Anybody wanna do some homework?

[Ian Meyers]

And yet...

Some trainer with a choice of the rail or 2 hole will select post 18 again \'so he can stay out of trouble\'.  Happens just about every year.

[beazley]

They haven\'t.  The leader is 23% ITM, the 2nd horse is 27% ITM.  Combined they are 25% ITM.

Someone said that EITHER the leader or the 2nd horse is 50% ITM.  They came to that number by adding the two together.

However, BOTH the leader and the 2nd horse have run ITM 3 times.  So EITHER/BOTH of the top 2 runners early have hit the board in 10 of 26 races.

[miff]

JB,

You may want to clarify, are you looking for:

1.The horse on the lead after they run the first 1/4 quarter of a mile or

2.The \"pace call\", which at the 1 and 1/4 mile distance, is after they run one mile.


I assume you are looking for the leader after 1/4 of a mile had been run, point 1.


Mike

[TGJB]

Mike-- certainly not the second one. I guess after the first quarter-- ideally it would be going into the turn (more than 1/4 here), but they don\'t measure that.

[jack72906]

We could get that far turn statistic (if that\'s the ideal stat) although it would take some time. Every Derby from at least the last 35+ years is on YouTube.

[MonmouthGuy]

Interesting.

So I understand correctly, if hypothetically, the race starts off to form, and Regal Ransom and Join in the Dance are 1-2 at first call---history will tell us that 1 of the 2 of them has a 50% of finishing in the money.

Taking the next logical step, since JITD has a 0% chance of finishing ITM, we should be very cautious in leaving Regal Ransom off our exotic tickets.

[miff]

JB,

Was just wondering if the guys that are playing with this were using the first quarter or the pace call @ 1 1/4 mile which is a mile out.

Some may not know that the pace call in a 6f race, for example, is after they run a half mile, not a quarter of a mile.

Mike

[TGJB]

Actually, rest of the field would be about half that, 12-15%. And the 50% figure is for ONE of the first TWO getting there. Basically, sounds like those running 1-2 early have been about twice as likely to hit the board as those not.

[TGJB]

First (clubhouse) turn.

[miff]

\"Actually, rest of the field would be about half that, 12-15%. And the 50% figure is for ONE of the first TWO getting there. Basically, sounds like those running 1-2 early have been about twice as likely to hit the board as those not\"


...wouldn\'t the early pace have something to do with how often the leaders(and who they were) survived to hit the board? Should this exercise be filtered for pace implications?

Mike

[jimbo66]

If you are going to \"filter for pace\", I want Classhandicapper/Fkach reinstated here.....

[miff]

Not a bad guy at all!

[TGJB]

Mike-- At least twice this century (!) there have been extreme \"H Pace\" scenarios, and pace guys could certainly have a field day with this. But I\'m trying to discuss this in more general, all-things-being-equal terms-- over 40 years all that should even out.

By the way, Spend a Buck\'s \"easy lead\" (pointed out over and over by the dearly departed CH, who never let a fact get into the way of a good theory), had him going 45 and change for the half.

[jack72906]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First (clubhouse) turn.


Hi Jerry,

After looking at all of the races back to 1969, the 1st or 2nd place horse going into the first turn finished in the money 19 times(.218).

The number of horses I used for the sample was 87 because in 1969, 1980, 1991, 1995, 2004, and 2007 there were multiple horse close for the 2nd spot going into the turn. In other words it wasn\'t obvious who was in second.

The money horses(could bring back a few memories) with their finishing place:

1969-Arts and Letters (2nd)
1972-Riva Ridge (1st)
1974-Hudson County (2nd)
1976-Bold Forbes (1st), Honest Pleasure (2nd)
1977-Seattle Slew (1st)
1979-General Assembly (2nd)
1983-Sunny\'s Halo (1st)
1988-Winning Colors (1st), Fortyniner (2nd)
1994-Go For Gin (1st)
1997-Free House (3rd)
1999-Cat Thief (3rd)
2002- War Emblem (1st) Prefect Drift (3rd)
2003-Peace Rules (3rd)
2004-Lion Heart (2nd) Smarty Jones (1st)
2007-Hard Spun (2nd)

[analizethis]

Of course 2007 was run on an off track.

In how many other years was the track condition other than fast and does that variable make a difference in the analysis?