race spacing???

[dannyboy135]

For those who have handicapped far longer than I.  I would like your thoughts on how much time would you give a mare between races.  Also would like thoughts on likelyhood to bounce even with good spacing.

Mare runs 3 3/4 as a 2 year old
at 3 run 9 1/4 , 12,  6 3/4 ,  4 3/4 , (neg 4 1/2)  and then wins the iowa oaks on five weeks rest probably running a 1 or 2.

how best to get this mare to the breeders cup

[RICH]

Danny

Off the 8 pt top to a neg 4 followed by the obvious regression to a 1 or 2, I say be very careful, that\'s a set back number and the wheels can come off anytime. I say rest her till August, with one race before the BC. Good Luck

[marcus]

That makes perfect sense to me - no more than the one in august before the BC - and there\'s probably some significants to those early 3 yo numbers too . Don\'t have my neg fig study file open but if not mistaken ,a very small percent stay in the range a race or two that follow - and even fewer ever get back . Maybe sending her to the BC cold with no prep races is on the table as well ...

[dannyboy135]

thanks for the input.  I feel similarly but that is based solely upon looking at sheets for many years.  I would love to have the benefit of some computer analysis that shows what has happened to horses who have run such a substantial top (negative number) in races following the top.
 
although I haven\'t gotten her number in the iowa oaks I saw she regressed to a 96 beyer from the 108 in the cinemine.  she came back really good from the race.  cooled out extremely well and fast.  ate up the following day and had little body soreness.

No doubt she needs time and I would suspect one race before the breeders cup is it.  Bret\'s thinking the alabama or test stakes.
thanks again for the input
danny

[ronwar]

I\'m guessinig that neg 4 is one of, if not the fastest number for a filly/mare.  Good Luck with her!

[imallin]

If you go with the plan of having one more race before the BC, you need to try and determine what number she needs to run in that race in order to be most successful in her following start. I think that means you want to save as much ground on the turns in her next start so that her number will have a good shot to be slower than if she was wide all the way.

Will she have a better shot if her pattern is -4.5 1 -2 or if its -4.5 1 1?

I think the goal probably is to run as slow of a number as possible while getting \'something\' out of the race from a fitness standpoint. Keeping her tucked in and saving ground under a hold and then let her out a notch in the final furlong might set her up nicely for her next start.

if she\'s ridden in such a way where she\'s really \'going for it\', that might compromise her chances in the following race.

[Ian Meyers]

If she were mine, I\'d wait until September (as opposed to August) to run.  I\'d be happier with six weeks into the Breeder\'s Cup rather than 9 or 10.  I wouldn\'t run her off an August \'till October layoff for all the marbles.  I\'m all for spacing, but I think you run the risk she\'s short coming off a 9 week layoff.  JMHO.

[miff]

Assuming Calhoun knows this horse, then let him decide the best course of action going forward.All horses have different recuperative powers so it is foolish to take a spacing approach solely based on numbers.Liked her sprint much better than the route.

Good Luck


Mike

[imallin]

I sort of respectfully disagree with letting the trainer make the decision. The two things you hear the most are \"the horse is kicking down the barn\" and \"he ate up all his feed last night\".

That stuff is all well and good, but, if you are a numbers guy and really respectful of patterns and spacing, you can\'t stray off that path. You can\'t let a trainer tell you \"wow, she recovered faster than i expected, she\'s happy, eating all her food and bouncing off the walls, she wants to run\".

Out of all the thoroughbreds who needed rest after a \'taxing\' pattern, how many of those runners who ran and blew up were \'feeling good\' according to the trainer? There must have been almost all of them.......or, so the trainer thought.

In the long run, you are better to err on the side of caution and race these horses LESS. Remember, less is more.

[miff]

Imallin,


Making decisions SOLELY on performance figures may not be the best approach.Allan Jerkens,for one, scoffs at such stuff.When a horse is doing good, holding his flesh/energy,you race him, when not, you back off.You go off the horse for the most part.Aside from the quartercrack of Big Brown, Tricky just went off of BB\'s actions from his allowance win at GP thru the Belmont. What did the performance figs tell when BB whistled in the Fla Derby, Kentucky Derby and the Preakness off short spacing?

Of course, there are cases when a horse is doing very well and just throws a clunker.Sometimes it is because of racing rigors, but the horse did not present being tired or over the top and the trainer is at a loss to figure out what happened.

The idea that less is better,in all cases, is debatable.


Mike

[smalltimer]

There are exceptions, but statistically most BC races are won on 49 days rest.

[imallin]

I just thought since the OP was asking about spacing on the TG message board, he was already \'all in\' with the spacing concept and i just thought that you want to stay true to that, if that is, in fact, your belief.

The TC is a different animal for the Derby winner, because that\'s really the only time a trainer is obligated to run, even if he doesn\'t want to.

If you believe in spacing i think that you need to really stick to your guns. If your trainer wants to run and the spacing says to rest some more, you could ruin your horse for life if you are wrong.

[P-Dub]

Its great to have an opinion,  and there is really no definitive way to tell if someone is right or wrong.

But the number of people around here that have never ridden a thoroughbred racehorse or have trained a racehorse, sure seem to be experts on how to ride or train these horses.

Everyone is entitled to their opnion, but to say that you shouldn\'t listen to a trainer but instead rely on sheet pattern reading.......with all due respect that sounds a little ridiculous.

[imallin]

There\'s a difference here. The OP has already indicated he\'s on board with sheet reading as a way to manage his horse. He didn\'t come on here and say that he\'s torn and is not sure he wants to manage horses by patterns or on trainers advice.

Has every serious pro horse player trained or ridden thoroughbreds? I didn\'t realize that was a pre-requisite to be able to win serious money as a player.

[miff]

Imallin,

Many trainers have regard for how their horses perform sheet wise. The point that Paul and I made is that it is not possible to SOLELY relay on the figures. Training a racehorse has many facets and for some, using sheet info is only one of them.


Mike