Larry Jones

[P-Dub]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Jimbo no need to fret about Pool 1 bets there is
> still Pool 2 and Dunkirk is stting there at a
> juicy 6-1 off that 1:01 breeze today.
>

I would have a hard time calling any horse at 6-1 \"juicy\" in mid March. Its still a long way from the starting gate. How many favorites are even 3-1 in the Derby??

Tell me you\'re joking.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

6-1 is a ridiculous underlay on Dunkirk.  For Dunkirk to even race in the derby, he likely has to win the Florida derby (graded earnings issue).  So, by betting him now in the futures, you are betting a Florida Derby - Kentucky Derby win parlay.

Let\'s say He figures maybe 3-2 or so in the Florida Derby as he will face Quality Road and some other pretty good horses.  That means if he wins impressively and goes off at say 4-1 or so in the Kentucky Derby, the parlay price would be $25.00 or 11.5 to 1.  Almost double the current offered 6-1.  And this doesn\'t take into consideration the chance he gets hurt.

As you look at the races so far, I can make a case that the only value in pool 2 might be the field.  All the favorites have reasonable knocks against them.

Old Fashioned - appears distance challenged
Friesan Fire - probably ran a negative number today which makes him a bounce candidate, plus today\'s race is the only number he has run that gives him a number that wins the derby and it was on a wet track which he is well bred for.
Pioneer of the Nile - Will not have raced on dirt this year, nor does he have the breeding or stride for it.
I Want Revenge - a likely bounce candidate off the freak gotham number
Quality Road - huge 1 turn number, but still not proven around 2 turns.
Dunkirk - tough for him to get into the derby starting gate, not to mention the complete lack of a 2 year old foundation.  If curlin couldn\'t overcome it, you really want to bet that this guy is better than Curlin?

gimme a fast horse with no knocks?

[Flighted Iron]

jimbo66,

 \"She\'s every jockey\'s dream,\" said Borel. \"I think she\'s the best thing in the country right now.


   \"The Kentucky Derby will be in the discussion,\" said Wiggins. \"We\'ll have to think about it.\"

Gimme the knocks?

mjs

[Silver Charm]

But my Palm Meadows Trackman said the Dunkirk 5F breeze in 101 was \"the best he has ever seen.Destroyed his workmate\"

With tanks blazzing and machines crushing everything in their path Dunkirk marchs on.

[miff]

Track was listed as good but was very dull/slow all day.OF had no excuse unless he was under trained or did not care for the surface. Regardless of the fig, a common performance at best(pace was hot early).Has not demonstrated the ability to get the last 1/8 th in his races except for the very slow paced Remsen. Faster on TG than elsewhere.Not improving at all,imo.

Paint a bulls eye on this fraud!


Mike

[miff]

\"Then again, why anybody would want to read any of my postings after my tout of Hello Broadway for the Derby earlier today, is beyond me.


...did not help that he was taken back to last and sent 7 wide into the first turn.Seen him train,he\'s much better than that.

Mike

[jimbo66]

Not sure if a 5 furlong 1:01 move can be the best workout ever.  I don\'t care how easily he did it, 1:01 isn\'t fast.

[jimbo66]

Just guessing, but looks like she ran another figure in the 0 range yesterday.  If so, she will have run two really fast figures in a row for a 3 year old filly relatively early in the season.

Fillies against colts, 1 1/4, on dirt, in May of their 3 year old season, is still a tall order.  20 horse field, she won\'t get a trip like yesterday.  

But hey, she won\'t look dissimilar to eight belles of last year, as Eight belles ran a few 1\'s in a row, relatively tightly spaced, coming into the derby.

However, Eight Belles was running against an AWFUL groupo of 3 year old colts, with the exception of Big Brown.

This crop of 3 year old colts is much much stronger.  Negative 3 and changes for Quality Road and I Want Revenge, untapped potential with Dunkirk, and probably another negative territory horse with Friesan Fire.  And we still have another round of preps to go.  If memory serves me right, only Big Brown had run a negative number last year.

[Silver Charm]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> she won\'t get a trip like yesterday.

No but she gets four pounds Derby Day which adds another point to those 0\'s and nobody who was mentioned so far has paired anything, yet....
 
> If memory serves me right, only Big Brown had run a negative number
> last year.

Hey Byrn

Hal Wiggins goes to the same church as my dad in Lou,Ky and from what I hear is a good man. I hope he runs. I hope she wins. And I hope they make Shane Sellers present them the Garland of Roses.......

[Flighted Iron]

I hate to split hairs jimbo,but all those you mentioned made your recent list
of horses that can be knocked.

Borel was gushing like Charley at the Wonka factory.Her breeding seems to support
she\'s probably not distance challenged and she has a nice tight fig pattern
working.(depending on her number yesterday of course).Hoping she makes the derby
gate and is dismissed dur to her gender.

good luck,
mjs

[bobphilo]

What was most significant about the work is that he finished the last quarter in 23 and change and demolished his workmate.
You are correct though, that workouts, are not by themselves good indicators of a horse\'s ability. They are, however, often useful in determining whether a horse, who has already proven himself in races, is holding form, so Dunkirk\'s work is a good sign for those that already like his chances.  

Bob

[jimbo66]

Flighted Iron,

You are correct, those that I mentioned that are faster than the filly, like Quality Road and I Want Revenge do have knocks.  And I guess you are right, she doesn\'t really have a true knock.  Pairing up a fast number isn\'t a knock.  She is a quality filly for sure, and if she runs in the Kentucky Oaks, she will absolutely trounce Stardom Bound.  I wouldn\'t take Stardom Bound +4 lengths in a matchup bet with RAchel Alexandra.  Good luck with her, if she turns out to be your bet.

I have taken a closer look at Quality Road\'s sheet today and he doesn\'t really have to bounce, despite the negative 3 and change.  Didn\'t realize the 2 year old race was a \"0\".  He has improved 3 points this year to the negative 3, which is in line with the average improvement from 2 to 3 of Elusive Quality progeny.  Granted, this is a little skewed because he ran the \"0\" pretty late in his 2 year old year.  Still, the negative 3 is only a 3 point new top.  If he pairs up or runs something near it in the Florida Derby, he will then have 5 weeks to get back to the top in the Derby, which makes this horse very formidable IMHO, albeit lightly seasoned.  He hasn\'t run around 2 turns which is a problem, and Elusive Quality was a miler, but we saw with Smarty Jones and last year\'s BC Classic winner that Elusive Quality\'s can get a distance with the right female side. Can  Any breeding experts out there shed some light on the dam side of the pedigree.  At first glance, from a non-pedigree expert, the Strawberry Road damsire should help with stamina and the dam being a full to ajina, who won at various distances also might be OK.

Thoughts?

BTW, this guy against Dunkirk is going to be a very good matchup next week.

[TreadHead]

Strawberry Road - offspring out of his dams only have a 7.38f avg winning distance in stakes races and only 2.9% of stakes wins have been at Triple Crown distances.  Just a stat, but that\'s what it is.

[richiebee]

Knock!Knock!Knocks-- Freisan Fire

FF has had 3 perfect trips in his 3 FG stakes wins.

How long can FF\'s luck continue?

[Cartman]

I don\'t know how far Quality Road wants to stretch out, but I like him a lot better than Dunkirk based on what they have done to date. In my opinion, Dunkirk is the most overhyped horse this spring even if he\'s a good prospect.