Belmont Recap

[Michael D.]

SB - powerful stamina genes tracing back to The Axe, Nijinsky, Alysheba, and, most importantly, Weekend Surprise (through Summer Squall). After the explosion through the stretch in the quickly run Ark Derby (TG 1), there was little doubt we were looking at a colt with fine heart and lung capacity. The most likely horse to get the distance, and the most likely winner going in. Might have won by 5 to 10 if the race were run over the Big Sandy

Dunk - decent cruising speed. Negative figures going 9f in 2nd and 3rd career starts. With AP Indy on bottom there was a decent chance he would get the distance. Wound up not handling the distance all that well after the perfect trip, but he did fight back, and the perfect post and strong jock were enough for the place.

MTB - one burst type running for the 3rd time in 5 weeks. The risk was that he would flatten out in the stretch. A fair amount of tourist money in the win pool. SB was 8-1 in the double pool, and paid $25.80.

CM - not a strong Blue Grass, where, in MPH, he ran right with all of them for much of the race, then struggled in the final 1/4, especially the final 1/8. The fast paced and slow finish run in the Peter Pan didn\'t give me a lot of confidence that he would rate and finish strong in a 12f race. Bottom of the pedigree suggested distance would be an issue. At 9-2 though over the extremely quick surface, I can\'t blame those who had a positive view.

CC - I used CC in the 2nd slot off the powerful distance genes on bottom and first run on dry dirt. Looks like he didn\'t inherit the large heart, not all of them do.

[alm]

I appreciate your grasp of the bloodlines here, but those are only a factor, right?  Never as definitive as we would like them to be, given the relatively small size of the gene pool for thoroughbreds.

EG: I bred lots of full siblings, no two of which ever had the same qualities as to distance capabilities.  Most recently, a full sister who couldn\'t win over 6 furlongs and her full sister who didn\'t get warmed up until she ran 7 panels.

Regardless, hats off to Jerry Brown, the real Big Brown, for isolating the facts about the Belmont.  He nailed it with a very professional \'read.\'

[Michael D.]

alm Wrote:
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> I appreciate your grasp of the bloodlines here,
> but those are only a factor, right?  Never as
> definitive as we would like them to be, given the
> relatively small size of the gene pool for
> thoroughbreds.

Of course Alm, that\'s why I listed the other factors. It\'s simply a matter of judging the various angles vs the board. There was plenty of talk about Lemon Drop Kid and Birdstone, but virtually none in regards to the bottom of the pedigrees. I thought that was a relevant angle in this case. But yes, it\'s just a factor - one of many (and, as you say, one that doesn\'t always work out).

> EG: I bred lots of full siblings, no two of which
> ever had the same qualities as to distance
> capabilities.  Most recently, a full sister who
> couldn\'t win over 6 furlongs and her full sister
> who didn\'t get warmed up until she ran 7 panels.

[Silver Charm]

Michael would have won what by 5-10 if run over the Big Sandy??

The winner let others do his dirty work. The Track Speed forced some peoples hands. Or at least so they thought

[Michael D.]

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Michael would have won what by 5-10 if run over
> the Big Sandy??
>
> The winner let others do his dirty work. The Track
> Speed forced some peoples hands. Or at least so
> they thought


I didn\'t see a lot of dirty work Silver. 1:12.43 wasn\'t that fast over the surface. MTB had more of excuse with the wide trip, though I don\'t think that cost him vs the winner, as Kent D found a bit of traffic throughout the race.

[TGJB]

Michael-- there was some talk about SB\'s siblings in my comments and ROTW.

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
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> Michael-- there was some talk about SB\'s siblings
> in my comments and ROTW.


I know Jerry, that\'s why I said \"virtually\". I have not seen any other blurbs about the bottom of that pedigree, and I have been following the colt since his 2nd race. Your read on the colt was spot-on.

[Silver Charm]

Guys Congrats, things were spot on and it all worked.

But some of the same people here have been following Chocolate Candy for a while and how has that been working out.

Back in April there was at least one consensus that this was a \"Good Group of Three YO\".

Well we lost one to an injury IWR but added at least two more MTB and SB.

Dunkirk put in a race yesterday not all to different from Silver Charm in the SA Derby when Free House rolled by him in the last 8th. I see Alydar and Seattle Slew on his bottom side and a horse who twice now has kept on fighting even when beaten (Fla Derby and Belmont).

This a long year. DaTara never won again, Empire Maker, Rags to Riches and Birdstone only once more. Yesterday proves your analysis was correct and you made the right bet.

Whether you have the best horse only time will tell. .

[Michael D.]

Silver,

You can\'t do this without losing.

The purpose of these exercises is to improve, to become better handicappers.  Those who are able to accept their losses and learn are the ones most likely to enjoy a lifetime of betting horses successfully.

[Silver Charm]

Michael I had a pretty good day yesterday.

I think the Race Shape in the Belmont took on a life of its own because of the speed favoring condition of the track. Ask Gary Stevens and Point Given about Derby Day and how that sometimes can work.

Winning the Belmont has not exactly proven to be a long term formula for success but SB did look good doing it.

I wonder if he had sat where Dunkirk sat and Dunkirk sat where SB sat how the race would have worked out.

I guess we will never know.

[P-Dub]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Guys Congrats, things were spot on and it all
> worked.
>
> But some of the same people here have been
> following Chocolate Candy for a while and how has
> that been working out.
>
> Back in April there was at least one consensus
> that this was a \"Good Group of Three YO\".
>
> Well we lost one to an injury IWR but added at
> least two more MTB and SB.
>
> Dunkirk put in a race yesterday not all to
> different from Silver Charm in the SA Derby when
> Free House rolled by him in the last 8th. I see
> Alydar and Seattle Slew on his bottom side and a
> horse who twice now has kept on fighting even when
> beaten (Fla Derby and Belmont).
>
> This a long year. DaTara never won again, Empire
> Maker, Rags to Riches and Birdstone only once
> more. Yesterday proves your analysis was correct
> and you made the right bet.
>
> Whether you have the best horse only time will
> tell. .


Who cares as long as you had the right horse yesterday??

[Silver Charm]

Lotsa Charitable Mans the last week or so on this Board P-Dub.

Keep rubbing it in.......

[smalltimer]

Silver,
I personally didn\'t like Charitable Man, but I included him in the 3-4 hole in my superfecta.  Frankly, had not so many guys on this board LIKED Charitable Man, I would have tossed him.  Would have been my mistake.
The problem I see sometimes on this board is a handful of guys try to impose their selections/rationale/reasoning on everyone else, so they tend to stifle discussion. Or they get caught up in \"telling me what I\'m supposed to think about a race.\"  I read a lot of posts, and many of them are very well thoughtout, some come to fruition and others don\'t.  It\'s the game.    
I\'m not fond of jimbo jumping on my case almost everytime I post.  Its unfortunate that he\'s had a couple off weeks, it happens to everyone.  But, dominating the board and then missing for 2 straight weeks as if he is the \"guy\" doesn\'t do much for me.  Had jimbo had a big day, he\'d have been in here crowing.  I don\'t care to slam him, but, he\'s gonna slam me, so it\'s all good.
Show me the results, then talk the talk.  I got my winning tickets from the last 2 weeks on the same races jimbo missed on.  Does that make me a better player than him?  No, just a different type player.  I think jimbo brings lots of good points to the board, but after having said that, as soon as he resurfaces again, he\'ll be in here blasting me about Zenyatta, or Mike Smith being wide, or drilling me to decide if I\'m a fan or a gambler.  I\'m both, I\'m a fan and I\'m a GOOD GAMBLER.  Just as lots of guys on here are good fans and good gamblers.
No offense.
Have a great one.

[dehere]

Someone may have mentioned this already but the niftiest \"Belmont Recap\" is that TGAB got past the qualifying round of NHCQualify and is in the finals on the 27th!  A very nice 8th place finish Alan - way to go!

[Silver Charm]

The Humblest of WINNERS.

CONGRATS!!!