M Jellish/Miff

[big18741]

If you were there for the BB work this morning any comments on the gallop out?

14 and change seems a lot slower than his prior work gallop outs unless they shut him down by design.

[ajkreider]

Looking at the fractions, it seems he was slowing down a lot before the 5f mark.  23 3/5 and 35 1/5 and then 1:00 flat?

Almost looks like a 4F work.

[miff]

Not there guys, but I would not get too worked up, since Tricky was looking for 1.01 thereabouts.I\'m sure the critiques on the work will be coming in soon. One DRF writer had BB working poorly pre derby and look how he ran.Also many stories about CD not looking great in his works last week. Minutia and information overload,imo.

Would think that the next 48 hours will tell the BB story after putting pressure on his feet for the first time since the quarter crack.

The weather is supposed to be 90+ degrees on Sat and that could be a real factor re washouts.


Mike

[mjellish]

Got him in
23.31, 35.29, 47.38, 100.27

He galloped out another 1/8 in about 14 (was tough to see exactly when he hit the pole from the angle)

He looked smooth and comfortable and did it well within himself.  Rider hardly moved except to let him run coming into and off of the turn.  Didn\'t seem to take much out of him at all.  Was hoping to see a strong gallop out in 13 or so, or even better yet a double gallop out, but he was immediately put under heavy restraint after completing the move and seemed to listen to the rider and shut down.  Don\'t know for sure but BB did not seem to be blowing at all after the move.

There were not many other workers on the track to compare this to, and I\'m not sure about the quality of the ones that were there.  The track did seem slow and tiring as there were not many fast times and the ones that went fast had to be urged or even urged hard to complete their moves, even some of the shorter ones.  

Overall assessment:  no one that worked looked as good as he did or went anywhere near as fast as he did so easily, but then again if he is on top of his game and a potential Triple Crown winner then that is how it should be.  This was an above average work with a good/average gallop out.  He was fastest in the middle part of the work, which is usually not what you look for.  This seemed more like a maintenance move and they did not let him do very much.  I would have rather seen a slow, steady work with progressively faster 1/8ths and a stronger gallop out.  Overall this was an above average work with a fair gallop out that would be typical of a front running style horse.  Guess the most important thing will be how his hoof holds up and how he acts afterwards.  

For what it is worth, here are some other thoughts on some of the others.

Casino Drive was on the wrong lead galloping yesterday and counter-cantered around the turn.  TOE\'s final workout time was fast but he was also blowing quite hard afterwards.  I\'ve heard DC is training like a monster and seems to be coming into the race as good as can be.  I was also told that MA also looks even better and came home like a freight train late, with a very strong gallop out in his penultimate work.  No other info to report.  Check DRF and the Bloodhorse for more.  

Pending further info and based upon what I think so far, my strategy would be to play against BB in the Pick 4 and/or pick 6 and use DC & MA instead.  I will then hedge by playing BB as a win key in the Belmont EXA, TRI and SUPER.  I do not think CD or TE will take 2nd in this race.  CD just looks off to me, then again I don\'t know much about eastern training methods and he may yet work before the race.  TE looked tired to me after his work and I don\'t think he wanted any part of 1 1/2 anyway.  To my eye AN is also a very sneaky horse to hit the board in this race.

[sekrah]

Any look at Ready\'s Echo?

[Josephus]

What does \"counter canter on the turn\" mean?

[Ill-bred]

Here\'s the only footage I\'ve found. Not much, but it\'s something...

He\'s a smooth mover, although the front-to-back foot rhythm is a little different than some other horses.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/horseracing/ny-spbigbrown0604,0,5515655.story

[mjellish]

counter canter means leading with the opposite feet front and back, so right front lead, left rear lead, etc.  It\'s an awkward way for a horse to move.

[Ill-bred]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> counter canter means leading with the opposite
> feet front and back, so right front lead, left
> rear lead, etc.  It\'s an awkward way for a horse
> to move.



aka cross firing. generally not a good thing.

See The Green Monkey.

[mjellish]

No info on Ready\'s Echo.  I read your post and I know you like him Sekrah, but he is still eligible for a ALWN1X and is sired by More Than eady.  I know Kingmambo on the dam\'s side helps, but....

[mjellish]

Just to be clear, there is nothing in BB\'s work that makes me want to play against him.  The rider never asked him much less sat down.  This was purely a maintenance move.  

Barring further developments, the only reason I am going to make a play against BB in the pick 4 is because I really don\'t like Casino Drive.  I would estimate that a minimum of 85% of all the Pick 4 tickets will have either BB or CD winning the Belmont.  A million things can happen in a race and the best horse does not always win.  See Smarty Jones, IMO he ran the best race in the Belmont and he still lost.  See also Spectacular Bid, terrible ride whether he stepped on a pin or didn\'t.  

Also, no matter what the connections say, BB does have a well documented physical ailment.  I don\'t care what his connections say, if that thing cracks or gives way at all, even 1/2 inch in the race, BB is bound to become uncomfortable and that may be enough to prove his undoing.  So let\'s just say that has a 5% chance of happening, this would equate to fair odds of 20-1.  If you are like me and you don\'t like CD, the Pick 4 payoffs will be enormous if BB runs out.  Even if you spread very deep you may be laying around 1000-1 on your money or more.  So to play it that way vs 20-1 fair odds is still a huge overlay.  It\'s just a math thing, or a hedge.

[alm]

When Stewart Elliott gave an interview about 25 minutes before the Belmont and answered a question saying it didn\'t matter that he had not ridden much at Belmont, I turned to my friends and said \"he loses.\"

Then he makes a typical 1-mile track move halfway down the backstretch, asking SJ for everything for the half-mile run to the wire....except there\'s still six furlongs to go.  Idiot.

[Uncle Buck]

Sorry for the \"Work\" thread. I didn\'t read the MJellish/Miff thread prior to posting. Thanks for the on-track reporting:-) You kinda remind me of Haskin.

Anyways - I read the Bloodhorse story and it said BB was eager to do more. You know Dutrow will blow him out 3F Saturday morning just to take the starch out. Kent D will have another Cadillac cruise around there. If there\'s no blood seeping from the hoof tonight or tomorrow following today\'s move it\'s OVER. BB is KING and gets his crown at 6pm Eastern 6/7.

Too bad I\'ll be stuck in Indy working without TV. I will have to find Dave Johnson\'s call online somewhere

[jbelfior]

Mjellish:


I respect any opinion from someone who once ( still does?) had the stength, discipline, emotional stability, etc. to play this game professionally.

That being said; if Macho Again wins the Belmont, I\'ll stop playing this game on the grounds that it is completely unbeatable.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fkach]

I think the biggest risk to BB is the 12 furlongs. It would have been a risk to begin with, but it rose because of question marks about his fitness.  We have seen other examples of horses with minor hoof issues missing some training and then not running a peak effort. That\'s really the only thing I am worried about with this horse.

Even though I am basically clueless as a pedigree handicapper, when I see the name Boundary I can\'t help but be a bit squeamish about that last 1/4 mile no matter what\'s on the other side. In addition, we shouldn\'t forget that even though this horse has very rateable speed, he has a LOT of speed. The Seattle Slews of the world are very rare. Most horses blessed with that kind of really high quality speed are not also blessed with superior stamina like Slew. SS was kind of super freakish. Perhaps BB will get 12F well enough to win or get away easy early, but I wouldn\'t be shocked to find out he\'s a tad better at 10F than 12F. So if someone moves up or he\'s used early, the last 1/8th could get very interesting.