Mr. Fantasy and the Gotham

[jimbo66]

Smalltimer,

I want to personally thank you for solving the synthetics problem.  From now on, I will just subtract three points.  I love your solution.  Now that you solved that simple problem, will you be moving on to the economy, peace in the middle east, and whether god exists?  

I gladly accept your \"non-expert\" comment.  I certainly am not one.  And you don\'t need to re-post my comments on synthetics, as I stand by them.  I can\'t figure out the translation to dirt, and also don\'t believe one exists.  

Your comments, post-race, on I Want Revenge, don\'t make sense, but that\'s ok.  In your post to Miff you mention your figs showing Mr. Fantasy 3 lengths faster than I Want Revenge, This is the post where you mention lots of raw times (which BTW don\'t matter and you let everybody on this board know that not only are you not an expert but rather a neophyte).

If, on your figures, which adjusted for the surface switch made Mr. Fantasy ONLY 3 lengths faster, it seems strange that you then say that \"pace analysis\" and the projected slow pace made it clear that I Want Revenge would \"easily beat\" Mr. Fantasy, since Mr. Fantasy figured to be on that slow pace.  

But all of that doesn\'t really matter.  You apparently have figured out how easy it is to translate the synthetic figures to dirt figures, add in some home-made pace analysis and easily pick the winner (all about 2 to 3 days AFTER the race happens).

Congratulations and I look forward to your next discovery.....

[smalltimer]

jimbo,
I\'m sorry if I QUOTED you and emphasized your confusion with synthetic to dirt.  I\'d prefer you quote me than insert words that I never said, such as \"pace analysis\" and \"easily beat \" Mr. Fantasy.  If you\'re gonna INFER I said it, then prove it by citing one of my posts. Don\'t just change my words to serve your purpose.

I\'m flattered you appreciate my advancement of understanding the synthetic to dirt dilemma. Considering I didn\'t just mail it in when artificials came around like you apparently have kinda/sorta illustrates your superior intellect and my neophyte status.  To say that figuring out the synthetic to dirt transition doesn\'t exist simply insults anyone who\'s willing to take the time to accept that challenge, but more important, be willing to change.  Maybe you should just try taking 3 points off and see if that improves your chances, sounds like it couldn\'t hurt.  

I\'m not going to involve the others on the board and what their opinion of me is. The opinion of others doesn\'t make a difference to me, we\'re all big boys, or at least we should try to act like it. I\'m sure that JB would be more than happy if you and I just let this go and chalk it up as a difference of opinions. As far as I\'m concerned, you started off disparaging me and the only person I\'m willing to take crap from on this board is JB, or someone involved with Thoro. Even Miff shows respectable boundaries when he criticizes me.  I respect him for that... even when he\'s tried to convince me (to no avail) that I\'m wrong. (laughing here).  
   
As far as I\'m concerned, you and I should let this go.  You\'re one of the main guys on this forum, and you have good insights, synthetic notwithstanding. It does a disservice to the other guys as we keep tossing negative comments back and forth. If you\'d like to swap insults, let\'s do it in some private messages, or if you\'d like, I\'ll give you my cell number and you can call and insult me personally, then we can really tell each other what we think.  Fair enough? I think the room has seen enough of this back and forth business, I know I have.  

My personal economic plan is currently superior to Geitner\'s.  If you\'d like, I\'ll be happy to fax you a copy of my Sunday superfectas at Tampa Bay.  One ticket is for a 1-2-8-11-12 superfecta box and the other is a STRAIGHT 1-2-8-11 superfecta ticket for .10 cents.  Each copy paid $ 1,150.07. $ 12.10 wager and
$ 2,300.14 returned.  Not a bad ROI for such a neophyte.
Have a good one, and feel free to take me up on my fax offer.....But, if you do accept my offer, I expect you to inform the room that I did send it to you in good faith.  
Have a good one jimbo...now can we move on from this little spat?

[TGJB]

I\'m not only going to be happy you knock it off, I\'m going to insist you do. Feel free to post your opinions about races in advance from now on. Do not post them or your reasoning afterward unles you have done so before the fact.

[smalltimer]

JB,
Sounds fair to me.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I\'m not only going to be happy you knock it off,
> I\'m going to insist you do. Feel free to post your
> opinions about races in advance from now on. Do
> not post them or your reasoning afterward unless
> you have done so before the fact.

That can apply to a lot of people.

Curious that the person acting with civility was told to knock it off, while the one tossing around insults gets a pass.

[TGJB]

I haven\'t been paying attention closely enough to know who has been civil and who has not, just enough to know the food fight is leaving stains on the walls. I believe the post I responded to stated both of them should knock it off, my \"you\" was the collective kind.

[P-Dub]

No problem JB.

It did go long enough,and was starting to get nasty. You\'ve set me straight when I\'ve deserved it and stepped in here appropriately.

[Flighted Iron]

miff,
  If so,then that puts IC at roughly 3.5 effort. 2nd time back off a deuce
sprint and close up front.Talk about slow pace,IC went 25 2/5,50 flat,1:14
and also came home in 30.Mcgaughey sounded coyly optimistic.Tell me,do you think
it\'s possible for this horse to get a 3.5s_pace and come back with a 1,also What is a reasonable bounce for IC (counting R/T airfare and all)?

 
mjs

[Flighted Iron]

Meant the bounce for IWR.

[miff]

Iron,

Predicting a bounce and by how much is very tough.Horses bounce and still win, that\'s my bottom line. Who wins is all that matters to me.

Horses react negatively from their previous effort/efforts for many reasons.One possibility is certainly the horses inability to quickly recover from the exertion of the prior big race/races.Then there other reasons which have nothing to do with prior exertion.Assuming his last was negative -2/3,statistical history says he\'s cooked. I don\'t see unfiltered statistics as being a predictor of the future.

In the case of IWR, I think they will train him very lightly for the Wood looking for a nice effort but not a duplicate one.He has already shown the ability to win the Derby with his last effort. Measuring just how extreme his forward move was is complicated by those slow 6\'s out in Cali.I believe he will go back in the Wood but hope it\'s not an X. That would make him an automatic toss in the Derby at any price imo.Should he regress a couple of points and run fairly well, I would consider him a legit danger in the Derby if he trains up well and draws a reasonable spot.

Understanding that the Wood is not his primary goal,I would have to bet against him in that spot.Resiliency is not something found in a number on a piece of paper, that is found on the racetrack. His next start should tell the story as to his possible derby prospects.Good Luck!


Mike

[Cartman]

Has anyone published the figure for Quality Road in the FOY?

I thought he ran a better race than IWR. He fought off a series of better speed horses early and then easily held off a bunch of better closers. I know the race looked fast. If he runs in the Wood, that will be some prep race.

[Flighted Iron]

Jerkens confirmed QR for the Fla Derby.Posted in the DRF last night.

mjs