Lookin at Lucky

[Silver Charm]

I\'m likin this horse more and more. If you look at his works he was not that excessively trained for this one.

\"I\'ve become a fan of his,\" Baffert said of Lookin At Lucky. \"I like watching him run because I know - he\'s like Silver Charm - you know he\'s going to give you everything he\'s got. And what he did today, getting tripped up, the horse overcame came it. He showed that extra gear. He dug down deep. He\'s got that heart.\"

[nyc1347]

yeaaaa!  AND he will have one more race and then 6 weeks off prior to the derby!  should be loaded!  yes i will say it..  triple crown winner!?

[Halo Fire]

Yeaaaaa!

And you\'ll get 5/2 Derby Day.

Yeaaaa!

[nyc1347]

If you intend to do a win wager then the Future bet may be for you.. u might still be able to get 5-1 odds. I cant imagine the odds going down THAT much with the public seeing him only win by a nose and other horses in there such as Eskandereya, etc.. Also,  if your an exacta, tri or superfecta wagerer and assuming you have 5-2 odds it will most likely be bombs away underneath still leading to huge prices for those wagers.

[Dana666]

Well, he\'s ahead of his classmates at this point. The only thing I\'ll say, and I\'ve always been a big fan of his, is that he was pretty mature at 2, so I don\'t know how much better he can get. If he does get better, he might well be a triple crown winner, but I wonder how much more room for development there is in him? That\'s my only question at this point. He\'s always been super professional and rock solid. Only a real brilliant type might be able to jump up and beat him, and I don\'t know who that might be at this point.

[nyc1347]

i dunno what the last number he ran in the rebel was but this horse only developed 4 points as a 2 year old.   This is a classic example of a potentially great horse...LAL is improving in small steps and not knocking himself out..  reminds of almost a top Frankel horse (RIP Bobby).. horse is pairing and improving little by little.  At any given time he can explode forward to a negative number and once he does he should be able to run those efforts consistently with no problem.   another 4-6 points of development from last years numbers wouldnt be considered a bounce candidate cause its natural development.  

Plus who else is going to be able to beat a horse running a negative 1s-3s or better in this years 3 yo crop at the derby?  There only 2 horses i see improving just as nice who can push into this territory and they are Nobles Promise and Eskendereya.   Looks like a chalk derby to me this year... so far.

[Silver Charm]

Nobles Promise is not going beyond a mile and a 16th with that pedigree.

LAL is in VERY GOOD hands. Pletcher thinks he has the horse. But we are in the middle of March and somebody is saying this Derby looks CHALKY.

You gotta be kidding me.....

[nyc1347]

Nobles Promise has all the right to develop just as much as Lookin at Lucky.  The distance should not be an issue in my opinion but that remains to be seen.

As far as a chalky derby we are in mid march MEANING SIX WEEKS til Derby day! theres only more prep race for each horse for the most part.  If there were to be another horse to step up within a month that same horse would have to come back to that same multiple point top effort again in the derby off a month off or so rest.  How likely is THAT? especially since the horses mentioned above will be second off the layoff and as fresh as can be with no chance to BOUNCE since they havent fully exerted themselves last weekend.  Even a horse as Super Saver will be second off the layoff i presume and all these horses have every reason to move forward but will all be most likely top 5 betting horses that day give or take.   The others just dont seem fast enough to me and the projection of these horses mentioned are more likely to happen then not compared to others in this 3 year old crop.

[Silver Charm]

>Nobles Promise has all the right to develop just as much as Lookin at Lucky. The distance should not be an issue in my opinion but that remains to be seen.


Look at the Pedigrees young fella. Nobles Promise has held once in the stretch and that was at Keeneland. Daddy is Cuvee.

This is not a Derby horse.

[nyc1347]

I dont base my handicapping on pedigree...the individual horses abilities let me kno if its a play or not.  if Nobles Promise is developing forward and is running in nice steps forward what makes you think he cant get 2nd or 3rd in the Derby especially running against horses who are slower?  Even when he hasnt held he has still gotten 3rd in the Breeders Cup Championships (running 2nd fastest) and is a solid contender against slower 3yo\'s this year.   You may hate the horse (and thats fine)but he is a top contender imo no matter what when you compare his forward moving pattern and projected number power to so many other slower horses who are trying to make the derby. Those slower horses have needed to develop so many points already and are bound to bounce or reach ends on their lines with their specific pattern.   NP has just started what seems to be a nice 3 year old campaign and it can only get better from here.

[bellsbendboy]

Nyc

I do not want to be rude here but not putting pedigree into play is like a doctor not taking the patients history into account. For what its worth, a horse sired by Cuvee will never get nine furlongs,let alone ten. bbb

[nyc1347]

ALL of these horses come from some kind of past champion.  When it comes to an INDIVIDUAL race i could care less about some small sample you are trying to speak of.  Cuvee has started about 150 horses as a sire.  What are you basing your opinion on?  THAT?

NP is progressing forward and developing in small steps at a mile and a 1/16 what makes you say that the horse cant get an extra 3/16 of a mile?  I mean thats just obsurd. Do you think he will just STOP? NP has run better as he has run further!   I dont get it.  NP is a top CONTENDER due to his individual pattern and number power compared to the horses he is going to be potentially up against in the derby.  

Because I put money down on races I try to wager on things that are proven within a horses abilities. If I do not do that then it is with projections with certain odds I am willing to accept... or I simply pass.  How in the world would I incorporate a horses sire into THAT equation when ALL the horses coming from THAT sire have totally different patterns and abilities?!  Maybe im missing something here I dont get it.   If 4 horses are running 10s on the thoros on average that have a proven sire to go 1 and 1/4 and NP races against them as an example then according to you NP cant win..  right?  What are you trying to say? please tell me

[nyc1347]

NP\'s first route he won going the 1 1/16 (New Top).. the SECOND RACE was the BC where he ran the second best race running a TU race wide and 4 weeks rest comin from a top effort.. turns around and run 6 weeks later a winning race but got caught going 4w4w leading to a second place finish BUT ran a top that was faster than LALs BC effort..  The Rebel he was 3w3w3w the whole way and dont be surprised if the figures come back saying he ran the fastest but please tell me what I am missing here

[Silver Charm]

He may be as fast as he is gonna be.....RIGHT NOW.

Useful sort who can run on Dirt or Synthetic but Top and Bottom this is not a Classic distance horse.

The others are catching up and soon will be going by in terms of development.

[nyc1347]

That remains to be seen but..

Good news is for the people who like NP somewhere in the Derby puzzle automatically get better odds since he lost to LAL last 3 times out but has the potential to develop nice this year off already fast numbers.  Note that last year coming from that bc race he had 6 weeks off and then exploded forward.  It will not only be similar for NP this year but if they wait til the Derby to run him again it will also be second off the layoff!  I dunno how explosive you want a horse to be but to me its a good look going into the big race.  

The topic has shifted to this but the main point was that with NP, LAL, Super Saver, Rule, D\'Funnybone and Esky will be the top betting choices and thats why I labeled the Derby chalky so far.  The potential for ANY of these horses is huge.

Il leave this topic alone for now but will say that using a horses sire to wager on a horse to me is like using Class.   You get an \"overall\" idea of what has happened and you will get more than not better quality horses overall from certain sires but...  When it comes down to it though each individual race you are playing are small pieces of a much bigger pie and should be taken completely seperate based on situations on that day in that race with all the horses compared to each other.  If a horse is too slow to compete in a given race, hes simply too slow, if a horse is a bounce candidate (bellamy road, sinister minister, etc) no matter what the sire is the horse should bounce.  

I respect everything you guys are saying and to me but this topic about NP is an excuse to argue SIMPLY cause we can go on alllllll day.  The truth is that whether its MY point of view or YOUR point of view we can ALWAYS make that excuse for a horse IF we are getting more odds than a horses projected chances.  If you guys use a sires sample and say that a horse from that sire has %10 winners on dirt over 2000 starts but you get 20 to 1 on that horse to win you are clearly getting more odds than the suggested chances of 10 to 1.  If im using NP and saying hes proven or whatever only the odds can dictate my play.  If you see me get 25 to 1 on NP derby day I dont think you would disagree on the play either.. So this all remains to be seen and im moving forward from here.  

Man i love this board!