Hey Chris, Derby 2003

[OPM]

Hey Chris, do you still believe that any horse running sub 6 as a 2yr old will not win the Derby?  I see Pletcher has this year\'s Stephentown in Indy Dancer.  Oh, Congaree will either be dead or retired within 6 months.  I hope he doesn\'t die but there is no way he withstand these types of #\'s.  Maybe we can get on betfair.com and give 30-1 that he won\'t make it to BC

[derby1592]

OPM,

I don\'t know if I ever really believed that any 2yr running sub-6 will not win the Derby I just made the observation that it has not yet happened and that recently a lot of highly-touted Derby hopefuls fell into that category making it an interesting angle to consider when betting the Derby future book. If I really felt strongly about it I guess I could go out on betfair.com and propose a Derby future wager that no sub-6 2yo would win the 2003 Derby. I imagine I could get some takers on that one but I don\'t think I am ready to make that wager.

Every year the 2yos get faster and faster and this angle will really be put to the test with Vindication and Toccet both looking like legitimate Derby contenders and likely heavy favorites in the future book.

Regarding Congaree - I don\'t know how long he will hold together but he has been very impressive in his last two. It will be interesting to see what Baffert does with him. I would imagine the Big Cap is the next target with maybe one prep before that. Sounds like it might be a good time to open up a betfair.com account...

Chris

[cheapclaimer]

Perhaps if T-G were to check 2yo stats for sires with at least two crops and compare the average tops to see if the averages have become faster as a whole. Then we might be able to move the scale to say a 5 and change for a no go for the Ky D.

Haven\'t had time to peruse the figs the last six weeks or so (post B.C. actually). Any comment on my part would be complete b.s. I\'ll have to investigate.

[P-Dub]

I saw where Baffert is pointing him to the Donn Hdcp on 2/23.  Its a GR.1 but the purse is half of what the Big Cap is, as well as a furlong shorter. Why not the Big Cap?? He obviously runs well at SA (2 for 2) and the purse is $1,000,000. Is he worried about the distance? He sure looked good while rating last week. My buddies and I make a road trip every year and we would love to see him run on March 1. Any thoughts as to why Baffert would go to GP and not SA??

[cheapclaimer]

Author: P-Dub
Date:   01-07-03 08:23

I saw where Baffert is pointing him to the Donn Hdcp on 2/23. Its a GR.1 but the purse is half of what the Big Cap is, as well as a furlong shorter. Why not the Big Cap?? He obviously runs well at SA (2 for 2) and the purse is $1,000,000. Is he worried about the distance? He sure looked good while rating last week. My buddies and I make a road trip every year and we would love to see him run on March 1. Any thoughts as to why Baffert would go to GP and not SA??

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Baffy is seriously considering Congaree for a shot at the $6 mill in Dubai a few eeks later.

[HP]

Chris wrote,

\"Every year the 2yos get faster and faster and this angle will really be put to the test with Vindication and Toccet both looking like legitimate Derby contenders and likely heavy favorites in the future book.\"

If this angle is put to the test this year (no sub 6 2yo will win the Derby) I would bet that it won\'t be via these two horses. Especially Toccet, who has the extra negative of being heavily campaigned as a 2yo.

I don\'t do futures betting (I have a hard enough time dealing with what\'s in front of me) but I\'m not aware of any \"sub 6\" types I would consider a major threat. We\'ll have to wait and see. HP

[Silver Charm]

Hell, Charismatic never ran a \"sub 6\" until 13 days before the Derby. So guys let the search begin!!

[JimP]

Which 3 year olds this year have already achieved the sub 6 level?

[OPM]

Vindication, Toccett, Hold that Tiger, Kafwain, Pletchers horses that won on Sat at GP, there is a long list.

[OPM]

Let\'s not forget S. Flag Flying, Composure, Wando, WhyWhyWhy, Zavata, etc.