Preakness Odds

[miff]

\"I would be surprised if Beyer was using the same length/point relationship at all distances (to say the least). The question is whether he is using the right one for 1 1/8\"


JB,

Maybe I did not explain the Beyer thing. The number of beyer points, re beaten lenghts, is not the same from sprint to routes. From memory, it\'s like 2 1/2 points in sprints and less app 1 3/4 in routes.

Mike

[Leamas57]

Yes,thanks.

Perhaps I might have worded it more cogently: there\'s no relative change between oaks/derby runners. I knew the new entrants would add, but my point is simply that for Rachel and the Derby runners, weight doesn\'t come into play as a new variable.

[TGJB]

Yes, it does. She gets weight worth one TG point.

[miff]

Mike,

I know the filly gets 5 pounds, but in comparing figs, I believe it is irrelevant that Big Drama and Hull pick up weight, as the figures are already \"normalized\" for weight carried, as part of the compilation. (unless I am wrong)


Jim,

Not sure I understand \"normalized\"

Now sure how 5 lbs affects animals that weigh 1,000+ pounds but do know that they have different weight carrying capabilities. Impossible that they are all of equal strength and affected exactly the same way by weight shifts, speaking performance wise.I\'m sure a horse can pick up a certain amount of additional weight and stop the clock just as fast as he did with less weight under the same conditions. At some unknown point of weight increase, a horse is sure to not run as fast.

I thought that if a horse ran a TG 2 carrying 117 lbs and was picking up 9 pounds, you would have to rate him slower even before considering the spot he is going to give or receive. Just my take,hate picking up weight.


Mike

[jimbo66]

Miff,

I guess my point here needs to be confirmed by TGJB.

My point was that if Horse A ran a negative 2, carrying 121 pounds and Horse B ran a negative 2 carrying 110 pounds, the figure is adjusted already such that if they are carrying the same weight in their next race (say 121 pounds), they are exactly as fast as each other, it is NOT that the horse that ran the negative 2 carying 121 pounds is faster, because the negative already considered that he was carrying the 121 pounds.  (as did the negative 2 for horse carrying 110 pounds)

Jerry?

[TGJB]

Correct. Only thing you have to worry about is the weights today of the two horses relative to each other.

Don\'t know if you looked at the TG UK, but we have a column where the figs are adjusted for today\'s weight-- otherwise those 24 horse handicaps are some pain in the butt. We may do it here as well.

[miff]

Jim,

I\'m missing it, cause that means if they ran the neg 2 in the same race same day, different weights, the one picking up 11 pounds in the next race is just as fast? Can\'t be, no?

Mike

[mjellish]

She closed her last furlong in a shade over 12 seconds.  You think she could have run faster if she had been asked?

I think it is ludicrous to think she could have run any harder.

[mjellish]

You are assuming the horse that wins gets the highest figure.  That is incorrect.

The two horses in your example, both run -2.  But if in the next race they face each other and one is getting weight from the other, and all other things are equal, and they both pair that -2, the one getting the weight will win by a length or so depending upon distance run, etc.

Same thing if one goes wide and one doesn\'t.  They both may get a -2, but the one that loses ground loses the race.

Happens all the time.

[BB]

Concur. Just because an athlete can make something look easy, that doesn\'t make it easy.

[jimbo66]

Miff,

They ran in the same race, same day, one carried 110 pounds and one carried 121 pounds, and they both get negative 2\'s.  

A month later, they run against each other and they both carry 121 pounds, they are just as fast.  

The 11 pound weight difference was factored into the negative 2\'s in the first race they ran.  (meaning the horse carrying 110 pounds really ran faster, assuming equal beaten lengths.  JB factored the weight into the negative 2\'s).

[miff]

You are assuming the horse that wins gets the highest figure. That is incorrect.

The two horses in your example, both run -2. But if in the next race they face each other and one is getting weight from the other, and all other things are equal, and they both pair that -2, the one getting the weight will win by a length or so depending upon distance run, etc.

Same thing if one goes wide and one doesn\'t. They both may get a -2, but the one that loses ground loses the race.

Happens all the time.


Mjellish,

Not at all if you referring to my post. It is unlikely that a horse can run as fast AGAINST THE CLOCK picking up 11 pounds, all things equal. If all things are equal, with 11 more pounds, and he gets neg -2 again, that means he ran 2/5\'s slower against the clock.


Mike

[covelj70]

said another way, Rachael\'s \"adjusted top\" coming into this race is actually 5 negative.  A scary proposition against a bunch of horses who are likely to run a 0 at best.  She could move backwards by 5 points and still win unless someone jumps up (again) on short rest.  

I will not be making any big win bets on this as the risk/reward isn\'t there but purely on the numbers, she seems very very likely to me to bounce hard and still win.

I think she will bounce hard because there\'s no question that a horse will react to that kind of effort on short rest (as MJ said, you don\'t run a nearly 12 second final 8th in a mile and an eigth race without exerting alot of effort) but she can bounce very hard and still win this.

Maybe as someone else suggested singling her in the pk 4 which was very juicy last year even with BB thanks to David Donk on the turf but we will need to get there live to her to have it mean anything.

[miff]

Jim,

The light finally went on now as you are strictly speaking in terms of how TG methodology handles weight adjustments.

I was more referring to the fact that I do not think that a horse picking up 11 pounds can run as fast, against the clock, all things otherwise exact.That would mean that 11 additional pounds does not slow a horse against the clock.Fact is, he would slow down, say 2/5ths of a second, but get the same TG fig because of the added 11 pounds.Incidentally, thats pretty mechanical in a game with so many moving parts.

Mike

[mjellish]

Do you care if the horse runs as fast or if it wins?

Horses don\'t race against the clock.  They race against each other.