Rachel Work

[SoCalMan2]

smalltimer Wrote:
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> Mike,
> That\'s a good point.  
>
> Rachel was foaled 1-29-2006 which made her a very
> young 3 year old filly last year. Even this year,
> she just turned 4.  
>    
> Z was foaled 10-29-2004.  When she won the BC
> Classic last year in November, she had just turned
> 5 the week before.  She doesn\'t actually turn 6
> until this October.    
>
> Not as much of an actual age difference as some
> think.

Is Zenyatta a Southern Hemisphere foal?  I don\'t have her sheet or PPs in front of me, but I always assumed she was a Kentucky-bred.  For her to be foaled in October, she either had to be born in the Southern Hemisphere, or had to be a preposterously pre-mature birth.  Maybe i have missed this all along, but if she is an October foal, then that would explain the late start and also her career should be viewed slightly differently.

[SoCalMan2]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> smalltimer Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Mike,
> > That\'s a good point.  
> >
> > Rachel was foaled 1-29-2006 which made her a
> very
> > young 3 year old filly last year. Even this
> year,
> > she just turned 4.  
> >    
> > Z was foaled 10-29-2004.  When she won the BC
> > Classic last year in November, she had just
> turned
> > 5 the week before.  She doesn\'t actually turn 6
> > until this October.    
> >
> > Not as much of an actual age difference as some
> > think.
>
> Is Zenyatta a Southern Hemisphere foal?  I don\'t
> have her sheet or PPs in front of me, but I always
> assumed she was a Kentucky-bred.  For her to be
> foaled in October, she either had to be born in
> the Southern Hemisphere, or had to be a
> preposterously pre-mature birth.  Maybe i have
> missed this all along, but if she is an October
> foal, then that would explain the late start and
> also her career should be viewed slightly
> differently.


Just checked the Breeders Cup Archives,  According to the sheet, she is April 1, 2004, so I don\'t know where the October 29 idea came from unless it is an April fools joke in honor of her TG Birthday.

[nyc1347]

i mean people are saying that shes 4 now and will run better than ever.. we dont kno that.  my pattern on her is that she bounced big last out and no one can give a full proof read of what she will do next out.  flower alley came out 1 point slower than the previous years top having rest and was 4 years old as well.   did nothing but go backwards from that top bc day effort.

[miff]

Flower Alley comparison to Rachel??? Rachels last race was months ago so coming off a bounce is irrelevant to her next start.

[Lost Cause]

bobphilo Wrote:
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>
> Given that Rachel can likely beat anyone except
> Quality Road and Zenyatta if she\'s so much as 80%
> fit, betting against her in her comeback is just
> too much of a stretch for me, regardless of the
> possible payoff.


Have to agree with you on that one..She is too tactical to play against normal horses..If she was a one dimensional type I could take a chance at beating her but she can go to the front or rate a little which puts her at a big time advantage.  If you ask me I would be looking to beat Z first time out as she will be one year older and is at that pace disadvantage and there is always that BC bounce.  
Also one other question..I may be missing something but every time I look at a race at Oaklawn Park, being wide  and being a closer seems to be a disadvantage why do I see a lot of posts about it being a fair track.  I know Z won there before but can anyone see her running down Rachel on that track ...The announcer says \"and here they come into the short stretch at Oaklawn Park\" every time they go around the far turn..Does that alone not give Rachel the advantage

[Flighted Iron]

\"the number is the number and we have to wait and see\"

nyc,

 The whole point is to figure the number out prior to the race last time I checked.Ironically enough though and it\'s a small sample,but according to Rachels
sire she could slow down a point this year.I\'m a big fan of hoss racing so personally I\'d like to see her run even bigger neg #\'s.

mjs

[moosepalm]

I may be mistaken, but, I think that \"short stretch\" call refers to mile races at OP, which begin and end at the sixteenth pole.

[jack72906]

A 3yo filly that..\"bounces\" to a 0 in her 8th graded stakes race in 7 months. If she\'s vulnerable it will be next weekend not in the Apple Blossom IMO.

[SoCalMan2]

Flighted Iron Wrote:
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> \"the number is the number and we have to wait and
> see\"
>
> nyc,
>
>  The whole point is to figure the number out prior
> to the race last time I checked.Ironically enough
> though and it\'s a small sample,but according to
> Rachels
> sire she could slow down a point this year.I\'m a
> big fan of hoss racing so personally I\'d like to
> see her run even bigger neg #\'s.
>
> mjs


It is not just a small sample but a skewed sample if you are referring to Medaglia D\'Oro\'s TGI for 4 yos.  Since she is in his first crop, his 4 yos have only raced in January and February so far.  Presumably, those are the two slowest months for a 4 yo crop.  Although nothing is certain, one would expect his average 4yo performance to come down once the last 10 months of the 4 yo year are in the record books.  Assuming she is able to come out and throw repeated negative numbers, that may be enough to bring that average down.

[nyc1347]

wooow what did i come to here?  lemme just try to be as organized as possible here and maybe i can make myself more clear!  heres some things..


1.   a horse who runs a $10,000 claimer or a $10 trillion race means crap to me.. i dont care if a horse ran in the derby, the Cap, the haskell, the classic or ANY RACE.. what matters to me is that horses PATTERN, ODDS, and number power in previous races coming into THIS race COMPARED TO other horses in a specific race THAT DAY to determine whether its is a play or not.

2.  I DO NOT KNOW AS WELL AS EVERYONE ON THIS BOARD who rachel or zenyatta will run against anyday!  for all we know Z and R may run against a horse forging forward from negative 1s or 2s or 8s that day!  who knows?!!?!  until the entries come out it MEANS NOTHING.  your BEST analysis couldnt beat this projection cause its UNKNOWN.

3.  Sire, workouts, oats, rain...or whatever u guys are talking about will not take my opinion away for ANY horses previous thorograph number or abilities.

4.   rest or no rest, i have NOTHING as well as you all do on how well Rachel will run.. we all have to personally decide whether a horse coming off a bounce of almost 5 points and many months rest is any kind of play.  to ME its NO PLAY at all and chances are the horse will be 1/9 and wayyyy overbet! or MAYBE NOT!?  we have to also consider the entries!
 
5.  JACK is claiming here that IF Rachel is vulnerable it will ONLY be her first time out!  if Rachel runs a 4 the first time out are you THAT confident she will run a winning effort second time out?  NOOOOO how can you be? so what are u talking about? and what is your thought process on!??!?!   YOU clearly gave a GREAT example Jack of how Flower Alley came out as a 4 year old!   FA ran a negative ONE which YOU are saying would be a \"vulnerable effort\" (which you are saying rachel would be vulnerable since she wouldnt run a top effort) and FA still WON.. from THAT point on FA moved backwards EVERY race as a 4 year old!  why couldnt rachel do the same?!  please explain that to me!

6.  I notice many people not taking these thorograph numbers seriously and wagering against themselves such as Zenyatta being able to beat Rachel on last years figures and in my opinion, you are all CRAZY!!  there no basis whatsoever for your opinion!  if you are a thorograph user you CANNOT think that Zenyatta can beat Rachel ANY day unless there was a specific reason for it!  and YOU do not have it until AFTER they both race the next race AND u see entries for the race they are both in.  IF you base your opinion NOW then Rachel HAS to win cause shes clearly faster!

7.  ive heard people say on here that rachel HAS to run better since she is 4 years old now.. i came up with ONE example in flower alley where the horse did crap at 4 years old and did great at 3.. things happen and who knows!  its just ONE example of MANY MANY MANY horses!  (Bellamy Road, etc...)

8.  Someone posted about a month ago or so ago how rachel almost lost to male horses and JUST held crap horses off at Saratoga... like JB just said she didnt run her race and if u look at it SHE BOUNCED 4-5 points and still won that race!  

9. im battling 329048234 different opinions and perspectives at one time when i post something so chill out w me here  =)

10.  let the numbers speak for themselves within an individual horses pattern and number power in a given race!! i dont care who the sire is or what the horse worked out or who the baby daddy is or bla bla bla.. all i personally care about is whether or not THAT horse on THAT given day in THAT given race will run to a certain expectation with certain odds involved!  every bet is different and counteraction wagers will happen countless times within an individual and their opinion.

11.  im not taking away from anyone posting about workouts and such but its just bologna to ME until game day..  kobe can shoot 1 for 10 free throws prior to a game but that means nothing to me.. its all about THAT DAY in THAT RACE against THOSE factors...  just my opinion!  =D  

ps..  i love this board!

[jack72906]

nyc1347 Wrote:
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>  
> 5.  JACK is claiming here that IF Rachel is
> vulnerable it will ONLY be her first time out!  if
> Rachel runs a 4 the first time out are you THAT
> confident she will run a winning effort second
> time out?  NOOOOO how can you be? so what are u
> talking about? and what is your thought process
> on!??!?!   YOU clearly gave a GREAT example Jack
> of how Flower Alley came out as a 4 year old!   FA
> ran a negative ONE which YOU are saying would be a
> \"vulnerable effort\" (which you are saying rachel
> would be vulnerable since she wouldnt run a top
> effort) and FA still WON.. from THAT point on FA
> moved backwards EVERY race as a 4 year old!  why
> couldnt rachel do the same?!  please explain that
> to me!

> ps..  i love this board!

A highly spirited post at 4:40am.

It\'s not real rocket science what my thought process is here. BTW, I didn\'t say \"ONLY\" because anything can happen. She\'s been off since September and while her works have been slow (normal for Assmussen), the bottom line is that she\'s coming in off of a long layoff for a trainer that is a bit better 2nd off the layoff. IMO, that\'s the only thing she has going against her...at this point. Do I think she wins the race? Of course, but I\'m just like most people here, I\'m looking for a reason to play a price horse rounding into form or that\'s in form and ready to fire.

As far as the numbers I don\'t think anyone takes them lightly or \"seriously\". If we did, why would we even be here? We know what they are and Rachel is an obvious freak. She turned away trends and \"patterns\" last year with just about every effort that the majority of us believe in. I see her running a 0 to 1 next weekend and back to her 3-4 negative after that.

ON FA, I understand your thought process. Is there a possibility that RA could flop as 4yo? Sure, but until she starts going backwards, I\'m going to lean the other way.

[Flighted Iron]

Skewed it is.

Thanks,
mjs

[miff]

\"6. I notice many people not taking these thorograph numbers seriously and wagering against themselves such as Zenyatta being able to beat Rachel on last years figures and in my opinion, you are all CRAZY!! there no basis whatsoever for your opinion\'

NYC,

In fairness to Z(who has not demonstrated equal ability to Rachel so far)I\'ll slightly disagree with you and JB regarding what fig Z may run with race dynamics in her favor. While Z\'s one dirt race at OP is in line with her synth figs,I believe that several of her synth figs were on the slow side due to the  race dynamics of many synth routes, i.e. crawl early, power home late.Such dynamics do not lend themselves to fast TG figs,most of the time.I feel that Z is capable of faster figs and her Beyers/Rags are already slanted that way vs TG.

While I believe that the Rachel of last year is too much horse for the Z of last year,it is conceivable that Z could go deeper into negative TG fig territory with the proper race dynamics, e.g. a fast contested pace in front of her.

On Rachel,I\'m not buying that Asmussen is presently \"thrilled\" with the way Rachel is coming up to her 4yr debut.I\'m sure he wanted her to get there slowly but her present works are unimpressive and incongruous with her talent and works of last year.Maybe she is taking more time to come to hand off the break or perhaps laying her body down all last year(running fast) has taken something away.Visually she looks better than last year but whats still inside Rachel is always the x factor which does not present until she races.

Asmussen is a prolific winning trainer and I doubt Rachel will go to the gate without him feeling good about her.

Mike

[Michael D.]

RA is one of the fastest fillies ever, and makes her own pace. I will not bet against her facing f&m. I will, however, try and beat Rachel when she faces an open group with serious pace pressure. If she\'s not on cruise control early, the odds of her putting up one of the freakish figures will be larger than the number on the tote board.

[magicnight]

In such a situation, I\'m presuming you would want to play a closer?

The next horse who runs with Rachel early and finishes will be the first, yes?