the dam. And it\'s a pretty iffy proposition. But when has a dam ever dropped three Belmont winners in a row, much less two, or two period.  Never, ever. The owners, connections don\'t have to do this. They don\'t have to try. But they are because it\'s a such unique accomplishment. That\'s not arrogance, it\'s more pie in the sky, why not -- be thankful that they actually have a horse that\'s a viable contender and we get the chance to see it.

[TreadHead]

I don\'t need to \"think\" anything.  He ran a zero at 9 furlongs in his second race ever, I\'d say that qualifies as being able to \"get\" 9 furlongs.