DelawareCap

[APny]

Anyone else really surprised at Hystericaladys huge effort at Delaware on Sunday.  Sheets had her a good bit slower than last year..and then BAM!  Had to run a much faster number than the previous 2\'s this weekend.  It\'s a shame cause the 20-1 horse that the analysis said to put in ran second.  I\'m wondering if the recent figs were flawed or if the horse just really popped for some reason.

[Flighted Iron]

APNY,

  To prevent from sounding like a Monday morning quarterback,I\'ll just say
yes and no. Yes a bit surprised because she could have very well run another
2 and been out and no because she\'s run big figs and why take the chance and
toss her when the key was 20 to 1?(LDM).

  Respectfully,
   Flighted Iron

[Rick B.]

I got tired long ago of getting beat by short-priced horses who supposedly are \"topped-out\" and are a \"bet against\" and \"can\'t win\".

You got a live 20-1 shot, use the short-priced \"no-hoper\" on top for a few bucks -- you\'ll cash, while the folks that are trying to split the handicapping atom console themselves with what a great bet they made tossing the no-hoper.

[miff]

The figures of HL on TG were in close agreement with Rags/Beyer and when such is the case, I found the figs to be very solid.

HR won very easily in her previous start and could have probably gone faster to shave her fig lower. In her 2nd to last start, she warred a blistering pace which caused her to tire late, hence the modest fig there.You have to look at the whole race and it\'s shape to properly evaluate a fig, imo.Figs are facilitated by trips on occasion as they are adversely affected on others.


Mike

[APny]

MIff,

Good point...about looking at the prior trips..but that really makes using the figs tough.  It would be nice to hear Jerry\'s thoughts on evaluatin a fig and wondering if it could have been better if they exerted themselves a bit more. Should we be doing that?

[miff]

AP,

TG does it by indicating if a horse was held late or if there was a war/hot pace. Since it is not possible to quantify such things \"within\" a figure, it is really up to each handicapper to assess the figure for themselves.

Without wanting to get into my personal read of figs, I have learned that all exact figs are not always equal.


Mike

[APny]

I just re-read the analysis and it makes no mention that hystericalady may have had figures that may have been compromised by trip.  In fact the analysis strictly says: \"play against.\"  If I\'m supposed to start handicapping figures, why didnt the analysis make reference to that?  Still curious as to what Jerry would reccomend.

[Lost Cause]

APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I just re-read the analysis and it makes no
> mention that hystericalady may have had figures
> that may have been compromised by trip.  In fact
> the analysis strictly says: \"play against.\"  If
> I\'m supposed to start handicapping figures, why
> didnt the analysis make reference to that?  Still
> curious as to what Jerry would reccomend.


Hey AP,
Sometimes it is just the way a race sets up, regardless of the numbers..Since the pace was slow and Gomez was able to work an outside stalking trip, Hysterical lady won lights out..If the pace was faster maybe some of the others could have closed better but they loped along and sprinted to the wire..I needed Spring Waltz to win that race for a lot of money but after I saw what was happening up front, I pretty much knew I was dead.  When the TG horse on the outside scratched there was no real pace left in the race and that was how the race should have been handicapped.  
I have been a big believer in TGs numbers and have made a lot of money since I started using them for the past 2 years but it is just one part of the equation.  You must handicap how that number was attained (Did the horse get loose on the lead which inflated the number or did the horse benefit from closing off a fast pace in which the number would be inflated again, etc...)
and then you have to handicap what will happen in today\'s race and adjust the numbers accordingly..One of the biggest profit making angles is finding a competitive horse in a race (not necessarily with the best numbers) who will get loose on the lead that gets ignored in the betting..

[TGJB]

First of all, I was live with 3 fillies in the race for about half the pick 4 pool (which was shockingly small, by the way. All stakes pick 4, million dollar race, pool was 53k, I think. Think slots make a difference at Delaware)? None of those fillies were named Hysterical Lady or Unbridled Belle. The second finisher would have been just fine.

My only comment is that horses do things at Delaware (and the other Mid-Atlantic tracks) they don\'t do other places. I will be interested to see whether all the Larry Jones Delaware jump-ups run those figures at other tracks (the one that ran second to Frost King backed up, but he figured to regardless).

[jma11473]

I agree that a lot of questionable things still happen at Delaware, but it appears the huge improvements off the claim have declined a great deal. You used to have Lake (in sprints), Wolfendale, Pino, and others who\'d fire big off the claim. Now Lake is very ordinary off the claim, Wolfendale hardly claims and doesn\'t do much off the claim when he does, and Pino is also ordinary. Jones has been ridiculous but he doesn\'t claim. I guess Walder is still carrying on the tradition, though as always most of his horses are very low odds and would figure even without the extra help.

[Uncle Buck]

I realize this is a highly skilled, figure and methodology oriented discussion forum, but in my opinion you can\'t overanalyze this one. Hystericalady was the first or second classiest gal in the race, was feeling really good on the day and ran a lights out race. If you watch the replay, key your attention to the ISO cam shot of her coming down the stretch. She was the picture of a healthy and happy horse. Ears pricked and motoring right along, dry as a bone. She aired. It happens

Thorograph, Beyer, BRIS - none of these tools can ask the horse - \"Hey babe. You feeling good today?\" Another simple factor is Hollendorfer excells with female equine athletes. Just one of those days where a happy, relatively fast class horse jumped up and aired. I just saw the race on Tivo this morning.

[fkach]

I agree. IMO, she was obviously running better than her figures indicated. Not only that, there was a good chance she was going to get a very favorable trip in the race because she had the most speed. I didn\'t key her because of the 10F. Instead, I keyed against Unbridled Belle because she flipped in the paddock and had such an easy trip last time. Without all the acting up though, I think UB would have probably filled out the exacta. IMO, UB is likely to run better next time out.

[Ill-bred]

Hysterical Lady is the best filly/mare in the country not named Zenyatta.

She enjoyed a considerable speed and class edge over that field. Added distance was the only question.

[Lost Cause]

Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hysterical Lady is the best filly/mare in the
> country not named Zenyatta.
>
> She enjoyed a considerable speed and class edge
> over that field. Added distance was the only
> question.


Did Ginger Punch retire?

[Lost Cause]

There is a possible situation today at Belmont today that I wrote about in my last post.
Probable lone speed with number power that should have very good odds.  Look at the #7 in the sixth...Last two races had excuses, throw out.  Today there is no speed in the race so she should get to the front and then I just have to hope the jock on the # 1 lets her roll along thinking she\'ll quit...

also..not the speed situation above..just like him..
The # 8 in the last race should be played..Has numbers and a great weight break.
Throw out the last two on turf and the last dirt race was a half furlong too long.  He returns to 6 furlongs today on the dirt at what should be good odds at the claiming level that he ran his best races at. Why not..

Good luck everyone..Hopefully we can make some Saratoga money today..