I clearly made a bad read on this but I thought he had been given the proper rest after the big effort and the fact that he showed a healthy overall pattern (i.e. 3 point improvement overall from his 2 year old top, back to his 3 year old top quickly, etc) suggested that he had a better shot than normal of pairing that top or regressing only slighly which made him a solid choice.
Clearly the wrong analysis on my part.