I say we have a HOTY do over

[Rich Curtis]

Miff,

 What is the name of the bias outfit you were referring to earlier when you quoted those numbers?

 I used the \"pace call\" because it is a term that you favor in your posts. I don\'t rely on it for bias assessments. Indeed, I hate the term, and I wonder why people feel obliged to defer to whoever decided which call is the \"pace call.\" In my opinion pace handicapping has produced more dictatorial lunatics than any other area of handicapping (quite a feat), and my inclination is to monkey with the \"pace call\" just to annoy these people.

 I did not say that Zenyatta was beating a speed bias in many of her races. To me that would be just as wrong as saying that she has been helped by closer biases in many of her races.

 We agree that looking at charts is not the last word in bias analysis. But I do believe it is a reasonable starting point, and I look forward to your reaching it.

  I don\'t blame anti-Zenyatta people for trying to use \"closer biases\" to deprive Zenyatta of victories. After all, nothing else has worked.

 I think both Zenyatta and Rachel are superb horses, horses for the ages, and I can\'t think of a bad word to say about either of them. I really prefer taking shots at their connections.

[smalltimer]

Miff,
You need to run for public office.  You\'d fit right in.
You say Z benefitted from the closers bias on Saturday, when clearly the evidence shows otherwise.

Z\'s had 14 races on synthetic and you\'re saying on more than one occassion she would have been beaten if the track weren\'t playing to her advantage. How can you be so intellectually dishonest?  Come on, 14 times in a row she had an advantage?

And Quality Road?  Please.....Is that gonna be your new best hope?
The last time I seen him, he was melting down in California.

Who else you got on the short list in case Rachel doesn\'t come back 100% and Quality Road decides to meltdown again?  It\'s a long time between now and the Spa, gives you a lot of time to find some other live ones.

Also, I asked you to please help me with the TG number that Zardana received on Saturday, since I know you\'re usually the first one to declare.  What was her number?  Was it a new top on dirt?  

Mike in 2010

[Leamas57]

So the last time you saw QR, was in California. Where were you when he generated a sonic boom at GP?

I think QR anywhere near top form takes Zenyatta down. Obviously on dirt. She can make up 12 lengths at nine furlongs non-synthetic runners, but she would need to catch him after fractions that would leave her with 20 or more lengths to make up. Unless the track were very slow, she would never get close enough to read his bumper sticker.

I still think that the horse that had the best chance to win, even on the Cushion Track (ever wonder why they call it that?) surface, on BC day was QR and he mysteriously freaked. Somebody else come into my conspiracy corner, please...

Leamas

[smalltimer]

The last time I saw QR was at the BC in Nov. Santa Anita is Pro Ride, not Cushion.
He ran a big figure a month or so ago.  Since Zenyatta only runs good ones on the artificial in California, I\'m waiting for QR to run a good one somewhere besides GP.

[NoCarolinaTony]

I have got to admit, while on sabbatical from racing and focusing on more important things like family, health, work, golf....(yes golf), NBA Basketball...lol( we actually have an NBA team in Charlotte unlike NYC, NJ, Philly etc), this is the most entertaining read for a horse racing forum out there. Many other boards are way to vanilla for my taste...this board has a Baskin Robbins 31 flavors feel to it (maybe it\'s Fudgie the Whale...i don\'t know)...not that any cares about my two cents worth anyway....

sight hit it best, geez folks it\'s a couple of prep races, we have a long way to go...so don\'t get the agida going this early over the RA vs Z thing.....Although i was really impressed with Z\'s ability to shift gears in stretch more like a running back avoiding tackles....

NC Tony

[miff]

And Quality Road? Please.....Is that gonna be your new best hope?
The last time I seen him, he was melting down in California.



Small,

If you think Z is as fast as QR/Rachel at best,no point in discussing.You are a fan, I am not, I could care less about either horse but note their unprecedented accomplishments. When they race, I know who\'s faster going in,all things equal, and appreciate \"fan\" money in the pools.

Zardana looked like a TG 1 (if JB agrees with Beyer/Hopkins) but in any event a big new top for sure if her previous top was what you posted.She is obviously much faster on dirt.

Mike

[smalltimer]

Thanks Mike,

I REALLY like QR and Rachel.  I want them both at their best. For them to come back and be racing as 4 year olds is what we all want, who isn\'t tired of the good 3 year olds sailing off into the breeding shed just when they were getting good?  That point makes it hard to be a \"fan\" because you just know the Bernadini\'s, the Smarty Jones, etc and leaving the public arena.  How great for the sport was it when Curlin came back and ran at 4?  

Man, you put a race together with Rachel and QR, throw in Zenyatta, a healthy Summer Bird and maybe 2-3 other top flight dirt horses and we got ourselves a horse race to discuss, \"probably\" wager on, and definitely a huge tv and live crowd, and a lot of wagering interest.

I know you appreciate \"fan\" money, as we all do, but trust me, I don\'t play races with any serious money.  But, I do enjoy putting a couple bucks down on these type races.  

Since Zardana ran a big new top on dirt, and yes her previous numbers from the TG sheets are in order from her last 7 races prior to Saturday: (T) 6,6,7,6,5, and AW 4,5 then it is possible, since Zardana is a 6 year old mare now for one that OLD and that SLOW to jump up to a new top, unlikely, but it did happen.  Her turf races were all at a FLAT mile, and her two previous AW races were 8.5 furlongs like last Saturday at the FG.  Plus, her past numbers show she is the consistent type.  But, I don\'t think she\'s ever gonna be confused with Zenyatta, do you?  

If Zardana ran a TG 1, as you suggest, that\'s a 3-4 pt jump over her previous top?  But, her coming from a Turf and AW background showed nothing to suggest that she was capable of running a big new top, in fact, she just proved it could be done.  Although it\'s not likely, Zenyatta could replicate that type of improvement.  A 3-4 point forward move would put Z at least, in the \"hunt\" with Rachel and QR\'s best races ever, right? Again, not likely, but last Saturday proved it is possible. Thus, as you say, \"waxing\" Z could prove to be difficult.  

On paper, Zenyatta, having run -1,-0,-1,-0,-1,0,0,-1:  \"appears\" to be a solid 4 to 5 point better animal than Zardana, on Zardana\'s best day.  To me, the \"unknown\" with Zenyatta on the regular dirt adds a lot of intrigue to a potential matchup with Rachel or QR.  After all, don\'t we already know what QR and Rachel have run on their \"best\" days?  Hell, Zenyatta may just be a 0 or -1 on the dirt, but what if she isn\'t?  

In looking at Zardana\'s 2 previous AW 8.5 furlong races at Santa Anita, her late pace numbers were 95 and 85.  In Zenyatta\'s 8.5 furlong races at Santa Anita her late pace numbers were 130 and 128, that equates to between 17 and 21 lengths difference.  Not including 4 other 8.5 furlong races at DMR/HOL Park which were 117, 105, 113, and 121.  To think that Zenyatta wouldn\'t FLY PAST Zardana in the stretch is not realistic.  It would be ugly in the stretch.  

Again, Mike thanks for the TG number.