Esky out, Rule in

[Michael D.]

Good news for the Fla Derby. I was afraid Esky would scare this thing down to a 6 horse field. Let\'s hope horses like Radio Head, Soaring Empire, Lentenor, and a few others join Rule and the other 3 from the FOY

Makes it a better betting race as well.

Now let\'s hope Esky doesn\'t turn the Wood into a 6 horse race.

[Silver Charm]

Esky didn\'t \"finish strongly\" in his last work. He needs more time so the screwed up schedule Pletcher has been complaining about now works in his favor. He has no choice.

The weather is going to be sunny and dry and around 75. So expect the track to be rock hard and fast.

[analizethis]

Interesting that Rule and maybe D\'Funnybone are going to go to the Fla Derby with Eskendereya to the Wood (tells me he is not yet fully recovered from the big number in the FOY). The rest of the field will not get the same value with the big favorite out but the closers should benefit from an honest pace. IMO this will set up for Ice Box and Soaring Empire who are each training well, have nice distance pedigrees and need the graded earnings from this race in order to get into the KD.

I presume that Jackson Bend is going to the Wood.

It also seems a little odd to me that Zayat is trading more rest for the prep for less rest into the KD.

From the online Thoroughbred Times:

\"Bradley Weisbord of Zayat Stables said timing of the race was the main factor in the change of plans for Eskendereya, who motored to an 8½-length victory in the Fountain of Youth on February 20.
“We’d rather have four weeks [between starts] to the Kentucky Derby (G1) than six weeks,” Weisbord said. “We know Eskendereya runs great at Gulfstream, his last two wins came there, but we’re going to have to go on the road for the big dance anyway and the timing going to the Wood will be better than the Florida Derby would be.”

Could it be that Zayat\'s cash needs are so critical that he is thinking that the improved short term opportunity for cash from winning the Wood (with the extra rest) is more important than winning the Derby?

Bob

[Michael D.]

analizethis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Interesting that Rule and maybe D\'Funnybone are
> going to go to the Fla Derby with Eskendereya to
> the Wood (tells me he is not yet fully recovered
> from the big number in the FOY). The rest of the
> field will not get the same value with the big
> favorite out but the closers should benefit from
> an honest pace. IMO this will set up for Ice Box
> and Soaring Empire who are each training well,
> have nice distance pedigrees and need the graded
> earnings from this race in order to get into the
> KD.
>
> I presume that Jackson Bend is going to the Wood.
>
> It also seems a little odd to me that Zayat is
> trading more rest for the prep for less rest into
> the KD.
>
> From the online Thoroughbred Times:
>
> \"Bradley Weisbord of Zayat Stables said timing of
> the race was the main factor in the change of
> plans for Eskendereya, who motored to an 8½-length
> victory in the Fountain of Youth on February 20.
> “We’d rather have four weeks  to the Kentucky
> Derby (G1) than six weeks,” Weisbord said. “We
> know Eskendereya runs great at Gulfstream, his
> last two wins came there, but we’re going to have
> to go on the road for the big dance anyway and the
> timing going to the Wood will be better than the
> Florida Derby would be.”
>
> Could it be that Zayat\'s cash needs are so
> critical that he is thinking that the improved
> short term opportunity for cash from winning the
> Wood (with the extra rest) is more important than
> winning the Derby?
>
> Bob


The two names that jumped out at me were Soaring Empire and Miner\'s Reserve. A lot of work to be done though.

I\'d prefer D\'Funnybone go in the Swale, as the big one looks to be coming up strong. Haven\'t seen a lot of big names in the Swale discussion.

And I\'ll take Zayat at his word here - he just prefers 4 weeks.

[Beginner]

Let\'s say Esken pairs in the Wood.  Would that change the expectation in the K-Derby had he gone in the F-Derby and paired?

Similarly, if Esken bounces in the Wood, would that change the expectation in the K-Derby had he gone in the F-Derby and bounced?

[TGAB]

This is a question of timing and as a general rule more time, up to a point, is better than less time. A horse has longer to recuperate, recover and re-energize.
As for pairs, off-races or Xs coming into the Derby consider:

   Table 1--Effort Distribution in Kentucky Derby          
         1995-2008         
                  
   top   pair   off   x      
#   20   58   51   111   total   240
%   8.3   24.2   21.3   46.3   100%   

We haven\'t updated this table yet to include 2009 but we will in the next few weeks.

[jack72906]

1 Soaring Empire 20-1
2 Lentenor 6-1
3 Pulsion 12-1
4 Pleasant Prince 15-1
5 Game on Dude 12-1
6 First Dude 8-1
7 Rule 5-2
8 Ice Box 15-1
9 Miners Reserve 6-1
10 Best Actor 20-1
11 Radiohead 3-1

Yummy:).

[Silver Charm]

TGAB help me with this this Table. Is this the distribution for efforts IN THE Derby or for the previous effort of horses who ran INTO the Derby.

This is kind of Beginners question. Also while the data in the Table is accurate is perhaps the outcomes a little misleading because FIELD SIZE,  DISTANCE and other esoteric factors generally leads to a lot of X\'s in the Derby.

Assuminhg of course the Table is a representaion of Derby figures.

[nyc1347]

hahhaha man Rule is so screwed this race!  BOMBS AWAY!  and yes i will follow up on this

[Halo Fire]

Boy, I wish Lentenor goes off 6-1 or even less......he\'s got NO SHOT

[TGAB]

The table is in the Kentucky Derby. And yes, you\'re right this may be the one and only time a horse goes 10 furlongs. But year after year only one to two horses on average run a new top. That\'s plainly evident. The trick is to figure out the ones that will run well, obvoiusly, and the ones that won\'t, not quite as obvious.

[Lost Cause]

There are a lot of Barbaro fans putting money on Lentenor which is always a good thing for us..If I get anywhere near that morning line on Soaring Empire I\'m going to have to smash the piggy bank..

[Leamas57]

I don\'t understand how Rule is 5/2 when he barely beat Uh Oh Bango (who Corbett toasted on the front in the Rebel as I predicted) at Delta. He has talent, but he better move forward...

Leamas

[sekrah]

Haven\'t seen it on here, but there\'s a rumor going around on a couple racing websites that Jess Jackson may be swooping in to purchase Eskendereya, and have Asmussen take over and run her in the LA Derby.

[drbillym]

Has anyone else noticed that this entire Gulfstream meet has had many cases of unrealistic morning lines?  Disappointing to have a 15-1 M/L you like go off at 7/2.  But using in P3 and P4\'s was best way to secure value.