Derby Futures -- Pool 1

[Lost Cause]

Michael D. Wrote:
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> Lost Cause Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Soaring Empire...Please
>
>
> Lost,
>
> You\'ve been posting on this guy since last fall.
> Hope you had him today. $10.40 wasn\'t a bad price
> in a field loaded with speed. Nice pedigree to go
> long. Won\'t be long before he starts getting some
> triple crown press.

I just saw this post and felt like vomiting..I forgot he was running today and now know that he won.  My wife flew out to Italy and left me with the 3 year old and 2 year old and I forgot about all things horseracing..That would have paid for her entire trip..I really wish he was in the Future pool separately..I sent a friend with a couple of hundred in November around BC time to play a future wager on him at the wynn @125/1.  He came back and told me he forgot...aaaaarghh..

[covelj70]

Soaring Empire ran one impressive race yesterday.

Bumped at the start, in tight down on the rail and then goes 5 wide in what really was a hand ride to get up at the wire, all off of what looked like only 4 published works so there\'s no way he was cranked for this.

Only problem now is that he\'s down to 50-1 at the Wynn.  I am in Vegas now and I got the updated odds yesterday after the race and he was 60-1 early in the day but they crossed that out in pencil on the sheet and he\'s listed at 50-1.

He\'s got alot of catching up to do to get into the Derby.  Unless they plan on bringing him back on short rest, he\'s really only going to have 1 shot and he will need to finish first or second in one of the final preps going a mile and an eigth off of one 7f prep.

He looks like an awesome animal but that seems like alot to ask and I would need more than 50-1 to take on that risk.

maybe the preakness or belmont with him?

[Lost Cause]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> maybe the preakness or belmont with him?


I hope you\'re right Cov or else HR is going to have to get involved as I try to kill my workmate for forgetting to put in that bet.

[covelj70]

this is awesome

[TGJB]

No matter what he does next time out you will get a decent price IF he makes the Derby. If he doesn\'t you saved money.

Which is why you have to get an awful big price to bet this early...

[covelj70]

to that end, I just got back from the wynn sports book.  got ywanna twist at 225/1. lighting fast on the sheets.  distance a big concern but the owners turned down a million dollars for him recently and he\'s in dutrow\'s hands so I can do worse than 225/1 with that set of facts.

[mjellish]

Jim-

I put $200 on Eskendereya at 60-1 at back in January after his ALWN1X win.  I sold half of that ticket for $600 this week.  Not sure if I should have done that or not, but it felt like the right thing to do.  Maybe I\'m getting conservative.

How is Citrus Kid doing?

[covelj70]

MJ

Awesome call with Eskendereya.

Likely a very good call to sell, just too many things that can go wrong between now and then let alone on the big day itself.

CK is doing great.  The Lecomte was actually better than it looked, he made a slight new top with a 3w 4w trip carrying 6 pds more than the rest so the number came up alot better than the race looked visually.

I was happy to make a slight new top/pair in the first 3 year old race.

That said, he still acted like a complete idiot in the paddock again just like before the Remsen.  He had an undescended testicle (that just hurts to even write) that was causing him discomfort and the thought was that under the stress of the pre-race, that was causing him to get very nervous (he pratically kicked the paddock stall down before the Lecomte and then he wouldn\'t go in the gate).  Mena told me after the race that he had used up ALOT of energy before the gate opened.  Given all of the antics, I was even more pleased that he ran a decent number.  We had the undecended testicle removed 3 weeks ago (that hurts even more to write) and now he\'s back breezing.

He\'s not a derby horse but we are going to try him in the Lane\'s End as we think he will like the poly/turf as most of the LDK\'s do.  Lane\'s End isn\'t set in stone but that\'s the plan for now.

On a plane now on the way back from Vegas, I miss that place already

[SonicDonn]

mjellish Wrote:
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> Jim-
>
> I put $200 on Eskendereya at 60-1 at back in
> January after his ALWN1X win.  I sold half of that
> ticket for $600 this week.  Not sure if I should
> have done that or not, but it felt like the right
> thing to do.  Maybe I\'m getting conservative.
>
> How is Citrus Kid doing?

Does ANYONE think selling 1/2 of that ticket was a good move?

I respect mjellish and always enjoy his posts but I am shocked he would sell a $100 win bet at 60-1 on the CLEAR favorite to win the Derby.

That ticket is a chance to win $6000 for $100. I know anything can happen and there are no guarantees, but come on, 60-1!

Obviously, mjellish could afford to lose $100 or $200 on this bet. MAYBE, if someone was struggling to pay rent or feed the family it would be the right thing to do, MAYBE.

No flaming please, I know mjellish is a highly respected member on this board. I am not being disrespectful in any way. Just looking to see if I am missing something.

To mjellish - Good luck on the $100 you still have at 60-1.

[big18741]

I\'d be more critical of the guy he sold it to.Think MJ made an okay deal all things considered.

Big jumpup to a negative # in Feb has to be considered.

[Michael D.]

Sonic,

$6100/$600 is a good deal. Esky is trading at 12-1 (or was earlier in the week). MJ could have bought it right back in the market and made money.

[SonicDonn]

Michael D. Wrote:
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> Sonic,
>
> $6100/$600 is a good deal. Esky is trading at 12-1
> (or was earlier in the week). MJ could have bought
> it right back in the market and made money.

Got it, I didn\'t think in terms of selling and re-buying as a way to judge whether it was a good move to sell, that is a more than fair way to judge the sale.

Even though I didn\'t think selling was a good move, I don\'t think I would have bought for $600, I concluded I would have bought for $400, so it seems my instincts matched the \"current line\"

I originally looked at it as I would buy as much as I could afford at 60-1 and would love to be holding that $200 ticket.

IMHO, if Esky comes close to repeating his last effort, someone is really going to have to step up to beat him, and I don\'t see anyone capable of doing so, at this point..

[sekrah]

Don\'t know what the other two replies are to you but I personally think it was an absolute brilliant move.

[mjellish]

One factor to consider in this is who the ticket was sold to.  I didn\'t offer it for sale on ebay or a board somewhere.  I also didn\'t sell it because I was afraid to lose $100 or wanted to make a quick $400.  I more or less did it as a favor, somewhat reluctantly, to cut someone in...  Always got to keep the wheels greased.

Now that being said, I\'m not going to flip that money back around right now on the same horse at 12-1; either because it\'s not my style or I\'m just not that smart.  Personally, I hope he goes in the Florida Derby, draws the 12 post, gets a wide trip, fades to 5th down the lane, ships in to Churchill and trains like a monster.