TGJB - Letters to the Editor

[miff]

\"I\'ll look at figures only for this\"

Thanks, I think if you looked at all the data that I did,you might be more impressed. She got 9 lbs so her \"top\" fig may suffer.This may be more racing stuff than fig stuff which can sometimes be different.

This horse was one paced, without an ounce of run 8 days prior to the claim.This day, she attacked early on a fastish pace of 1.10 and change and got home the last quarter in 23.4, raw splits that he has never been near before. She was bet off the board at 6.80 to 1.

Mike

[TGJB]

Can\'t go along with you on this one. She ran back to a figure she ran twice earlier in the year, and the trainer switch is positive regardless of anything else. The weight helped.

[miff]

according to your data, from memory, not on grass.

[imallin]

RP was chasing graded stakes fillies earlier this year, she was battling head and head with Tuscan Evening in May and before that she lost to Annaba\'s Creation, that\'s the horse who almost did Z.

The thing i noticed about RP in the race she dueled with Tuscan Evening is that she stopped so suddenly. To me, that signifies that maybe she chokes off her air or has some kind of breathing problem. ALso, she\'s a filly, and can be temperamental. When a horse has breathing problems or flips her palate, the jocks like to \'send\' a horse like that and not \'grab\' her. So, her erratic performances may not be \'drug\'s on\'  related, but rather a different riding strategy.

It also helped that this field was not really all that great.

In defense of the OP, it does seem that whenever there is a horse who runs great first off the claim, its usually a trainer known for doing this. You seldom see a horse who is claimed off one of the \'usual suspects\' by a no name guy and this improvement occurs.

IF this particular example was just a horse feeling good one day with the new barn and not feeling good for the old barn, than i\'d love to see just one example of a horse who got claimed by Joe Nobody off one of the \'training elite\' and runs a hole in the wind. Does anyone know of an example of Joe Nobody claiming one from one of the usual suspects and exploding him/her into orbit?

If this situation was totally honest, no drugs were involved and it was all on the up and up, you would think that this situation could happen in the reverse.....yet, it never seems to happen that way.

[miff]

I\'ll just say that from a pure TG fig perspective, my take;

1.It was a 5 point improvement from her previous,8 days later, no equipment change, and on a surface, turf, where she was a couple of points slower than on synth.

2.Coming off a drop in class deceased line.

3.Mitchell(good off claims) was not getting many tops lately, I think like 10%.


From a pure racing perspective, she never won on grass,faced multiple faster proven grass winners had dull, flat, backwards moving lines. She got way overbet and whistled.

I keep touch with lots of sheet players, not ONE used this horse, myself included, and were knocked out by this horse in the pick 6.If you follow closely you will see that there were no really bad pick six results in the sequence EXCEPT for this somewhat impossible winner who ran kinda lights out only paying $15.60 creating a carryover of $400+k.

Nice horsemanship by Mitchell maybe, I doubt it.


Mike

[TGJB]

Mike-- just to be clear, saying I don\'t think it was drug induced doesn\'t mean I\'m saying I would use her or would think she\'s likely to run a 7. But coming back to a number she has already run right off the claim could be caused by something as simple as going from a guy who doesn\'t tap to a guy who taps every joint, just to give one example. If she had run a 4 point new lifetime top it would be a different story.

[miff]

I completely agree with the possible tap and know that happens often.Do not know know if that is what Mitchell does. He has turned lots of horses around but normally, like many other move up guys, he has them for like 30 days before they run back.

From my perspective, I used this horse on the drop 8 days prior and watched her struggle and fade.Fast forward 8 days, she\'s pulling the boy out of his seat.

To me, a serious unpredictable form reversal which may or may not have been legit.

Mike

[TGJB]

Unpredictable, yes. But you and I have both got bitten by those a thousand times. You just hope it doesn\'t happen in a situation where it costs you a pick 6, like this one did.

But that\'s a diffrent question, and it occurs to me I might not have made this clear in the past. When I talk about drug move-ups, or even suspicious ones, I\'m talking about things that (on figures) are MUCH more extreme than this. Like that Scott lake filly whose sheet we posted earlier this year. And even then, if it\'s an isolated occurance for a trainer, I don\'t count that as meaningful.

What are meaningful in this regard are individual events that are each extremely unlikely (less than 5%), happening repeatedly for the same trainer. Like getting big new tops out of heavily raced older horses, several times in one month.

[Mall]

I didn\'t realize on Sunday that the article you were waving at me was one you wrote. Too bad you couldn\'t stay Monday to see the race Gary Sciacca arranged to honor Steve\'s mother. Very touching.

Hard to disagree with your basic points, but my take is that the current system is not the endpoint, but one always has to start somewhere. If enough tracks buy into the concept, then it should be a lot easier than it is now to impose stricter testing and disclosure standards which apply on something approaching a nationwide basis, assuming bettors actually support the tracks with the best testing and detection.

P.S. I can\'t guarantee this chart is completely up to date, but if not I\'m pretty sure takeout information also appears with the pps in the drf:http://www.sportsbettingacumen.com/horse-racing-track-takeout-chart.asp

[Cangamble]

HANA is in the process of getting a letter out to support JB\'s position.