Derby Preps

[FrankD.]

4 major preps yesterday and all were won by loose on the lead winners or close stalkers. The only horse all day that impressed me was Dublin in The Southwest, he had the trip from hell !!!! OP, a bit rank and 4 W that should earn him a good number and the experience of getting jostled around in a prep bodes well for Derby Day.

Hutchinson- D\'Funnybone and A Little Warm looked far and away the 2 best and they were. 3W swing on the turn and he was gone, not too excited about 7f 10 weeks from the Derby though.

Fountain of Youth - Pletcher strikes with Eskendereya who stalked a moderate pace to the 1/2 and drew off. Nobody ran the last 1/2 mile of that race at all. Jackson Bend was asked repeatedly on the turn and had nothing but ended up 2nd ? Buddy\'s Saint was mugged on the first turn and not an inquiry or objection on the 9/5 favorite ?

Risen Star - Pletcher again, I liked the winner although was not expecting 5/2. Tempted to Tapit followed Discreetly Mine around the track for a 1, 2 speed pop and no run from Drosselmeyer at all. Again very little running late and a very slow pace. I have to like Tempted to Tapit\'s race, was expected him to bounce big off the last effort in the mud.

Southwest - Baffert ships Conveyance in who was moving very forward and goes coast to coast on dirt. Dublin had a nightmare and can only benefit from his horrible rip going forward. D Wayne loved this horse last summer at the Spa, many thought he was reaching for one more round of glory until he exploded in The Hopeful !

I have to agree with Joe B\'s earlier post that Pletcher always looks good in the preps but is a no show the first Saturday in May. He is on fire all over the country right now. After all he\'s battling Gary Contessa for leading trainer at the Finger Lakes meet being run at Aqueduct. The man loves to burn his owners money !!!

[TreadHead]

Dont really agree with your \"no run\" from Drosselmeyer, he was step for step with them all the way thru the stretch, but after 6f in 1:13 and change the leaders had tons left and you just could not make up any ground on them, no one could.  I\'ve seen claimers at Beulah Park win a 6F race in 1:13.  Now maybe there was something unusual going on with the track variant or timer, but I think if you run that race with a rabbit and the top 2 try to stick to the pace as they normally do, you would see a different result.  

Ron the Greek probably ran the better race being wider and just nosing Drosselmeyer on the line, but neither of them shamed themselves in that race given the circumstances.

[miff]

Very weak fig for Risen Star(beyer 94, a TG 3-ish?)by comparison to Eskendereya,Beyer 106,looking close to TG neg-1.Put a fork in the nickle bred Jackson Bend, Buddy\'s Saint a mulligan.

Risen Star runners looked a wee bit on the slow side for late Feb and need spring jump up to be taken seriously for derby.

SW winner,Conveyance(Beyer 97 like a TG 2) looked just ok to me, on a surface kind to speed yesterday.


Mike

[FrankD.]

I\'m not sure what race you were watching ? Drosselmeyer was 3 or 4 lengths behind thru the whole stretch run and ended up 4th. Ron the Greek was 6th 3 lengths behind him ?

[Silver Charm]

I heard early yesterday that Jackson Bend had been training in a Bar Shoe.

I thought.Esk would run good but not sure how great off a 3PT Top.

Pulsion was being touted everywhere as a bomb.

JB was under a drive early probably because of the foot. But I figured for those guys they were all in.

That was the Exact Box and I blew it. After the computer blew up and a 10 minute reboot which caused me to get shut of whatever play I was going make.

[TreadHead]

My mistake on 3rd place it was Northern Giant, but doesn\'t change the fact that with such a soft fraction up front none of the closers were going to be making up anything regardless.  Drosselmeyer was again running stride for stride with them thru the stretch, they opened up early in the race and the margin was pretty much exactly the same throughout the stretch.  

It fits in exactly with Mott\'s comments on the horse, he said the horse is not all that fast but can run all day.  Again, if the front end doesn\'t have things so easy and starts backing up at the end, he\'s right there and I have no issue with the race he ran under the circumstances.  I admit he was no where near as impressive as Eskendereya yesterday, but in the bigger picture I see no reason to discount his chances in May yet.

[Michael D.]

Re Dublin - just saw the epiglottis surgery story for the first time.

Jock showed an utter disdain for saving ground in the Southwest. Just flying through the short stretch of the OP mile. Pedigree tilted towards middle distances on bottom, but he didn\'t look like he was stopping any time soon on Sat. The guy is a monster, must be 17 hands by now.

A triple crown threat, or a back running miler?

[magicnight]

Surprised you missed that story, Michael. Thanks to DWL\'s hype, this guy has gotten more press than just about any 3YO this side of Looking at Lucky. Those two bad races at the end of last year had the look of breathing trouble, and the finish of the SW certainly resembled his two good runs down the Saratoga stretch last summer. That said, he hasn\'t yet shown that brilliant turn of foot that you typically see from a classic winner. But, yeah, he\'s a big one, and when he straightens out he really grinds up the ground.

[Silver Charm]

This guy is a tough one for me to call. Obviously I\'m partial but I had a hard time getting out of my mind the serious bearing out in the Hopeful and then again turning for home in the Champagne. This did not look like a breathing issue.

Now if all of that is fixed then maybe. Big horse however who really needs a lot of work this spring to catch up. Maybe just the type of trainer to do it.

[big18741]

Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Re Dublin - just saw the epiglottis surgery story
> for the first time.
>
> Jock showed an utter disdain for saving ground in
> the Southwest. Just flying through the short
> stretch of the OP mile. Pedigree tilted towards
> middle distances on bottom, but he didn\'t look
> like he was stopping any time soon on Sat. The guy
> is a monster, must be 17 hands by now.
>
> A triple crown threat, or a back running miler?

Only saw a partial gallop out off the video but it doesn\'t look like he ever went past Conveyance.Oaklawn a quirky strip short stretch at the distance but if my math is correct-Dublin ran his quarters like this:

25.28
22.67
23.94
25.20

Based on what we\'ve seen so far and his bottom pedigree I\'ll take a stand against when they stretch him out.

[Ill-bred]

The toughest race of the weekend to interpret was the Risen Star -- slow early fractions and a quite fast final 5/16.

Can\'t knock the winner, and it could be argued that Stay Put was second best given the wide trip and rally.

Tempted to Tapit, Drosselmeyer, and Northern Giant will need further steps forward to be TC players but they are eligible to improve. Ron the Greek ran ok too.