Mr. Fantasy and the Gotham

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- a drink at Siro\'s, assuming it is still open (they\'re trying to sell it). You can even get one with the umbrellas and stuff.

[imallin]

I don\'t think KFs comment is far off base. Despite \'rating\' while head and head, there was a point when the two horses were asked for their best. Once the winner sprinted away, its really hard for that \'dueled\' horse to hold 2nd. He got beat a lip for the place spot. I don\'t agree that he wins by five, but he wins if IWR isn\'t in the race. As far as sour grapes goes, he does concede that the winner was best, a lot of trainers won\'t even do that, props for a trainer who actually admitted in public that he wasn\'t best.

[TGJB]

As I have said before, if the scale is off, there is also then the issue of the horses going East-West, not just the other way. In the big Cap alone, Cowboy Cal and Monba had already run figures as good or better out there than in the east, and Einstein, despite coming off a pair of big efforts, ran pretty well out there yesterday.

[Josephus]

How about this interpretation?  The \"low\" Ca figs are actually \"big number\" efforts for the horse that don\'t show up because he\'s struggling with the surface( this might be especially true for horses that run on the pace). Then when he runs the big \"jump up\" fig on diet, he doesn\'t run back to it, because it may have been the 3rd or 4th big effort in a row, the first 3 or 4 not being evident because they are disguised  by the low numbers on the syn tracks, and he\'s essentially shot his wad and never comes back to that form.

[jimbo66]

JB,

It does go both ways, not \"east to west\" and \"west to east\", but rather dirt to synthetic and synthetic to dirt.  I won\'t drudge up the post BC thread, but I think I started that thread.  Many of the fast dirt horses got trounced by \"synthetic horses\" with seemingly inferior figures.  Ventura dusting Indian Blessing, Zenyatta dusting many faster dirt fillies and Stardom Bound beating many with faster dirt figures, all come to mind right away.

Not sure about your Einstein, Cowboy Cal and Monba points.  Monba got his east coast figure on synthetics, Einstein and Cowboy Cal have more turf/sythetic figures than dirt figures.  (Einstein does have some dirt figures, but the fast ones seem to be Churchill).

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- Einstein ran his tops on dirt at CD and GP, Cowboy ran 1 point off his top at CD, which nobody I know has suggested is similar to turf or synthetic. My point is that in fact it is a surface question, not an East West one, as Miff and others have suggested. From that point it becomes a question of whether it is about scale, or because the synthetics (specifically Pro-ride and Poly) are different surfaces, and dirt horses just don\'t run over them. The explosion-disappear phenomenon and horses running just fine going west suggest it\'s not the scale.

My own theory is that for whatever reason, running and training over that stuff acts as a conditioner (there are those who believe that happens over dead rails). When horses that like dirt get off it they explode, and ruin themselves.

[bobphilo]

The impression that I Want Revenge accelerated and “sprinted away” from Mr. Fantasy in the stretch is really an illusion caused by the difference in the 2 horses relative speeds. What really happened was that IWR was simply able to continue at his same even pace and MF was just unable to keep up. This can be verified by the fractions for the race.
Both horses actually had a dream trip – being able to take an easy lead while setting a slow even pace. IWR was simply in better shape to take advantage of it.
I believe that the popular notion that horses tire on a slow pace simply because another horse happens to be near them is contradicted by the principles of exercise physiology. Horses can indeed put pressure on their rivals and that is with speed. If the pace is slow it’s like saying a boxer was knocked out by a weak slow punch.

As I said, I’ve always had a lot of respect for McLaughlin but his statement is not only inaccurate but to attribute MF’s poor performance to the presence of a horse that he was just unable to keep up with actually does a disservice to the horse and makes him sound like a quitter. I guess one could say that without IWR in the race he might have turned the early pace into a super slow crawl instead of just a slow pace and made it impossible for Imperial Council to catch him, but almost any horse could win under such extremely favorable circumstances. That\'s damning the horse with faint praise. He was simply beaten by 2 better horses on the day.

Bob

[miff]

JB,

Don\'t know what others are inferring, but BEFORE they changed over to synths in Cali,I questioned the figs of many \"slow\" TG Cali runners that came East and outran their previous TG figs.

Your argument is also contradicted by the fact both Rags and Beyer, converted to TG,have many Cali runners faster than TG.It\'s not just a surface thing. You may want to spend just a few minutes to take a look at what is being said here.


Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- I haven\'t just looked at this in terms of what is said here, I\'ve looked at a whole lot of sheets specifically in the terms discussed here.

Andy and Len used claiming pars for a long time after I stopped (they both have stopped now as well). Pars will cause figure inflation at tracks with a high claiming scale (for example, a 15k claimer at a small track has some of the best horses on the grounds, a similar race at SA has a 6 horse field of mostly Cal breds, and they are some of the worst horses on the grounds. The best horses at a major track are much better than the best ones at a minor track, but the bad ones are generally just bad at both-- the differential is much less, though the claiming prices are much different. This is why for years we-- and Friedman-- were able to pull 15 claimers out of Maryland and win races in NY for 30k).

Again--

1-- I have bought many horses in the east based on their numbers and sent them west. Several of these have ben older horses that didn\'t figure to develop much (if any) more. Some of them were Even The Score, Super Frolic, and Student Council. All earned at least the same figures in California-- in fact ETS ran a new top out there. If the scale was off, they would figure to have not received as good TG numbers out there, and not to have accomplished as much as they did.

I know that Beyer had SC and SF \"jumping up\" when they got to California. Don\'t know how Len treated them. I would be interested in seeing.

2-- If it was simply a question of scale, it would mean those horses that I had jumping up coming east (and switching surfaces) weren\'t really jumping up. If that were true, they would have no reason to fall apart afterward-- they would at least run back to their tops when they ran on DIRT again. I would like to get a more complete list before posting the sheets, but when I do you will see that the only one tht you could say MIGHT have behaved that way is Arson Squad, and that one is complicated for a number of reasons, one of which you mentioned. Jimbo will lose his bet-- I\'m stealing.

3-- You have had a problem with the FL figures for some time. We have reviewed those several times, wrote some computer programs to do some research, and finally adjusted them, as you might have noticed. We  are in the process of running similar studies for all circuits. We did so much work checking the European figures you wouldn\'t believe it-- even after my dialogue with Jimbo. We eventually took 1/2 point off some figures-- there was no justification for taking off more than that.

The point is we do take this stuff very seriously. I spend a lot of time thinking about it and looking at the sheets of the horses in question.

[miff]

JB,

Thanks for your reply.I understand the par thing et al and Finger Lakes seems to make better sense lately.

Good to know that things are reviewed from time to time.I look at tons of figs and races. Occasionally,the figs are tough to swallow when evaluatiing and converting them for comparative purposes. Incidentally, I have never questioned  a TG fig unless I\'ve done the day myself and seen the entire card.


Mike

[Michael D.]

imallin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t think KFs comment is far off base. Despite
> \'rating\' while head and head, there was a point
> when the two horses were asked for their best.
> Once the winner sprinted away, its really hard for
> that \'dueled\' horse to hold 2nd. He got beat a lip
> for the place spot. I don\'t agree that he wins by
> five, but he wins if IWR isn\'t in the race. As far
> as sour grapes goes, he does concede that the
> winner was best, a lot of trainers won\'t even do
> that, props for a trainer who actually admitted in
> public that he wasn\'t best.


Mr F set an average pace over a strip that is generally kind to speed, yet still managed to get reeled in by a horse running against the grain. He wasn\'t 2nd best yesterday, and wasn\'t going to win by 5 if IWR wasn\'t entered.

Kiaran\'s comments were way off base.

The guy is an exceptional trainer however, and he will learn from the Taqarub and Mr F defeats. I expect better from both horses down the road.

[smalltimer]

I\'m with Jerry on I Want Revenge.  The only 2 nice races were with very soft paces.  The 3 races that had near par pace, he hung all the way home.  Not a good pace scenario for IWR if he makes it to Churchill.

By the way, Mr. Fantasy ran 2-1-09 at 1 and 1/16th at 1:45.1.
Mr. Fantasy ran Saturday 1 and 1/16th at 1:44.1

IWR ran 3 races at 1/16th in Cal and ran 1:42.2, 1:41.4, 1:42.1.  
Why would anyone be surprised that he would drill Mr. Fantasy all day long?

A Cal shipper with some tactical speed moving into a race with a soft pace?

[jimbo66]

Smalltimer,

You are way off base with your post race analysis on I Want Revenge.  If you think that race was about \"soft paces\" you are on the wrong topic, on the wrong board.  (and you are nowhere Jerry on your view, read his posts again).  

\"his only two good races were with soft paces.  He doesn\'t have two good races.  He has one HUGE race, on dirt.  His synthetic races were all the same, give or take, regardless of any pace issues.  

It is a simple choice the handicapper has to make as far as I Want Revenge goes.

Choose either

#1 -  He ran a huge top first time dirt, somewhere around a 6 to 8 point top I guess.  The combination of a huge new top and a negative number this early in his 3 year old season, off of the much slower earlier numbers, makes him the classic \"bounce candidate\' and he may never race that fast again, or at least not for a while.  And he will be a huge bet against in his next race, as the favorite and then not even go to the Derby.  (not to put words in Jerry\'s mouth, but this is what his view is, nothing to do with pace.  THis is why he proposed the bet he did on the board\".  The evidence of other horses with these huge tops, first time dirt, who never run back to are Black Seventeen and Monterrey Jazz.

#2 - I Want Revenge is a dirt horse, with a dirt stride, with dirt breeding, who was racing on synthetic surfaces and therefore wasn\'t racing at his best.  This, conbined with an issue in the scales on TG between synthetic and dirt races, makes I Want Revenge\'s huge new top, not as big a new top.  And since he is now fast enough to win the derby, will have 4 weeks into his next prep, then 4 weeks into the derby, has tactical speed, distance breeding and has been battle tested in a couple stakes races (on the snythetics), he is a very strong contender for the derby.  And, oh by the way, on the numbers, he beat the best prep field so far, and he trounced them badly doing it.  Bounce schmounce.  

Choose your camp.  But leave pace out of your equation.

[Flighted Iron]

TGJB,

 DRF chart has IWR 3 wide 1st turn.If I may,what was his path for turn 2?

mjs

[big18741]

jimbo66 Wrote:
------------------------------------------------------
> #2 - I Want Revenge is a dirt horse, with a dirt
> stride, with dirt breeding, who was racing on
> synthetic surfaces and therefore wasn\'t racing at
> his best.  This, conbined with an issue in the
> scales on TG between synthetic and dirt races,
> makes I Want Revenge\'s huge new top, not as big a
> new top.  And since he is now fast enough to win
> the derby, will have 4 weeks into his next prep,
> then 4 weeks into the derby, has tactical speed,
> distance breeding and has been battle tested in a
> couple stakes races (on the snythetics), he is a
> very strong contender for the derby.  And, oh by
> the way, on the numbers, he beat the best prep
> field so far, and he trounced them badly doing it.
>  Bounce schmounce.  
>
> Choose your camp.  But leave pace out of your
> equation.


The best prep field on the numbers showed up in the FOY-not the Gotham.

Pace will matter in the Derby.IWR will have to be versatile enough to come from farther back and deal with traffic or wide.No way he gets the same trip as in the Gotham -sitting second in the clear on a 48 half.

No doubt IWR gets a Gotham figure good enough to win a Derby in most years,but do you want him running that fast on March 7th?