PREAKNESS MAKES MOCKERY OF SHEET GURU'S

[high roller]

arguably the biggest bounce candidates in recent racing history run 1-2! making a mockery of the sheet guru\'s bounce theory!

when will you kool-aid drinkers realize that you have no knowledge of how an individual horse is doing after an effort?

or was it the white Mercedes in the parking lot???

[Frank]

That\'s it, a mockery. It\'s all about percentages, they don\'t all bounce and not all of them don\'t bounce. When they don\'t, enjoy the 8/5 but when they do the \"sheet gurus\" often cut up the big cabbage. In this case it\'s possible she backed up and won anyway. I think it\'s likely that we\'re looking at 0-2... for the filly.
I\'m looking forward to watching RA run in the Belmont.

[Silver Charm]

Frank how did the 0-2....read work with Musket Man

[Frank]

Percentages. Tough to understand those big words this early in the morning? Shades of gray, not black and white. Easier to understand?

[Silver Charm]

Okay Poco Harem. Whatever you say. The Percentages missed a nice Triple.

How did that Ragozin Bounce Study work out? Which had about as much disclosure to it as the Weapons of Mass Destruction Report. Another just believe us report from the Red-Square Alliance,,,,,

[Frank]

Good line, but I think it was Procol Harum. I\'d love to keep sparring but coffee\'s done and I\'m heading over to Woodbine to watch workouts. You never know when you might spot next year\'s Derby winner preparing for a maiden claimer here at the oval.

[basket777]

I took a stand against RA  However MTB?  how could you not like him.  lighlty raced this year moing forward.  if that was his pre derby sheet it would have been all in.

nice part about betting  you form your own opinion then bet your own money.

los this time   wow was old hiltop chalkie

[mdspwt1]

Mr. High Roller,
The devil is in the details. First off it wont surprise me one bit that there was a pretty significant regression in the race. Something just didn\'t seem right with that race at the end. I hope RA isn\'t hurt but there is little doubt in my mind that she backed up considerably and that MTB paired or backed up a bit...MTB will get a better figure given trip and weight..Anyway as i wrote on my blog (and i use Thorograph almost exclusively in my analysis) i thought the greater bounce candidates were the pace attenders in the derby like Pioneer and Papa as that was one tiring track on the front end Derby day and there was little doubt that they had layed their bodies on the line that day...they all \"bounced\" per se.

In my view dirt front runners are more susceptible to the bounce theory as opposed to closers. That is what has made RA so special in my view. She has been able to string together massive efforts on the front end, albeit with less pressure than she saw yesterday. She bounced big yesterday no doubt but is (was) so much the best horse in the country that she could afford to back up 5 lengths and win. Jerry may prove me completely wrong but i think she is 4-5 points off her top. That is surely a bounce. What is very scary for me is that many of the triple crown candidates of recent, RQ, SJ, WE, FC all ran improving races in their Baltimore outings. RA will now likely have a pattern very similar to BB last year (i could be wrong again on her PRK figure) and as i wrote last year, he likely wont hit the board. She needs to be wrapped up now. Assumusen likely knows this as well. If the figure comes out a 1 or so....everyone on this board will be praying they dont run her in 3 weeks. 5 massive 3yo efforts...its time to eat some grass in upstate New York.   -keith-

[TGJB]

Roller-- don\'t know what Friedman said, but go read my comments on the race-- in the RBR now-- before you go running your mouth. Rachel did exactly what I said was most likely, both there and on Dave Johnson\'s radio show-- back up about 4 points, and win if she got a decent trip in terms of ground loss. I made similar comments in maybe 20 posts here last week. And in the analysis I gave out a 4 horse box (which did not hit), and said to double up with Rachel on top.

I made points in my rundown both as to why MTB might bounce and why he might not. I said that because he might have liked the off track, figured to get a wider trip this time, and would be relatively short,he was tough to use. I also made the point RIGHT AFTER THE DERBY that he didn\'t have to bounce.

Other than that you are right on target, as usual.

For me personally, MTB not bouncing cost me having multiple tri and 3 super tickets-- I played mostly with Rachel or Big Drama having to win the race, throwing out POTN and MTB. And we\'ll never know what would have happened if Big Drama didn\'t a) get cast in his stall, b) act up in the gate, and c) stumble at the start.

[girly]

Even 1 bomb of the day is excellent analysis, and I for one am glad that you put your thoughts out there, so thank you!

[Beginner]

Sorry for the ignorance, but what does \"cast in his stall\" mean?

[MonmouthGuy]

It means he got stuck and couldn\'t get up on his own probably because he laid down too close to the stall wall.

[alm]

And even if he didn\'t hurt himself doing this, the anxiety it caused him should have been enough for his connections to scratch the horse.  Horses generally panic when this happens to them, which is how some of them get really hurt being pinned against a wall.

I threw the horse out of my bets when I heard this happened and felt really good about having done so when he balked in the starting gate, which suggested he was in fact mentally unprepared.

Human egomania being what it is, there\'s no way the owner and trainer were going to do the right thing by scratching the horse.  And where the filly is concerned, I won\'t be surprised if the connections\' egomania overrides their better judgment to give her a short break and skip the Belmont.

[Beginner]

Thanks Monmouth and Alm - all good information to file away.  Appreciate it.

[Leamas57]

I threw PON out of the tri based on your remarks, Jerry--thanks because I hit the tri a few times and the smallest P-4 I can remember in a while for triple crown (super if MTB gets third or fourth).

I keyed MTB with Rachel, though, as I didn\'t buy the magic rail idea and liked what his trainer said (despite your admonishments about trainer talk) how that horse moves. He\'s a pretty plain guy and while there may be others like him, he was genuinely impressed and that cinched it for me that the horse could really run.