Wood

[P-Dub]

Aside from the slow start,  it looked like IWR took a pretty good bump mid-stretch.  Didn\'t even phase this horse.  Very professional looking ride,  I don\'t care who was in there.

Hard to believe Gomez gets off of POTN.  He\'s a West Coast jockey riding for the leading WC horse for a top WC trainer. I know he rides everywhere but believe he sticks with Baffert.

Derby favorite will be either QR or IWR. Dunkirk will not be favored. I think he\'ll go off higher than you think. Around 10-1.

[TGJB]

Yeah, Alan said the same thing before IWR got to the first turn.

The theory in saying this performance is better than it looked (aside from making a mental adjustment for the OP) is that he was saving energy because he didn\'t get to run for most of the race. Take a look at the last 100 yards and tell me whether IWR has a lot of energy left-- is he drawing away from the other two (slow) horses? Looks all out to me.

We\'ll see what the figure is, but I suspect it\'s going to be a pretty good backward move. And I also suspect this colt won\'t come out of this one as good as the last-- for whatever reason, horses coming off lifetime tops often look and act great, but come out of the next race tired, even if they don\'t run nearly as hard (fast).

[jimbo66]

Jerry

I hear you.  And your view on this is not surprising (your buddy len agrees with you as well).  When iwr got a hole, he spurted through, opened up 1.5 lengths and held it there under a hand ride.  We will see in 4 weeks, but I believe you are going to be wrong on this horse.  Imho he runs well in the derby and haa a good shot to win with a trip.  I believe as the field currently looks, iwr is one of only about 5 horses that are capable of winning without an aberrational result (see giacomo).

[TGJB]

I agree with you about it being around 5, and you\'re right, I\'m not counting IWR, though he obviously has a chance. I think QR\'s 2yo top, extra rest, and second big number (3 out of 4 lifetime) give him a better shot, just between the two favorites.

I make our bet about an even money proposition from here-- how\'s that for taking a stand?

I wonder if Betfair has exchange betting on the show position...

[richiebee]

Jimbo:

I\'ll be rooting for you at 55/1.

I want to watch the head on, but I think Stewart Elliot on West Coast Bernie
could have done more raceriding to take away IWR\'s path in the stretch. Of
course this was not an option if WCB was a tired animal at that point.

Looks like a great betting Derby.

[Halo Fire]

Jim,

I\'m excited for you. Win or lose, this next month will be big fun.

I have a knock on every single contender except one.....Friesan Fire. What am I missing?

[Silver Charm]

Seven Week Layoff with an Isolated Top on a Sloppy Track

Need More??

[Barry Irwin]

Hard man to impress.

[Halo Fire]

I think the 7 weeks is a positive. Can he be a wet track horse? Absolutely. However, did he not have nice development prior to that #? Is it possible the slop # was part of positive development?

[jimbo66]

JB,

You are beat on our bet.  I am not much of a drinker, I want the right to convert my drink into one of those Carolina Barbecue sandwiches.

Agreed that Quality Road is the stronger of the favorites.

I think the \"five that can win\" are Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk,Friesan Fire and Pioneer of the Nile.  Forget the rest.

We will see in your seminar what your short list is.  Guessing that Pioneer of the Nile is not on your list and Old Fashioned is still lingering on your list.  Old Fashioned seems to have the potential to be the \"High Limit\" for this year\'s seminar......

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure that GG gets off Pioneer of the Nile to
> ride Dunkirk.  My bet would be Baffert demnds the
> \"commitment\" now, and doesn\'t allow GG to hedge
> and wait to see if Dunkirk gets in.  In that
> scenario, GG would take the secure mount on a top
> 5 contender, rather than wait to see if Dunkirk
> gets in (just a guess)
>
> Jim


“I haven’t even given that any thought,” Baffert said when asked if he had Gomez for the Derby.

Ron Anderson dumped the SA Derby winner last year, and he looked stronger than Pioneer. Didn\'t cost Garrett much, as he picked the mount right back up for the Travers, then turned it down again for the BC. I\'ll be surprised if he\'s not on Dunk.

If things hold as they look now, I like QR with the high class cruising speed. Chocolate Candy is a use underneath with the dirt breeding, a possible key at 20-1 if the pace looks to be hot. I like Dunk to be 2nd, 3rd, or 4th best here, and I honestly don\'t know how well IWR is going to run. Friesan needs to be monitored closely.

[jimbo66]

Friesan,

I think he is a contender, but isn\'t he another \"one figure\" horse (similar to I Want Revenge).  I don\'t have a copy of FF\'s sheet, but I don\'t remember a developing line, I thought he had a string of six\'s last year, then a string of 3\'s this year, before the wet track jump up.  The secondary top of \"3\" doesn\'t finish in the top half of the field.  

I think the only horses that I am aware of that have two solid figures are Quality Road and Dunkirk.  

Old Fashioned had the two year old foundation and no development this year.  Not sure what figure he would have to run next Saturday for him to look good three weeks later?  

I understand why you like the 7 weeks and consider it a positive.  One thing worries me though.  if you look at this horse\'s dry track races this year, he was pulling early, on the bit, not relaxing.  I wouldn\'t call it rank, but let\'s say he was anxious.  Watch the replays and judge for yourself.  Off the 7 week layoff, that problem would seem to be more likely.

[Silver Charm]

FF has a few more ifs than say a QR. Because of the 7 weeks he will be played by \"Sheet Players\". (See Circular Quay)

The Big Neg # was still on an Off Track. The horses he beat have done little or nothing this spring.

A good spot for an improving horse to find himself.

[covelj70]

Firesan Fire ran a 1 in the La Derby.  That\'s his top.  No big negative numbers.  He\'s alot slower than alot of others in the field.  I don\'t expect him to jump up to a huge new top in a 20 horse field off off 7 weeks rest to win.  

He could run another 1 and be part of the super but I don\'t see him in the mix for the win.

The only horses who have run 0\'s or better so far who will be in the gate are:

Quality Road
I Want Revenge
Dunkirk (who is looking more likely to get in given the repeat winners and the defection of PM this weekend)
Win Willy

and then a few have run 1\'s including,  
Desert Party
Old Fashioned
Friesan Fire

I would expect a 0 or 1 negative from Old Fashioned would set him up perfectly into the Derby.  He\'s the forgotten horse this year.  He and Win Willy could both be interesting.

[Silver Charm]

Dunkirk WILL get in.

I had heard or thought I had heard the La Derby was a Neg #. I guess I heard wrong.

FF is more interesting with that line and the 7 weeks because the odds will be justifiable. 10-1, 12-1 or so vs 6-1 or 7-1 with if the Prep was fast and there was good rest.

OF must deal with QR and QR must deal with OF

This is good for Dunkirk......