Sorry MTB fans, his win was bad for racing

[miff]

\"Totally random is better than totally fixed which is the usual charge. Besides, the totally \"random\" gaming industry is eating our lunch. Maybe that\'s the way we should promote the sport\"

JR,

I think that consistently \"totally random\" results would spell the end of the betting side of the game as we know it. Most large players cover the \"random\" factor with rebates, sound data,sharp overall handicapping accumen and good money management.If totally random ruled, they would be gone.I could not gamble a totally random racing game.

It may surprise some to learn that the drug/move up thing is something some large players feel that have a decent handle on and factor it in accordingly. Some prefer the game the way it is, while others would prefer the total elimination of the move up guys.


Mike

[miff]

Wow,can\'t believe the thread going on here. The winner was near impossible going in by any data, worse on Beyer and Rags than TG. Thats not to say someone could find a reason to take a small flier on a bomb in the lower underneath slots.MTB then proceded to run one of the fastest last quarters in derby history after making a sustained run to get close.Great ride by Borel and a nice win for the trainer who did not think the horse had a shot before the race.

I\'ts Tuesday and MTB\'s still doesn\'t reconcile unless he\'s a wet track freak that rode a biased rail to victory.Forward pattern, TGI, Canadian Champion, changed running style, gimme a break.You can take every horse in the Derby and manufacture reasons why he may have won.It\'s called resulting.

MTB goes to the top of the list as far the biggest upset(not necessarily by odds) in Derby history. The slow rat Giacomo is replaced and it remains to be seen if MTB is really a slow rat is sheeps clothing.


Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- actually, I think Giacomo was a bigger upset, given how much slower than the fastest horses he was. But I agree, I don\'t get why everyone is beating this to death. A 3yo made a 4-6 point jump, like many do in the spring, got a rail trip, and many did not fire, over a muddy track. It happens. Turn the page.

And PDub, enough with the personal slams. I\'m not kidding.

[APny]

Wow Miff...Finally someone willing to give it the way it is..We\'re on here because we use sheets right?  I mean to talk about how you could have bet MTB is the epitome of redboarding....He was indeed the 18th slowest horse in the race on both sets of sheets.  I still don\'t understand the result.  Everyone is talking about the ride Borel gave..which indeed is worth commending..but did everyone watch the blimp view.  That horse accelerated quicker than any horse I\'ve seen in recent memory...and sustained the run for almost a half mile.  NOTHING...I mean NOTHING...could have forecasted that effort.  I think he wins for fun even if he wasn\'t on the rail the whole time.  If you can say that MTB was a possibility to bet on Saturday...then you for sure can find reasons to bet any horse in any race on any day.

[miff]

JB,

Yeah could see that.Think Giacomo\'s win was explained mostly by the implosion up front, MTB made a serious legit long sustained late run,tough to explain, except for the wet surface and the iron rail.


Mike

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

In the end, yes it is just a 4-6 point jump for a 3 year old.  But there are some other aspects of the performance that were more outstanding than just his final Tgraph number.  I know you don\'t like to dissect the race into pieces and analyze pace (and most of the time I don\'t either), but coming home the last quarter in 23 and change for a 3 year old, on dirt, in May of his campaign is something that very few horses do, let alone New Mexico shippers with TG tops of \"5\".  He showed both acceleration and athleticism in that rail skimming ride, particularly that burst of acceleration being at the end of a distance race.  To me, that makes it more incredulous, than just the 4-6 point TG move.

Also, as I believe you have talked about in the past, very few horses make significant moves up in the Derby.  Generally, you have to be fast enough coming in.  How many horses have made 6 point forward moves going 1 1/4 in the Derby?  None?  

THis performance was more than a \"ho-hum\" developing 3 year old.  We have seen 3 year olds jump in prep races at shorter distances, but I really can\'t remember a 6 point derby jump up.  Anybody?

[magicnight]

Hey, I turned the page after my 5th tequila Saturday night, but why is it so strange that he ran a fast half to finish the race when he spent the first 6F in a relaxed gallop all by his lonesome on the best part of the track?

[jimbo66]

Assuming you have sobered up by now, find somebody else who has done it in the DErby?  There are laggards in every run of the Derby.  Find one that accelerated like that and came home in 23 and a piece.

[TGJB]

Barbaro and Giacomo both jumped 4 points. Worth noting that he came into this with only 2 starts this year, which makes a jump more likely than for all those derby starters that have made 3 or more.

[MonmouthGuy]

Whirlaway ran final quarter in 23 3/5 seconds to win by eight in 1941. Trip sounds similar.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2005/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1941.html

WHIRLAWAY, eased back when blocked in the first eighth and taken to the inside approaching the first turn, started up after reaching the final half-mile, was taken between horses on the final turn, responded with much energy to take command with a rush and, continuing with much power, drew out fast in the final eighth.

[NoCarolinaTony]

APny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If  you can say that MTB was a possibility to bet on
> Saturday...then you for sure can find reasons to
> bet any horse in any race on any day.

Thats why they call it horse racing!!! In reality the horse had a 1 in 19 shot to win once he got loaded into the gate with the other 18 runners

[P-Dub]

miff Wrote:
------------------------------------------------------

> I\'ts Tuesday and MTB\'s still doesn\'t reconcile
> unless he\'s a wet track freak that rode a biased
> rail to victory.Forward pattern, TGI, Canadian
> Champion, changed running style, gimme a break.You
> can take every horse in the Derby and manufacture
> reasons why he may have won.It\'s called
> resulting.
>
> MTB goes to the top of the list as far the biggest
> upset(not necessarily by odds) in Derby history.
> The slow rat Giacomo is replaced and it remains to
> be seen if MTB is really a slow rat is sheeps
> clothing.
>
>
> Mike


Mike,

Its called resulting. Ok.  Kinda like when people around here look at a winner they didn\'t have,  go back over the sheet, and find a reason he won?  Horses win all of the time that have \"inferior numbers\". If that wasn\'t the case, every horse would pay around 6 bucks.  Because the numbers would dictate it.

You sound like Silver Charm. Because your data and ideas didn\'t work, must mean that any other line of reasoning is fradulent? I never knew there was only 1 way to handicap. Maybe you and Silver can give your own seminar, letting us all know what the ONLY way to handicap a race is.  

When sheet players find a nice priced winner, its because they found a reason to bet a horse that others didn\'t.  Good for them, thats the idea.

I gave several legitimate reasons why someone COULD have had this horse. Again, I have a friend that uses a program that had MTB listed with the best late fraction in the race.  It also had the race listed as pressured.  Its 1 reason he used the horse. He also liked the other factors I mentioned,  such as a change in running style.  Now, you may think thats BS.  And you are certainly entitled to that opinion.  But again,  its a little smug and arrogant to proclaim that its hogwash. Other handicappers use positive form factors when analyzing a race.

I love Thorograph. Its pointed me to some of my biggest scores. When my non-TG playing friends have a winner that couldn\'t be found on TG,  do you think they care?? Think that they feel they found a winner because of a fluke?? They don\'t. They just use different methods that work for them.

I don\'t necessarily handicap that way,  nor did I sniff the winner. But again, because someone had the winner and you didn\'t doesn\'t mean their methods are worthless.

[jimbo66]

P-Dub,

Would love to see the program that had MTB with the fastest closing fraction.  I had both early pace figures and late pace figures from multiple qualified sources and none of them had MTB in the top 5 in late pace figures.

YOu are making this sound like a Thorograph \"fluke\".  This is not a \"thorograph fluke\".  This was a fluke, period.  MTB was one of the two slowest horses on TG, RAgs, Beyers, and had lousy pace figures.  There are methods like \"pick your favorite color\" and \"pick your favorite\" number, and they work sometimes too.  That doesn\'t mean they are good methods.

He changed his running style, signaling he had an imminent 6 point TG jump up, 24 point beyer jump up, etc?

Gimme a break.  You have been posting way too often here, and made way too many good points, to actually believe that this is a good point.

BTW, not to be a wiseass, but wouldn\'t you know that I finally got a 1w/1w tri from your boy Mike Smith aboard Lemon Chiffon on Derby day, in what I personally thought was the best bet of the day, and he did it on what may have been a dead rail on the turf course...  There is some sick irony in that one.....

[jimbo66]

Jerry,

They made 4 point moves.  Have you given MTB a 4 or 6 point move?  It makes a difference.  And you have been making figures for how many years, 25?  Maybe two horses in 25 years of Derbies, figuring at least 15 horses per year average in the derby, make that a probability of 2 in 375?  ABout 1/2 of 1 percent?  And that is if you only give him a 4 point top.  I am guessing higher than that when you finalize the figures (assuming you haven\'t done so yet).

[miff]

Paul,

Back to basics, he was a slow rat GOING IN with absolutely no license to win off, period. You can put any slant you want on it and to those who figured him pre race, they need to go to a seminar.


Mike