Synthetics VS Dirt & Turf Let the BC Debate and Banter Begin

[sighthound]

I think I\'ll stick with my years of professional equine veterinary experience and knowledge when it comes to the actual effects of particular drugs in horses, the causes of injury and breakdown, and the physics of synthetic surfaces.

[Dana666]

\"I think I\'ll stick with my years of professional equine veterinary experience and knowledge when it comes to the actual effects of particular drugs in horses, the causes of injury and breakdown, and the physics of synthetic surfaces.\"

That\'s easier than addressing any of my points, right? Just tell me one thing I said that isn\'t true -what aspect of that scenario I described in my last post doesn\'t really happen?

No personal offense intended (I don\'t even know you), but experts with years of professional experience are what got us into this mess to begin with. Not just in racing but in all matters of the US economy, health care, education, any area you want to name. What professional folks with years of experience do is usually a)cover their asses b)insure they always get paid and the hell with whether or not they actually solve anyone else\'s problems. It is a rare person in your position who actually stands up and calls the corruption by it\'s rightful name and speaks truth to power -- people seldom challenge anything that pays their bills. Where are all the racing writers, TVG/ESPN commentators, etc. who have ever spoken up against the drugs/corruption in racing??? As far as I can tell, Jerry Brown is one of the only people in a position of power to challenge the drug usage in California - where\'s everyone else? I think Stan Bergstein also wrote many columns on the subject - there\'s nothing they can really do to him and Jerry\'s independent, but where\'s everyone else??? I am supposed to trust the experts? You\'re kidding right?

Again, no offense to you personally, but the Vets are some of the worst offenders - you really think the owners/trainers could get away with what they have without the support of the Vets? You\'re going to have to come up with something better than that.

I have a feeling my experience counts for something, too. Playing So. Cal. for about 15 years 3-4 days per week. Watching countless hours of videos, getting to know each horse and knowing what they are and are not capable of and seeing some things over the years that really blew my mind. It\'s always the same comment, too, \"how do they get away with that stuff?\" Think of the impact when I check out of this game: say 3-4 sets of sheets per week, racing forms, concessions at the track, the take out to the track, the money in the pools for the other betters (too often the case!) -- all this and more is gone. You wouldn\'t want to know how many six-figure payoffs I was beaten out of by a juiced up animal, even some that were later proven to be in violation! How do I get that money back? What\'s the effect of that amount of money taken away from a player like me who is going to churn 90% back into the pools? You think I\'m the only one? I\'m not. There are probably hundreds of people like me each year who are now in the process of withdrawing from the game. Now, where\'s the future? You think having rock bands play after the races is going to attract new fans to replace players like me? Go back to my original prediction, Hollywood Park will be luxury homes and Santa Anita a golf-course or something. You\'ll see it.

[Michael D.]

Dana,

I\'ve gone back and forth on synthetic surfaces, but now find them useful. The debate is far from over however, and I agree with your take on the Cal mandate. Just curious though ...

You wrote the following a while back. What made you turn so negative on synthetic surfaces?


\"In the past, I\'ve been very skeptical of the Polytrack panacea, however, after wagering on Woodbine and Turfway recently, I have to say I\'m very impresseed at the fairness of the surface.

My best advice is to handicap the races just like they look without any preconcieved bias. Inside/out/speed/closers, it does not matter. The best horse usally wins.

I think people are going to be very happy if they give it a chance.

A few key points - horses MUST be fit as it is a tiring surface. Look especially for horses who\'ve trained well over it. Though Keenland is a short meet, a very solid angle is a horse who runs first time polytrack and doesn\'t bounce from previous numbers, they usually improve dramatically second time. Horses with good action, efficient movers, do very well on Polytrack.

It\'s a very forgiving surface and most horses will perk up on it noticeably. Of course, times will be MUCH slower so note that also. One note I\'m interested in looking into is horses who train on Polytrack and run on conventional tracks, my guess is they will do very well, but there seems to be a limited amount of examples.

I can\'t wait till Southern Cal goes all Polytrack. Hollywood this fall should be terrific with their super grass course and Polytrack. I wish Santa Anita would get moving faster then they are.

Bottom line, it\'s a great help for the ailing thorobred industry. There is no reason for anyone to worry about this trend. Give it a try, observe some races, tread lightly at first. You won\'t be sorry.\"

[Dana666]

You see, I\'m not really a skeptical person by nature. I do like to embrace new ideas! Man, that must have been 2005-06 or thereabouts? Right? When was that post? It only took me 4 years of frustration and about 400-500K in losses to see the light. I\'m just like anybody else, you know? The second day they had synthetics in California (Hollywood Park) I won 100K on about a $360 investment. I thought it was the greatest thing since sliced bread! I would say that post must have been Fall of 2006. I had a great teacher of mine once tell me the one area where human logic is so completely inept is linking cause/effect!

I will say this in my humble defense. In places where they have a healthy industry, like Canada, Ireland, England (for example) they get along better with synthetic tracks because they have more honest racing, and more horses in general, better trainers, less illegal drugs, and in colder climates, polytracks are a bit tighter. I would not say polytrack has been a disaster in Woodbine as it has in California, but the Canadian racing industry is so much stronger and there are so many other factors to be considered.  It is just one piece of the puzzle, and in case you can\'t tell, I can get a little emotional, and perhaps see that one piece as either all good or all bad. Boy, I wish I could turn back the clock to that post. If I only knew what was coming down the line, I would have taken a sabbatical on the Amalfi coast for a few years. I could have stepped back into the game today with my brain, soul, and bank accounts in tact. I guess hindsight is 20/20.

For the sake of the argument I\'ll post the ten biggest problems/issues with synthetic tracks.

[Michael D.]

I\'ll chime in later in the year, after we see how the BC goes, and after we start to get some \'09 statistics on synthetic surfaces. I\'ll definitely keep an open mind.

For now though, as we head into the BC period, it might be better if we shift the conversation towards handicapping. Nobody wants visit this forum over the next two weeks and find nothing but posts whining about synthetic surfaces.

[Dana666]

Additionally, just to look at the quality of racing this weekend, for example, at Santa Anita really underscores the failure of any attempts they have made to address the problems they face. Keep in mind this is during the Oak Tree meeting and a Breeder\'s Cup season to boot. Tell me if you think these cards indicate the health of a racing product?

Sat  9-24
Race 1 - CLAIMING $20,000 – $18,000
Purse $17,000.
Race 2 - MAIDEN CLAIMING $32,000 – $28,000
Purse $15,000.
Race 3 - ALLOWANCE
Purse $42,000.
Race 4 - MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Purse $36,000.
Race 5 - CLAIMING $10,000 – $9,000
Purse $12,000.
Race 6 - MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Purse $38,000.
Race 7 - CLAIMING $12,500
Purse $11,000.
Race 8 -STAKES
Purse $100,000.
Race 9 -
MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000 – $22,500
Purse $13,000.

Sunday
Race 1 - CLAIMING $32,000 – $28,000
Purse $26,000.    
Race 2 - MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Purse $38,000.
Race 3 - CLAIMING $12,500
Purse $12,000.
Race 4 -
MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT
Purse $36,000.
Race 5 -
CLAIMING $10,000 – $9,000
Purse $12,000.
Race 6 ALLOWANCE
Purse $40,000.    
Oak Tree At Santa Anita - October 25, 2009
Race 7 - CLAIMING $25,000
Purse $16,000.
Race 8 - ALLOWANCE
Purse $40,000.
Race 9 -MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000 – $22,500
Purse $14,000.  

You wouldn\'t see that many cheap claiming races in a weekday card years ago, much less a weekend during a championship season. This stuff is heartbreaking really.

[Dana666]

Oh, you\'re so right. Most of my posts are about horses I\'m touting for one reason or another anyway. I think that dude \'Sighthound\' got my feathers ruffled, and I went ballistic. It\'s easy to push my buttons. I couldn\'t agree more. Let\'s pick some winners. Worry about the funeral after the cup.

[sighthound]

>> That\'s easier than addressing any of my points, right? Just tell me one >>thing I said that isn\'t true -what aspect of that scenario I described in my last post doesn\'t really happen?

Well, alot of what you said in your last post isn\'t \"true\" or even remotely so, it\'s scattered, it\'s most obviously opinion, it\'s all over the map, it jumps from one scenario to the next and is filled with assumptions and anger.

Considering that you misstated what the study orginally in question said (you apparently didn\'t understand the conclusions, as you quoted it in support of something else entirely that it didn\'t support) - even after it was explained to you - and then you continued to ignore what it said - I can only assume that \"addressing your points\" would be an exercise in futility for both of us.

[sighthound]

Your posts on handicapping Cali racing I find enlightening and accurate.

You, however, ruffled your own feathers and pushed your own buttons with no help from me.

[JimP]

But the Keeneland card looked pretty and they race on a synthetic surface. And New York was about as weak and they\'re racing on dirt. So I don\'t see that a weak card at Santa Anita proves anything about synthetics. I understand why such cars can cause you to be disappinted, angry, and frustrated. But it\'s an oversimplification to attribute this calamity to synthetic surfaces. A better case could probably be made that the enhanced drug testing is causing some stables to ship their best horses out. I find that hard to believe personally but it fits the data better than your association to the makeup of the surface.

[Dana666]

You\'re correct. It\'s never one thing, but the synthetic surfaces are a huge part of diluting the quality of the racing out there (esp. at Del Mar and Santa Anita-  Hollywood has a much better surface when it is maintained properly, almost like dirt), no one can argue that point. They just have no horses, so few can run well over it, and the ones that gravitate out there are the ones who mostly stink on dirt. It\'s a bad equation. Despite my earlier rant, I feel sorry for some of the owners. Let\'s say you\'ve been racing out there for years and now you\'ve got horses who won\'t run on synthetic - what are you supposed to do? You\'re right about the other points, too. Keeneland is a different situation entirely. The meet is much shorter, and they all point to it and the t-bred industry is far healthier in Kentucky than California. I\'m getting tired of this discussion.Unless, they sell Santa Anita to a smart management team and they take out the pro-ride, this is all a moot discussion anyway.

[Dana666]

Can\'t disagree. I do that often!

[Dana666]

Scattered, sure; opinion, unfortunately not. If you ever want to write an investigative piece, I could put you in touch with some people. Every word I wrote is true; the horse slaughter express happens again and again with no accountability. I wasn\'t merely focusing on the study in question; perhaps that\'s where the confusion came in. And I didn\'t mean to imply that synthetic tracks are the only cause for all the ills in So. Cal racing, but it may have sounded that way. If you wrote that article, no one (other than a blogger) would ever publish it anyway. Perhaps you live in a nicer racing world than I one I have inhabited, one where the Del Mar ocean breeze is always blowing and the afternoon sun is warm on your face. If you do, God Bless you, I wouldn\'t want anyone to know some of the things I know. I\'m kind of done with this discussion for now. Maybe we could focus on something positive like the Breeder\'s Cup?

[RICH]

There is a nice post on pace advantage, general handicap discussion: santa anith we\'ve had emotions what about the stats. Below is the conclusion, check it out


Overall conclusion:

Dirt routers do well on the poly, not on the turf.
Dirt sprinters don\'t do well on either.
Turf sprints belong to turf sprinters.
Horse who come off the polytrack do well on the same surface, but let\'s not get carried away.
The turf-to-poly angle is largely a myth, and an overbet one at that.

__________________

[Cartman]

The sad part about the situation is that it didn\'t take a terribly high IQ or significant amount of knowledge of racing to predict many of the developments we now see.

I\'m not fortunate enough to know any of the people at the top of this industry. However, it\'s pretty clear that a business model that has politicians and incompetents (sorry for repeating myself) running the show doesn\'t work.  

This is an industry that desperately needs massive consolidation and a single high level entity that sets the rules on drug policy, horse care, and interstate/international betting. The \"states\" have to be out of the picture except for collecting taxes on profits (no more fixed % of revenue).  

At the same time, it needs private profit motivated individuals, casinos, etc.. that understand the customer to invigorate the sport by modernizing, promoting, and setting the \"track take\" to levels where racing can earn a satisfactory return but also compete with poker, sports, and other forms of gambling.  

Fat chance of any of this happening as long as politicans, unions, gangsters, incompetents, and corruption are all a major part of the landscape. Racing in the U.S. is a lot like everything else in the U.S......DOOMED. Thank God they still allow people to move to Asia. Instead of retiring to Florida like most New Yorkers used to dream, I\'m heading to the Far East where they are at least heading in the right direction and not brain damaged.