Quality Road - doubtful

[jimbo66]

BTW,

If Jerkens decides to run Quality Road, just email me about your bet.  My emailaddress is not hidden.  I will take the bet.

[TreadHead]

Going to start a new branch to try and get away from the soap opera above, but my question is more about quantifying how much training QR actually missed due to either one of these cracks.  Obviously he has not missed any workouts, but I think we know for a fact he has missed entire days of jogs and gallops.  Can anyone comment on how much has actually been missed since the Florida Derby?  Are these daily jogs/gallops just as important as the workouts, or as long as he works out fine tomorrow and is able to gallop up to Derby day am I to understand people believe will he be fine and run his race?

My concern isn\'t so much that his ouchy feet will cause him to take a bad step or that a new crack might develop during the race, but more that he is going to be a short horse in the stretch no matter how good a job McKinlay does of patching up his feet.

[miff]

1. Who gives a damn about the animal rights activists? The owner and trainer should not run their horse who MAY just have a minor quarter crack, because of them? Sorry, but that is dumb. It really is.

Buck,

The connections of this horse would never race him if they thought there was a remote chance of him breaking down from racing with a quarter crack.BB had to have 1/4 of his hoof packed and rebuilt last year and won the derby/preakness.QR new crack is not anywhere near as severe as the BB situation.Tomorrow tells the story,if he works fine without complications,oozing/bleeding, he\'ll run barring anything else this week.I\'d be shocked if he runs poorly JUST because of the quarter crack. I\'m wondering how much fitness he lost from those days he did not gallop/jog.

As Sight pointed out, there are quite a few horses racing with quarter cracks and winning their fair share.As an aside,in NY we are trying to get NYRA to list/announce all horses racing with quarter crack patches, not just bar shoes/aluminum pads.


Mike

[toppled]

Not all the horses jog every day.  Look at the daily reports on the Derby horses & you\'ll see things like \"schooled in the paddock\"  \"walked around the shed row\" \"jogged for the first time since xxx\" etc.  I don\'t think it\'s a day of not jogging here or there that is the problem.  I\'m more concerned with the fact that he may run at less than 100% in a race you need to be 100% for.  Now add a wet track possibility to the mix & the Derby is becoming more chaotic by the hour.

[Silver Charm]

He will be the 7/2 ML fav


Both you guys go and get all you can

Also name me ONE Derby winner with a quarter crack

[bellsbendboy]

My initial post was not to quantify how bad the injury but identify the \"fine line\" Jerkens had to walk. I did poorly.

Assuming Quality Road works solid and Tuesday morning he is deemed \"shippable\" which was the original plan.  Now the compression of time kicks in.  Wednesday, JJ would probably jog him as you do not want to gallop over a track you have never set foot on.  Thursday and Friday gallops would then be OK.......... but that leaves little time for a paddock visit as the crowds grow.

Additionally, QR has had issues at the gate and that will also be a crowded area.  I cannot fathom JJ not going to both the paddock and the gate and that is asking a lot with limited time.

[BB]

Silver, there\'s a difference between saying that I\'m going to bet a vulnerable Derby favorite to win at 7/2 and pointing out the inanity of your arguments. One, I don\'t think I\'ve ever done. The other, these days it seems it\'s all I ever do.

[jimbo66]

Silver,

Quality Road seems unlikely to be 7-2.  The over/under is probably 5-1 on him with the news about the quarter crack.  Questioning his value at 5-1 is certainly a legitimate question.  I am not saying he is the \"value play\" in this Derby, just saying that a comparison to Unbridled Song and Empire Maker is a bit flawed.  Also a fair question as to who has won the derby with a quarter crack. How many horses before the \"informaton age\" had quarter cracks and the public didn\'t know it?  Hard to say.  

If I wasn\'t already invested in Quality Road at 14-1, I would be saying that he is a tough horse to bet ON at 5-1 because of potential conditioning issues around the quarter crack and the fact that he MAY have regressed a little bit in the Florida Derby, but that he is a tough harse to bet against with any confidence.  He is \"co-fastest\" and he and IWR are significantly faster than the rest of the field.  Additionally, he has a solid 2 year old figure and with the five weeks of rest he has a shot to run back to his top, which would make him a very likely winner.

[richiebee]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

 
> Also name me ONE Derby winner with a quarter crack


Arguably the most influential Derby winner in the last 50 years had quarter
crack problems during his Triple Crown campaign.

After his Derby win, he won the Preakness. This Eclipse Award winning 3YO
\"prepped\" for the Derby by winning the Flamingo,the Florida Derby and the Blue
Grass Stakes. Thats when a sport was a sport.

This colt went on to have a career as a stallion which will likely never be
equaled, even though he was only bred 40 - 50 times per year.

[number5858]

>
> ...He is \"co-fastest\" and he
> and IWR are significantly faster than the rest of
> the field.  Additionally, he has a solid 2 year
> old figure and with the five weeks of rest he has
> a shot to run back to his top, which would make
> him a very likely winner.

I don\'t see it that way. The track was speed favoring in the Florida Derby, which I believe aided QR\'s number. Similarly, the Gotham was speed favoring, which aided IWR\'s number. OTOH, Dunkirk ran nearly as fast and closed into the speed favoring track against the bias. No way am I betting QR on top with the quarter cracks, but I may have to use him underneath. Like you, I also have QR covered in pool #2, so I will just have to let him beat me. I am looking forward to hearing from JB on Wednesday in the seminar. I can\'t see QR getting lower than 6:1 with the quarter cracks.

[ajkreider]

Of the two, QR seemed much more comfortable than Dunkirk (to my eyes, anyway) in the paddock and at the gate of the FD.  QR really looked all business, while Dunkirk looked a tad hot in the paddock, and I think had to be put in the gate twice.  (but my memory might be off on that).

[jimbo66]

Number858

Quality Road\'s top was not earned in the Florida Derby.  It was in the previous race.  Do you want to taint that number with the same \"speed favoring\" sticker?  

As for IWR.  Did you happen to catch the Withers yesterday?  Mr. Fantasy dusted a small but talented group rather easily.  This would be the same Mr. Fantasy that was on the lead setting the fractions on the \"speed favoring\" Gotham, but was absolutely crushed by I Want Revenge.  

If you want to say that neither Quality Road or I Want Revenge will run their \"top\" in the Derby, i can\'t argue too much with that (although I would disagree).  But to say that they are not the two fastest horses in the race is just saying something that defies any logic.  All the figuremakers are in agreement that these two are the fastest and it isn\'t that close.  They have run negative 3.5 on TG.  The next fastest is a 0.

[jimbo66]

Richie,

Don\'t be a tease!  Please tell us!!

[rosewood]

His groom also became quite famous

[number5858]

I am not saying IWR and QR are not the fastest. They clearly are. I am really saying that maybe they won\'t run their top in the Derby due to various circumstances like post position, trips, slop, etc. I think that Dunkirk is capable of winning because he ran nearly as fast, but on a track that didn\'t favor his running style. A $3.7 million colt that has run fast over dirt is obviously talented and can win under the right circumstances.