Florida Derby Time

[nyc1347]

oh man here we go...






The numbers are what make the pattern,
> and the numbers by themselves are only numbers.
> Horses are living, breathing animals with
> preferred running styles and distances.  If you
> take a horse like Bourban Bay, for example, and
> try running him at 5F on the grass - see what his
> number comes back at.  Same thing goes the other
> way, try running a horse like Midnight Lute at 1
> 1/4 and see what his sheet turns out to look
> like.


I would completely trust these top trainers to point horses to a correct spot and using a horse like midnight lute who is the fastest sprinter of all time is REALLY extreme and have nothing to do with what i am saying.  Especially when he has been trained to go one turn.
>
> Now those are extreme examples.  But distance
> preferences for horses can be very subtle.
> Sometimes all it takes is an extra 1/8th of a mile
> and horse\'s performance will suffer.  

Can you please give me an example?  A one turn to one turn (ex: 5 f to 6F).. or a two turn to two turn example (8F to 9f) where a horse ran 1F or even 2F longer and couldnt get that distance. Im really curious about this.

They simply
> won\'t win unless they are facing an over matched
> field, get a perfect trip, have a bias aid them,
> etc., and I don\'t care what their pattern looks
> like.  This is especially true at the classic
> distances of 1 1/4 and beyond, and even more true
> in a race like the KY Derby.  


Once again give me an example of that extra furlong being too much where a horse couldnt get it.

Every year for
> almost all of these horses it is the first time
> they will be going 1 1/4, and for many it will
> turn out to be the last.  Under the right
> circumstances a horse that is really more of miler
> may get a 1 1/8th, but that horse will usually be
> dead in the water at 1 1/4.  

example please.

In my opinion, this
> is also why very few horses move forward in the KY
> Derby.  They simply aren\'t able to carry their
> speed or maintain their closing kick at 1 1/4.  It
> takes extra reserves of stamina to get that
> additional 1/8th, and most horses these days
> aren\'t bred or trained for it because the owners
> and breeders want to recoup their money as fast as
> possible.

Look at what you are saying!  Simply pull up the archives and explain this to me... why do a MAJORITY of the horses who did go backwards like you say had either a backwards moving pattern entering the derby OR they bounced off the walls BASED ON PATTERN AND REST!   IF what YOU say holds water THEN your opinion is that whoever did go backwards should be excused for THAT DISTANCE on THAT DAY.. by doing THAT then YOU are saying that the horse should run NEXT OUT with an effort that falls in line with all his other numbers... being that the ONE RACE (kentucky derby)was merely an excuse to not run.  Look how many horses ran in the Derby.. went BACKWARDS or BOUNCED and came back to something in line on their next effort.  And name them in response giving examples of what you are saying here.


 That means racing at age 2, and
> breeding for speed and precocity.  Imagine being a
> young teenager and being taught how to swim fast
> for a 1/4 of mile.  All of your musculature and
> skeletal structure begins to adapt to this
> training.  Then suddenly, you turn 18 and are
> expected to train for a few weeks and then swim a
> mile.  Your body just isn\'t going to adapt that
> fast.  Now imagine that your IQ is 50 and you have
> no comprehension of what distance even is and no
> idea about what is happening to you.  You\'re just
> training as your told.  So in addition to being
> able to physically handle the demands of the new
> distance, somehow mentally you are supposed to get
> all of this and understand that your next race is
> going to be very different than everything else
> you have known.  


By you saying that the human is swimming 1/4 wouldnt you think that its trainer would bring the human back to a similar distance first time out?  These horses who run at 2 have gone the distance already entering a layoff with a new year and some DO reach new tops first out..  so i cant even see any comparison with what you are talking about..  The trainer is going to point the horse in the right direction.



>
> This is exactly what happens in the KY Derby, and
> it is another reason why the national average for
> winning favorites may be a little upwards of 35%,
> but in the KY Derby it is much lower.


By bringing the money factor into this this with a betting favorite most people do not have the information we have.  The public has plenty of times made a horse a favorite that wasnt the fastest horse coming in or who had that best pattern.. so that percentage means nothing especially when we personally wager a horse of the thoro numbers.
>
> I don\'t care how good of a handicapper you are.
> If you don\'t take into your heart that sometimes
> distance takes precedence over pattern you are
> going to lose bunch of money.  And as it sits
> right now, in my opinion, unless I see something
> substantially different over the next few weeks, I
> would be willing to bet a LARGE amount of money
> that this is exactly the case with a horse like
> Noble\'s Promise.  I don\'t care what his sheet
> looks like.  To my eye, the way he fades in the
> lane and shuts down soon after the wire indicates
> he doesn\'t want any part of 1 1/4.  His breeding
> would seem to agree with this.  True, there are
> always horses who outrun their breeding and we
> never know for sure until they try the distance.
> These three year olds can also improve a bunch, in
> a hurry, and sometimes all it takes is a change in
> running style and WHAM - it\'s like the lights
> turned on.  This could still happen with this
> horse, but I think it is highly unlikely.  

Yea a 3-4 wide trip that was 3 points faster than LAL in the futurity, a second best effort running wide bc day and last out where he was wide once again losing ground.  I can totally see him fading in the stretch with trips like THAT.  The point is that in those races he ran faster than the other horses and you dont seem to trust the number for what it is


>
> I firmly believe this to be true of horses.  I
> would even go out on a limb and say that a horse
> like Quality Road probably won\'t win at 1 1/4 at
> the Grade I level anywhere unless he faces a
> really short field of marginal horses.  I\'ve seen
> him race enough now to know he\'s really more of
> miler.  He even set a track record sprinting.
> It\'s a very rare horse that is going to do that
> and also win a GI at 1 1/4 or beyond.  And I would
> look to play against Quality Road at that distance
> if I get the chance.


thats a pretty bold statement going against the fastest horse of all time going two turns.. whos going to beat him?  Your horse with a bla bla sire with %20 whatever going a mile and a 1/4?   that horse will be rested and primed each time he comes out... good luck with all that.


>
> After playing this ever changing game pretty
> seriously for two decades or so, this is something
> I swear you can take to the bank.  Sometimes
> distance will trump pattern.  Especially at the
> classic distances.  I guarantee it.

give me examples!

[P-Dub]

NYC,

We all appreciate your passion for the game; however, you are really getting obnoxious. (I know, I am calling someone else obnoxious).

You never back down, never see another point of view, its all about you. When a man as respected and successful as Mr Jellish comes here and is kind enough to give you a very thoughtful and detailed response to your post, you can at least acknowledge his experience. You choose to continue to be argumentative and stubborn.

JB has also commented on your views, a man who is highly successful as a player and investor. Again, you choose to be argumentative and combative.

This board is littered by your posts. That isn\'t necessarily a bad thing, but your continued rigid thinking and combative posts are really tiresome. Could you possibly try to see things from another point of view?? Your demands of \"show me examples\" comes across as petty.

There are some very skilled players on this forum. I have mentioned 2 of them and there are others. A little humility wouldn\'t be a bad idea.  Good luck at the windows.

[albany]

P=Dub

I agree with your post in all regards.

I\'ve been betting horses since the 50\'s and have met a lot of players who are dogmatic in their views and refuse to consider alternative approaches. They tend to burn brightly for awhile, but invariably flame out early.

This game teaches humility to everyone (even those who are not cursed with self-awareness).

Albany

[jack72906]

Great post Jellish.

Since this pattern \"discussion\" has become so spirited and even insightful in some areas I decided to take a trip to the archives and look at the pattern of the Derby winners the last 10 years. The number to the left of the horse\'s name is their 2yo top and the number on the far right is the figure from the Derby.

Here they are...

8-Mine That Bird  8-5-0(neg)

8-Big Brown 1-3(neg)-4(neg)

2-Street Sense 1-2-2(neg)

4-Barbaro 6-3-1-2(neg)

4-Giacomo 5-4-5-0

0-Smarty Jones 0-0-3(neg)-1(neg)-1(neg)

3-Funny Cide 3-3-1-1

8-War Emblem 8-10-1-1-0(neg)

15-Monarchos 7-3-0-3-0(neg)

6-Fu Peg 6-4-4-2-2

[covelj70]

Jack,

Thanks for taking the time to do this.  Very internesting.

Thanks

[mjellish]

There are MANY examples.  I think it will be more illuminating if you go back and find them yourself.  It should be easy.  All you have to do is look at Derby Runners.  1 1/4 is a completely different kettle of fish than 1 1/8th for most horses.  Just ask any trainer.  I won\'t even debate this with you.    

Look, I\'m not trying to offend you in anyway.  I think you\'ve made some decent posts on this board, and I think you contribute to helping people understand how to read sheets.  It\'s fine with me if you disagree about the distance thing.  But I would strongly suggest you go back through the Derby charts and look up the lifetime past performances of some of those runnners and you will see what I mean.  You will find countless sprinter/miler type horses who were able to carry their speed or closing kick at 1 1/8th from time to time, but not at 1 1/4.  Gayego is the first one that comes to my mind, but there are many others.

I am not saying that some of these sprinters miler types can\'t run ok in the derby.  The best ones still try hard, sometimes they even hang on to hit the board.  But they almost always move backwards on the sheets no matter what their pattern looks like.  They simply can\'t give their best performance at 1 1/4 no matter where they are in their form cycle.

[richiebee]

Albany:

If it was indeed you, great Fla Derby selection on the Rag board.

Great detective work/research on IB\'s Palm Meadows work.

[nyc1347]

Hey Guys

I dont mean to be obnoxious whatsoever.. i have a huge passion for the game and i question everything and attempt to learn as much as I can especially thru examples and using the past into the present. its a never ending life long lesson and we all learn things everyday. I do apologize to everyone on here though and il try not to come across as THAT guy even though i have a target on my head lol.

With that being said I look forward to examples that any can give with what they are saying.  When we talk about patterns and certain situations that horses have been in (rest coming into a race, post positions that day, weight, etc.) we all use the past and present to give us a better idea and what may happen in the future.  The one thing that most of these young horses have in common compared to much older horses is that they mostly have set pattern or are limited in abilities.  By comparing each horse and seeing these patterns and thoro numbers its a universal thing that we can all see and look at and give examples.  

When it comes to sire angles, workouts, etc.  those are universal but to me theres no way of using those angles to identify how a horse may run next out.  A horse may work out slower or much different than other horses.. a horse with a low percentage sire may win a huge race...and etc.    A horse with a poor sire stat lets say running routes could very well involve many horses who had backwards patterns or bounces and that would effect the percentage ITM, TGI or Win %\'s.. even if its a bigger sample there are many things that are involved with a trainers decision to run a horse in a race.  Again, im just asking for examples of ways to benefit from looking at those kind of angles rather than just the number and pattern an individual horse would run compared to others in that given race.


On a side note, thanks for the above jack.. Have you guys noticed that Rule has a similar line to Street Sense (from above) this year?  Rule should be fresh Derby Day!

Based on the my timing and pattern factor I also had Street Sense that year to run big especially coming from the softer polytrack  where he lost to Dominican by a bob..  most exciting ticket i ever had.. Street Sense gave me the pick 4 but i had Teuflesberg in there and it was paying $64k for $1! The worst is that he gets shipped 30 days after to new york and wins next out for fun lol  thats how it goes!

[miff]

\"The point is that in those races he ran faster than the other horses and you dont seem to trust the number for what it is\"

NYC,

Ahem, wider is not always faster,it\'s wider,all part of each races dynamics. Sometimes, wider is critical, sometimes wider is mitigated by other race dynamics and not as relevant as you think. From the standpoint of the methodology, it must always be included. Do you know the difference between methodology fast and racetrack fast? On occasion,they are not the same.


Mike

[covelj70]

NYC,

The passion is great, thanks for the thoughts.

Anyway, one thing I would point you to for an example of how distance matters is the fact that only 8% of horses run new TG tops in the Derby.

There are some other factors involved included 20 horse field, etc but most of them have already run in 12-14 horses fields before the derby and the ground loss caused by all of the extra horses in the derby is obviously factored into the numbers so the main variable in the Derby numbers is the extra distance so the fact that only 8% of horses run new tops when they are going 1 1/4 should be all of the \"example\" that you need.

I hope you are right on Rule.  I know you are wrong on Noble\'s Promise, not a snowball\'s chance in hell that horse goes 1 1/4 with the same closing kick that he has going 1 1/16.

[RICH]

I think nyc is my wife, JB can you check this out please?

[nyc1347]

I understand that wider isnt always faster but in that situation bc day, another horses ground saved (who ran slower in the race) beat both LAL and NP and it was faster.   Also happened in the futurity.. NP ran about a 3 to LALs ground saving 6 and lost.   Im saying that in those races specifically that NP didnt stop in the stretch because he couldnt get the distance that mjellish is saying he cant get.  I am saying that its deceiving that he is \"slowing down\" because hes actually not.. NP is running FASTER BUT also running a further distace than other hores in those 2 examples with poor trips which in turn is the reason for him losing.  We cant take away from the horses abilities or pattern because he lost a race.  The thoro number takes in to consideration within the number and the next time out from that point we hope for a better trip with a good chance to get better odds because of public perception if the pattern, rest and number suggest he can do so in that next given race.

[marcus]

ny ,  With all respect - and I guess I\'m passing the torch here because I thought I was about hard headed as they come , but my pattern read on Ice Box made me uncomfortable with him at the price . Even at 40-1 it seemed like an underlay from my point of view , imo an extraneous or superfluous play .

Personally I\'d rather wait for a situation where a horse would only and potentially need to come forward a point or two at best for a score in the 15- 1 to  20-1 range . However , if the race was seen by many as an opportunity to take a stab - congratulations to them ! They had a good day at the office .

[nyc1347]

Part of that percentage though are horses such as Smarty Jones, Eight Belles, Curlin, SUmmer Bird... etc..

Lets look at summer bird... he ran backwards going a 1 and 1/4 mile inthe derby running a 2.. BUT 3 races leading up to the BC last year were at 1 and 1/4 and were a neg 2, neg 4 and a 1 on bc day.    How can you say that THIS horse couldnt get a mile and a 1/4?  

Oh look at curlin!  he went backwards derby day to a 0 but ran a negative 4 bc day on the same surface.

Lets look at Big Brown who ran a top derby day of a negative 2 BUT running the same distance bc day and ran a 3!  


The point about to 2 horses above that I am saying is that if a horse is developing and going forward then it doesnt matter the distance.. a horse at THAT level of racing at 8F or 9F CAN get the 10F and run even better.
A horse like BB ran a top and then ran terrible BC day.. why?  easy after running two top efforts that year in the negatives (no matter what kind of rest) he reacted!  not cause he couldnt get distance but because his pattern suggested this.  

The %8 you are talking about also includes freak winners but also does not include horses who have paired or have been in line with their patterns.  Which is significant.  A horse who bounces such as bellamy road  or keyed entry on derby day you cant just say, oh he ran bad cause it was a mile and a 1/4 the horse bounced for a reason and distance had nothing to do w that.. he wouldve done the same at a mile.  same going the opposite way.. u cant say oh a horse who ran great going a mile and a 1/4 will ALWAYS be a great runner.. horses run in and out of form all the time.. when u are at the top level all these horses are trained to be able to run pretty much consistent within their indivudual line.. they will jump forward but back too when certain things come about.

If a horse like Summer Bird and Curlin can stay in line with their efforts and run better in time what gives you any indication that a horse like Nobles Promise couldnt do the same?

[richiebee]

nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey Guys
 
> I dont mean to be obnoxious whatsoever. The one thing that most
> of these young horses have in common compared to
> much older horses is that they mostly have set
> pattern or are limited in abilities.  By comparing
> each horse and seeing these patterns and thoro
> numbers its a universal thing that we can all see
> and look at and give examples.  

 
> Based on the my timing and pattern factor I also
> had Street Sense that year to run big especially
> coming from the softer polytrack  where he lost to
> Dominican by a bob..  most exciting ticket i ever
> had.. Street Sense gave me the pick 4 but i had
> Teuflesberg in there and it was paying $64k for
> $1! The worst is that he gets shipped 30 days
> after to new york and wins next out for fun lol
> thats how it goes!

The 3 year old redboard is, to me at least, obnoxious.

As one of the most overspoken posters on this board, and probably one with the
lowest ratio of products purchased to words posted, let me say that you have
become quite hypergraphic in your obsession with pattern methodology.

1) Most Derby starters in this new fragile age have what 7 lifetime starts?
Wouldn\'t I rather rely on pattern methodology when there is a larger sample?
Does a Derby colt with 5 lifetime starts actually have a \"pattern\"?

2) JB mentioned the fact that Derby colt patterns are tricky because a lot of
trainers are engineering a slight regression in the final prep. (Your Street Sense
was a good example of this and many on the board were commenting in 2007 that
Nafzger\'s preparation of SS was similar to his preparation of Unbridled in 1990).

3) If you would like to see an example of breeding in relation to distance-
ability, look at the TG Sire stat for D\'Wildcat, sire of D\'Funnybone. DW has sired
101 runners which made it to the races, making 895 starts among them.

Of the 895 starts, 724 were made at distances shorter than one mile, with a very
acceptable 18% win percentage.

The 171 starts by the get of DW at distances at one mile or over produced 16
wins, a 9% win percentage.

What is striking is not so much the difference in win percentage, but the
relatively small percentage of DW\'s offspring which even were tried at the longer
distances. Not surprisingly, of DW\'s 10 lifetime SWs, 9 were winners at the less
than one mile distance.

The game is great. The Tricky trained D\'Funnybone could of course go on to have
success at the longer distances despite his seemingly sire limited pedigree.

What also makes the game great is the anticipation of ambushing D\'Funnybone at a
short price if and when he tries a route of ground, no matter how good his number
or pattern power is. Just the way I like to look at it, been wrong before.



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