ROTW - For what its worth

[jimbo66]

Had a look at the \"competitor\'s numbers\" and Indian Blessing is even more likely to bounce on their numbers.  tHey have her faster than Ghostzapper, probably the fastest ever, with a negative 3.  (their scale is 3.5 points different).

Hard to bet against a horse that can bounce a lot of points and still win.

But 8-1 on Dominguez here is worth a shot.

[Rick B.]

ROTW has been worth exactly what you paid for it for the last six weeks or so -- it seems to have turned into \"Weekly Halfhearted Attempt To Beat \'Supertrainer\'\".

It was Frankel for about 3 straight weeks, with little success; Baffert was the target this week.

[MonmouthGuy]

I have been running an ROI on the ROTW since March 1 and it isn\'t pretty.

[richiebee]

MG

...its a learning tool, not an investment strategy.

The \"wisdom\" of the last 2 weeks ROTW has been trying to beat a high quality
highly weighted female runner based on the bounce theory.

Makes me wonder if anyone has ever taken a \"gender based\" approach to said
theory.

Graded stakes are sexy, but there are only maybe 300(?) of them run each year.
I have always thought that there should be more variation (or variety) in the
races selected as ROTW; that is the learning tool might be more edumacational
if some weeks the ROTW was a dirt cheap claiming race or a maiden race-- the
type of races which are more commonly seen by most horseplayers.

[fkach]

>Makes me wonder if anyone has ever taken a \"gender based\" approach to said
theory. <

I saw a study like that, but I can\'t recall where.

I tend to think analyzing the details of an individual horse gets much better results. I doubt many people are shocked that Indian Blessing is running faster figures sprinting on dirt than in routes or on artificial. She screamed \"distance limitations\" as a 2YO when she was running very fast paces and crawling home. The difference was that there was no one near talented enough at the time to get to her at those longer distances.  

One thing is certain. This is one of the most talented groups of 3YO fillies I have seen.

Indian Blessing
Zaftig
Proud Spell
Eight Belles (RIP)
Music Note

[miff]

Fkach,


You may not have seen Storm Mesa, she kinda lives in the same area code as the other 3 yr old fillies.

Mike

[fkach]

Miff,

I haven\'t seen her yet.  

If there\'s another horses at that level, it\'s even more amazing.

[ronwar]

If you include the older group, the Distaff is shaping up as a classic if everyones makes it there healthy

[firmturf]

My only knock on the ROTW this week was why pick a 6 horse race? I won\'t play 6 horse races simply out of protest, Grade I or not.

Cby had an excellent Claiming Crown card that had full races and after downloading the Thoro for it Saturday I found plenty of overlays.

It\'s a shame that card didn\'t get a little more \"love\".

[high roller]

my knock on the rotw is why jerry keeps knocking horse\'s with his bounce theory (actually the ragozin bounce theory) when the trainer feels the horse is acting great and has no concerns about running.

jerry is gambling thousands of dollars of his and his client\'s money as he thinks he knows more than the trainer!

[fkach]

IMO the issue is not whether horses that just ran a very fast figure often don\'t duplicate it. That much is certain.

The issue is also not whether horses can wear down from an especially tough race or series of tough races. THey do. Handicappers have been writing about form cycles ever since the first books on the subject came out.

The issue is assigning the probabilities of any given horse not duplicating it\'s recent fast figure(s) properly in order to judge whether there\'s value elsewhere or even on the horse in question.

I have long maintained that if you don\'t look at trips, race conditions, pace, and the specifics of the individual horse in question, you will wildly overestimate the chances of a horse bouncing when it earned it\'s fast figure(s) under legitimate conditions. That\'s because the ones that earned them under especially favorable conditions rarely duplicate them, but the others often do.

I realize this is redboarding, but if you\'ll cut me some slack....

I thought it was fairly obvious that Indian Blessing was likely to run another very big effort yesterday. She was a very fast 2YO that looked like she might be better sprinting. They finally sprinted her on dirt and she ran a very fast race with a legitimate trip. How was that a shock? She\'s a very good sprinter!  Eventually she\'ll wear down from her campaign, but there was nothing about her prior race or training since then that suggested yesterday would be the day. Sure sometimes horses like that throw in a clinker and you will cash, but all horses throw in clinkers. That does not mean it was always a performance bounce or that you had the probabilities right.  

Sweet Hope on the other hand wired a much softer field from the rail last out after shaking loose on a track that seemed to be kind to speed. Nothing in her overall record suggested she was that good. IMO she was much more likely to not duplicate her last very fast race under much tougher conditions.    

I don\'t know what the figures will show and I\'m not sure it matters much anyway because different people had these various races faster/slower than others to begin with. But I think an analysis somewhere along the lines of what I am suggesting is almost certain to outperform dogma.

[TGJB]

Rick B-- Feel free to say something constructive at any time. Picking your spots and taking shots is easy.

By the way, the first steps will be taken over the next week in an attempt to stop the guys who, according to you, are not using drugs. Sleeping giants have awoke, and some of them have big teeth.

[Rick B.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rick B-- Feel free to say something constructive
> at any time. Picking your spots and taking shots
> is easy.

Seems like we both do it -- there were at least two other \"shots\" taken at the ROTW in the same thread, and you chose to only call me out. \"Easy\" isn\'t necessarily a bad thing, though.

I call it as I see it. Whether you realize it or not, in recent weeks, ROTW has seemingly turned into a (mostly) failed attempt at \"beating the supertrainer\". If you say that\'s a shot, OK -- it\'s your dojo, Sensei -- but am I wrong? Or is it just coincidence that the low-priced \"bounce / play against\" candidate in recent weeks is trained by Frankel, Baffert, et.al.? (Whose horse ends up winning the ROTW outright, or busting up the exacta.)  

I criticized ROTW in the past when some lame 5 horse race from Aqueduct (the Ft. Marcy?) was used, when other, better races with fuller fields were available. I got called out for it then, too -- here and elsewhere. Probably deserved it -- ROTW is free, after all. What do I want for nothing -- right?

Immediately after that, though, ROTW went on an incredible tear, for almost 3 months, if I recall correctly, and no cheapie races with short fields, either -- ROTW was tackling tough races with full fields.

And ROTW was winning. No, not just winning. Crushing. You were displaying the power of superior information combined with keen, unbiased analysis, and man, did TG shine. (Maybe MonmouthGuy or someone else was keeping track, and can share some ROI numbers with us from that time period).

And I complemented you guys for it, saying something along the lines of, \"I knew you guys were better than what you were showing before\".

You must have missed that. Funny how that works.

[spa]

IMO.........the ROTW is the best tool in racing. I\'d pay big money for a Mercedes of the ROTW. Spa

[analizethis]

ROTW has over the years been the best handicapping tool available both in terms of teaching the theories behind the TG numbers and in terms of identifying profitable overlays.  

  The change that I believe has occurred traces back to the affiliation with TVG and the need to limit the analysis to their races. I wonder if there has been any pressure (either overtly or otherwise) from the powers that be at TVG to dictate the selection of the ROTW.

  TVG, in general,is so oriented to touting selection in specific races (pick 4/pick 6) that it would only make sense for them to be very selective in what they want analyzed on the air.

  Having said that, I still believe that the ROTW is a valuable educational tool but a little less so as an immediate handicapping tool.