ROTW - Sham Stakes

[Michael D.]

Mike, if you put ground in those numbers, Beyer has the races 3 pts apart. If one were to rely strictly on the clock, and include ground, I think the difference would be in the 2 to 3 point range.

[miff]

Hi Mike,

With ground included, Alfie is like a TG 5, Misremembered is coming to a TG zero.If you project Alfie out another eighth the figs would seem much closer raw, but in the case of Alfie, they are projecting off slower figs going in.


Mike

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hi Mike,
>
> With ground included, Alfie is like a TG 5,
> Misremembered is coming to a TG zero.If you
> project Alfie out another eighth the figs would
> seem much closer raw, but in the case of Alfie,
> they are projecting off slower figs going in.
>
>
> Mike


Mike,

18 Beyer points (104-86) is about 9 lengths. Give AB three lengths in ground (3w/4w v 2w/2w), and the difference is 6 lengths. 6 lengths is 3 points.

[miff]

Thanks Mike,I use a different point \"value\" for ground loss, Beyer vs TG.I think when the TG figs come out, the difference between Alfie and Mis will be app 5 TG points.


Mike

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think when the TG figs
> come out, the difference between Alfie and Mis
> will be app 5 TG points.

 

Could very well be. Leaning more on the horses and less on the clock might lead one in that direction, though I haven\'t reviewed the sheets.

On a different note - what do we make of the general bias of the pro-ride over the past few months? In the past, you could completely forgive the front-runners for caving in over this stuff, and dock the closers a few points in the process. Can we make that generalization for this meet? I didn\'t watch enough races to draw a conclusion, but the surface didn\'t appear as demanding in the races I saw.

[miff]

In most two turn races at Santa, speed has been horrible. Up to a couple of weeks ago, front runners were like 4 for 50. For the entire meet, there were only like 5 days when the pro ride was speed biased, most other days favored closers, a few were neutral.

The longer the race at Santa, the worse speed fares. On most Wednesdays(after two days off) speed was awful.Despicable surface needs to ripped up and burned.


Mike

[TGJB]

Mike, tell us how you really feel...

I wish someone had a blood pressure cuff on Ron Charles when, after assuring the horsemen and press that dirt was coming back after the meet ended, he heard Stronach say they weren\'t going to do it after all.

[miff]

JB,

Stronach running out of time and money. He is posturing with the state of Cali to get concessions for his racing business but Cali has bigger economic worries than racing. Many have stated that Stronach knows the rugs days are numbered. It\'s all about money.

Mike

[bobphilo]

Mike,

You and I may disagree on dirt vs. synthetic but at least we\'re consistent.

Stronach has stated that he he prefers the dirt surface and is anti-synthetic. He was crying over having to install all-weathers. The hypocrite is only using the threat of keeping Pro-Ride over the screwed up drainage pipes to get the state to allow him the ruinous laissez faire policy of running Cal. tracks against each other.

The surface issue is a red herring. The real problem is the drainage system which must be replaced. Unless they fix that, there will still be problems whether they cover it with dirt, all-weather or moon dust.

I agree that if they keep the messed up drainage pipes, dirt is the lesser evil because it absorbs water better over non-functional drainage pipes, though we\'d be back to the days of the dangerous rolled tracks when we get heavy rains. Gary Stevens has said he prefers cancellations to riding under dangerous conditions.

 The truth is that we don\'t have to tolerate either. The other Cal. synth tracks with functional drainage systems are not having SA\'s drainage problems.

Bob

[miff]

Bob,

There is another issue smoldering.The BC may award Santa Anita the permanent BC site.There is no better venue in the country from many aspects and CD sees the BC as a money loser and NYRA is just in lame duck status with slots, politicans et al.Santa Anita makes the most sense.

One of the stumbling blocks is the synth surface.By now, even the clueless at the BC realize that many fast dirt runners will no longer make the trip to a Santa Anita BC because of the rug.

Guessing the rug comes up and Santa Anita gets the BC for the foreseeable future.

Mike

[nyc1347]

Its only right that if you do not change the surface for the triple crown races and virtually every big race of the year that santa anita should change to dirt as well if they are going to hold bc day there permanently.  Its a no brainer and fair for all horses.

On a side note though, With everything Monmouth Park is doing this year with purses and race days that track would be a great representation of what the highest quality of tracks should be (minus weather in october). The preps would all be on the east coast and quality of racing would go higher and become more competitive.  PA has tables games starting soon and Delaware has the sports betting.  Would create a huge stir and get the big boys out here all year round.  Monmouth Park with all of these factors would be a great place to have the BC each year. Let Stronach keep playing with himself.

[ajkreider]

By \"every big race\", I assume you mean in the U.S.

Having the synth surface is a plus for many euro based horses, I believe.  Especially the dominant turf runners whose connections might be interested in taking a shot at the classic.

[bobphilo]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob,
>
> There is another issue smoldering.The BC may award
> Santa Anita the permanent BC site.There is no
> better venue in the country from many aspects and
> CD sees the BC as a money loser and NYRA is just
> in lame duck status with slots, politicans et
> al.Santa Anita makes the most sense.
>
> One of the stumbling blocks is the synth
> surface.By now, even the clueless at the BC
> realize that many fast dirt runners will no longer
> make the trip to a Santa Anita BC because of the
> rug.
>
> Guessing the rug comes up and Santa Anita gets the
> BC for the foreseeable future.
>
> Mike

Mike,

There is some validity to your argument and I am still wrestling with the issue myself. One one hand when I see horses racing over a good all-weather surface I see the horses bounding in a natural stride otherwise only seen on grass,where horses where evolved to run and which all-weathers are designed to resemble. That\'s why the number of catastrophic injuries are down because all-weathers have the same cushioning effect and return of energy as natural grass as opposed to conventional dirt tracks, which bear little resemble to the natural soil and grasslands they replace. Dirt tracks may be traditional in this country but that is not the same as natural. I think of a good all-weather track as \"naturalized\" dirt.
Yes there are still some bugs to be worked out, just as when highways replaced dirt roads, but we have to consider how many less horses have died since Cal went synthetic. This has to count for something.

However, I do see your point that running the races that are supposed to decide divisional dirt championships on a grass-like surface, which some of the winners of the countries biggest dirt races cannot compete on, does create calamity in deciding year-end honors.

As an idealist I wish there was one safe standardized surface (with some variations) on which the best horses would win but as a realist I know that that\'s not going to happen soon. Perhaps, just like some tracks have 3 courses with 2 turf and one dirt courses like Bel and SA or a turf and 2 dirt courses like Aqueduct, in the future tracks can have a turf, dirt and an all-weather surface, Look at the multiple courses most Euro tracks have and we have a lot more land.

In the meantime, I agree that BC races and divisional dirt titles should be decided on what is that country\'s current prevalent dirt surface, which is now conventional dirt such as CD, though I also see your point about SA being the most attractive spot. On the other hand, SA\'s all-weather track is one of the reasons the BC attracts so many Euros and is such a success, so there are problems either way.  Of course, I\'m not abandoning hope that someday the prevalent dirt surface becomes \"naturalized\" dirt. We shall see.

Bob

[nyc1347]

of course i mean the US.. lord knows i could care less what happens across seas unless those horses come and ship here or im playing a big dubai race which i tend to pass on. horses dont prep out there from here, that makes no sense.  plus theres probably a good case that Stronach tried to make the artificial surface to attract those across seas owners and trainers.. which would be an ultimate FAIL. who knows but its all a Sham  =D

[P-Dub]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bob,
>
> There is another issue smoldering.The BC may award
> Santa Anita the permanent BC site.There is no
> better venue in the country from many aspects and
> CD sees the BC as a money loser and NYRA is just
> in lame duck status with slots, politicans et
> al.Santa Anita makes the most sense.
>
> One of the stumbling blocks is the synth
> surface.By now, even the clueless at the BC
> realize that many fast dirt runners will no longer
> make the trip to a Santa Anita BC because of the
> rug.
>
> Guessing the rug comes up and Santa Anita gets the
> BC for the foreseeable future.
>
> Mike

Miff,

I\'ve attended the Big Cap every year for the past 20. I\'ve seen some really nice horses in that time: Silver Charm, Tiznow, Gentleman, Free House, Lava Man, Einstein, St Liam, Rock Hard Ten, Siphon, Best Pal, etc...

This year I got to see St Trinians and Misremembered. Nice horses, but I don\'t think I was watching anything special this past weekend. I don\'t mind the surface from a handicapping perspective, I actually did pretty well over the weekend. However, from a fan\'s perspective, it just isn\'t the same. Even watching Zenyatta\'s breathtaking run down the stretch in the BC Classic, as exciting as it was, it just lacked a little something knowing the surface had such a profound effect on the starting gate.

Synthetics have sucked the life out of the top level of racing. I really don\'t mind having it at GG, TP, HOL, or any of the other tracks that currently use it (except SA). But when we are talking about racing of the highest quality, and that obviously includes SA, we really need to get back to dirt.