I say we have a HOTY do over

[sighthound]

You can suppress estrus in mares - I would guess her estrus is already suppressed.

First race off a layoff.  Big deal.  It was a good effort for a training race, she had to put out but Borel didn\'t punish her (a good thing).  

 It means nothing for the rest of the year.  She could come back and be HOY this year, too.  She looked unmuscled and only about 80% in the paddock to me to me.  Just like one would expect a horse to look ... first off a layoff.

Horses are not 100% every race.  You get the horse fit, then pick the race when they are ready.   Aiming for a certain race (take the Derby every year as an example) - nonsensically difficult.  Horses aren\'t robots.  You can try to train them up to a target race, but it doesn\'t mean the horse will cooperate.

Edit:  in the rest of the world, good horses are not expected to win their prep-races leading up to the big race.  Nobody freaks over it.  In fact, a good but unplaced showing could be the perfect prep to destroying the competition next time out. Geesh, folks - these were only prep races.  Public works.  It\'s the body of work over the season that will count (remember \"seasons\"?  Where horses were not expected to do the impossible and race year-round, but had some months off, and were brought back fat and hairy?)

[Flighted Iron]

Thanks for responding so quickly.Imo I thought the race she ran(all things considered)went well.Key word there is layoff.There\'s a quote by Bobby Jones
(I cannot remember it exactly)and he refers to coming back from a layoff as the golf club feeling like a lead pipe and the golf balls feeling like rocks when struck.She\'ll probably make out fine.

Thanks,
mjs

[SoCalMan2]

smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sounds like solid reasoning.  I just figured 3 and
> a half months into the 2010 season most horses
> would have had at least 1 or 2 starts by now.
>
> Appreciate it !!


It is not ONLY a small sample...it is also a SKEWED sample.  For established stallions, you get the whole 4 yo year full of efforts.  For a first time stallion, you are only getting the first quarter of the 4 yo year because there is still 9 months to go in the year.  Presumably, horses as a group steadily improve over the course of their 4 yo year.  That means the quarter of the year you are looking at is the worst quarter of this year with the three best quarters still to come. Not only is the sample small, it is horribly skewed.  This is not a criticism of the stats or of TG.  You just need to be cognizant of what you are looking at.

[miff]

Great minds think alike. Inhaling 50-1 shots, Brilliant!

[Rich Curtis]

Miff,

What do the horses\' odds have to do with whether one should be described as \"swallowing\" or \"inhaling\" her opponents? Sounds like a Bill Clinton thing. \"Yeah, I took in the smoke, but everybody expected me to take in the smoke. Therefore, what I did should not be called \'inhaling.\'\"

Also, regarding the \"closers bias\" in SA synthetic routes: How many synthetic routes were run at SA over the last five days, and how many of those were won wire to wire?

[miff]

Rich,


Any decent horse can swallow an overmatched field(Z swallowed/inhaled the leader by about 1 length). It\'s the clueless hyperbole of her briliance that is being spout about without regard to certain relevant facts. Z is phenominally consistent, not phenominally fast, there is a major difference.When Z faces a field of \"runners\"(negative type TG\'s) and swallows/inhales them, I\'ll be the first to give her props(don\'t tell me the BC had \"runners\" on that surface).Who you beat has much to do with greatness,imo.

FYI,in Zenyatta\'s previous 5 performances(track profile for her last not available) there has been a closers bias every time.That confirmed by the best \"bias\" data available. What happened the last 5 days in Santa Anita routes is only relevant if the track played speed on Sat when Z ran.

Mike

[TGJB]

Sight-- exactly. And she still ran fast enough to win most FM stakes.

Flight-- that\'s how golf feels to me ALL the time.

[nyc1347]

How about this point of view.. If our gauge of her last effort is correct she has gone backwards the 2 races from her top effort. maybe that negative 4.5 (her top race) ruined her?  Never really made sense to me that Asmussen put her on the shelf for so long especially since after her last race she wouldve had about 2 months of rest going into Breeders Cup.   They PASS on the Breeders Cup ($5 million purse) AND now they pass on a $5 MILLION dollar purse at Oaklawn (with 30 days rest and 2nd off the layoff)?!  Thats $10 million in purse money over 7 months with only two races.  What are they afraid of?!  Money?!  In both situations the horse wouldve had plenty of rest given the circumstances in the prior race.  Doesnt something seem really off here?

[Rich Curtis]

Miff wrote:

\"Any decent horse can swallow an overmatched field\"

I would be inclined to go even further by saying that even a lousy horse can swallow an overmatched field.

\"Who you beat has much to do with greatness,imo.\"

 Yes. And it also has much to do with who shows up.

  \"FYI,in Zenyatta\'s previous 5 performances(track profile for her last not available) there has been a closers bias every time.That confirmed by the best \"bias\" data available.\"

  Miff: No offense intended, but if you need help from some unnamed bias experts (comical) to determine whether SA had a closers bias in routes on Saturday, then you might want to cut down on your constant use of the word \"clueless.\"

[miff]

\"Also, regarding the \"closers bias\" in SA synthetic routes:


Rich,

My point was that Zenyatta has raced on surfaces which played to her closing kick on the last five occasions, before SAT.Hee Hee you\'re correct, no such thing as track bias data,that is comical since all tracks play honest every day.


Mike

[Rich Curtis]

Miff,

  As you no doubt knew, I was not saying that I don\'t believe in biases. I do believe in biases and I track them every day. What I found funny was your inability to figure out on your own that Zenyatta did not have a closers bias in her favor Saturday.

Real quick: Here are the pace call positions of the winners from Saturday\'s four synthetic routes:

First at the pace call.

First at the pace call.

First at the pace call.

8th at the pace call, 10 lengths behind the leader.

That last one, of course, is Zenyatta.

[P-Dub]

Rich,

You\'re never going to find many positive comments or support about Zenyatta around here. Its ALL about the almighty number, and people love to point to 1 or 2 isolated big figures others have thrown out. Its been going on for years if not decades. Rachel tossed a freak figure, and everyone around here points to that number....so she is the greatest. Zenyatta is clearly inferior, don\'t you get it by now??

[Boscar Obarra]

tough crowd here ;-)

[Boscar Obarra]

According to some here, they should be revoking the purses Zenyatta has been earning on nothing but biased racetracks vs salami\'s.

 Methinks they protest too much.

[Flighted Iron]

TGJB,

 LOL.Funny thing how a full time job gets in the way of our golf game.Btw,have you ever tried using an impact bag?


mjs