sekrah Wrote:
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> Girolamo did bounce. When he went on the shelf
> for a year after the 5 as a 2yo. I\'d call that a
> bounce.
Well, I guess, if you believe that, he is an easy toss for you. If he had ran a 4th race as a 2 yo and shown a reaction, then I would say he has too much improvement from his 2 yo reaction level and would agree with you that he is an easy toss.
However, I view his 2 yo campaign the same way I would view Rip Van Winkle\'s or Gio Ponti\'s....i.e. as not establishing a reaction point and giving him license for more continued improvement. Although, I can see your point of view, I do not share it. I have seen too many horses confound that view to trust it (besides Gio Ponti and Rip Van Winkle in this race, Big Brown going into the KY derby being a good example of a horse that shows the difference between the two theories).
Theories may also be different for different types of horses...at a lower level....yes, I might be more inclined to agree....but here...we are talking about the upper echelon of racing with a horse that is extremely talented (so good people are willing to really take their time with him). If they did not think they could get him to the Derby, then why not really take time and do what it takes to get him ready for the BC? Looks to me like what they are doing. If his three races this year had been 6 months earlier and he was now coming into the Derby with the same sheet (except this year\'s campaign 6 months earlier), he would probably be the favorite in the Derby. Now, he shows up with a sheet not drastically different and is 20-1 against horses that are not that much better than what he would have faced in the Derby. Seems to me like a major disconnect. Of course, having said all this, he will probably make me look like a fool, but I am going to go down with the ship on this one.