My Preakness Analysis

[Dana666]

1-Big Drama: Not my kind of horse; too many questions for me regarding the distance and layoff. He is the speed and gets the rail, but I\'m not biting.

2-Mine That Bird: Thought his derby was fake as a 3 dollar bill - good luck now, I hope his legs don\'t fall off --Smith will pull him up if he feels anything strange.

3-Musket Man: Think he\'s going the wrong way now, but that\'s just a hunch. I didn\'t see his monmouth work, but a work that fast after the derby is a bad sign in my book; I\'ll pass here.

4-Luv Gov: Spitzer\'s namesake seems up against it.

5-Freisan Fire: Tricky read for me, I can\'t blame you if you like himm, but he\'s only run 1 number that is truly competitive here, and that was in the slop at Fairgrounds when no one else ran - I\'ll pass and hope he doesn\'t beat me.

6-Terrain: Seems too slow.

7-Papa Clem: Another I see as going south, but that\'s more a guess than based on any hard data. He wouldn\'t be a huge surprise but I\'ll pass.

8-Gen Quarters: He has surprised me in the past, but his best will make him a boarderline contender. i\'ll let him beat me.

9-Pioneer: My derby choice ran gallantly in defeat. I have to to say I disagree with Jerry\'s analysis here big time - what derby was he looking at? He was wide all the way on an extremely tiring (and inside biased) track and he was right up there early and still had the courage to hold off perfect tripper Musket man for second - which one of the other speed\'s hung around late in the derby??? He bore out b/c he was freaking tired. I have no reason to think he won\'t at least pair up and that probably wins this if RA doesn\'t fire. Bob Baffert knows how to win this race. I believe he will make ammends. Seems like a no-brainer to me folks!

10-Flying private: seems too slow.

11-Take the Points: A little sneaky here and may jump up, but Pioneer handled him easily when then met in Cali.

12-Tone it Down: Seems to slow.

13-Rachel A: Of course, just on sheets she looks formidable, but I\'ll say she never beat anything serious, and I hate the fact that they\'re running her right back (I agree w/Jerry here 100%). I hope she doesn\'t get hurt or anything. I will try to beat her.

[covelj70]

Dana,

great analysis but one thing, Papa Clem was right up on the pace the whole race and obviously hung around so not all the speed faded.

[Dana666]

I just looked again and you\'re quite right. In fact, the jock restrained him all the way (you see the first turn?!), I wonder if he would have let him run what would have happened? He ran a solid race and Musket Man also finished well; I should hesitate to say perfect trip with him, but he was on the inside most of the way until the stretch and couldn\'t go by Pioneer.I still think Pioneer was the best but those 3 all ran pretty well considering. I just watched the Oaks again, too. Am I crazy for betting against her??? We\'ll see, I guess. It looked like she was jogging but seriously how much faster could she run? Was it an optical illusion? The others were stopping??? I just hope it\'s dry Sat and there are no excuses for anyone.

[covelj70]

good stuff.

I think the filly is untouchable here.  I think she will bounce and win, just like BB last year.  This will be one of her last races I am afraid but with all of the huge efforts we have seen in the last few years, they always seem to put up another monster number on the way to the big bounce.  It\'s 0-2-x just with a much lower starting points.  So, starting with the 4 negaitve weight adjusted, she can bounce 3 points and still have a faster number than anyone except Big Drama who might have a hard time with the 1 3/16 given that he was all over the track going 7f last time down the stretch.

I can\'t wait to see her run.

[MicD]

covelj70

While many were moving toward Fresian Fire as the Derby got closer, you were one who based on his appearance days before the race cautioned everyone to look elsewhere.  Do you have the same feelings for the Preakness?

[covelj70]

thanks,

I do have the same feelings, I think once a horse goes bad, they need a little more time to get right again.  I think the horse had clearly gone bad before the Derby based on his coat, his weight, his choppy strides in his morning gallops, etc and I don\'t think 2 weeks is enough time for him to get back into form.

Full disclosure, I haven\'t seen him live since the derby but just based on experience, they don\'t usually pull it back together that quickly.

also, while I very much appreciate your thoughts, I also need to point out that I said the same thing about Musket Man who I also thought looked terrible leading up to the derby and even though he bounced a little bit in the Derby, he still ran alot better than I thought he would.  He seems like an 0-2-x here to me in the Preakness but fair is fair and I thought MM would do more than bounce a little bit in the Derby based on what I saw of him at Churchill.

Thanks again and good luck.

[alm]

The filly may lay over this field in terms of her overall ability, but a quick look at the pp\'s suggests that she will have to do something she has never done before in a 2-turn race...she will have to run faster than 47 seconds to the half mile.

Inside of her are 2 or 3 horses which can all run faster early fractions than she has had to run in ANY of her longer races.  If Borel tries to clear them, RA will have to run much quicker than she ever has done.  If he takes back, she may spend the entire race in an outside path.

That\'s not to say she can\'t do it, but the real question is: is she worth the bet that she can do it?

[covelj70]

good points but I think Borel will tuck her down and try to bring her from just off the pace.  She rated last time so we can\'t say she\'s a need the lead type.  He can tuck her down on the rail for the first turn and then have her made her move as they go up the backside.  Lots of things can go wrong once she gets down there (i.e. getting bumped around, race riding, etc) but one thing I don\'t worry about is Calvin getting her parked wide on the turn.  Tough to play her at the odds she will be but playing anyone else in hopes that something goes wrong with her seems more like playing the lottery than anything analytical.

good luck