Florida Derby Time

[Silver Charm]

Same as the Filly race.

Case can be made this race was a non-event that fell apart and the winner and runnerup ran about like they did the last time out when dusted by 10 or so.

[Silver Charm]

Davona Dale
Times in 5ths:  :233  :471  1:103  1:352  1:49

Rampart
Times in 5ths:  :233  :472  1:111  1:361  1:491

Florida Derby
Times in 5ths:  :231  :462  1:103  1:36  1:49

[Dana666]

Well put!

[nyc1347]

Interested to see what Rules number was in this race.  Im guessing a regression off the 1 effort as I expected.  Maybe a 2 or 3?   Ice Box maybe a 0?   That be such a huge jump though (6 points) and I would think IB would need at least about 3 months to recover..  that be a biiig jump for this guy.  A pair of that effort (very unlikely) wouldnt be (in my opinion) good to win the derby and I cant see another forward move off such a big move already.. so a regression or bounce are the only other 2 decisions to make for this one... same goes for that 4 horse who developed from a.. SEVEN.   Im looking elsewhere as there are better promising patterns that look much better than IB.

[nyc1347]

Oh and for you guys who I would expect to question my 3 months rest theory... cause im waiting for it.. lol  I am using a round figure such as a horse like Birdstone who came off about 3 months rest off a big jump (into negative territory)from the belmont stakes into the Jim Dandy where he came back to run perfectly fine and win.. or a horse like Bernardini who ran a neg 2 or so and then had 3 months from his next race winning and running a nice top effort with no issues.



A few things ive picked up as a generalization these young horses...


-  When a horse reaches negative territory first out as a 3 year old they usually improve second off the layoff.

-  when horses who make a big jump into that negative territory, I like to have them get 3 months off before running again.
  --  the perfect example is Birdstone and Bernardini as stated above.  Perfect timing and rest and have already hit that top number...came back to it after rest and its a beautiful thing AND most importantly a great betting situation!
  --  poor example a horse like bellamy road who ran a negative 5 had no rest and bounced off the walls... needed something like 7 months off before coming back again to race at gulfstream in january.  Or a horse like Sinister Minister who ran out of his mind and retired soon after.  

-   There are a couple exceptions of course such as big brown (which he still bounced belmont day and even with a lot of rest couldnt get bck to a top in the haskell) or Afleet Alex (who still needed a month off to get back to a neg 2 effort from his original neg 2...  AND even 3 weeks off he ran poorer in the Belmont coming from the preakness.  

-   Timing is everything with these new tops and this includes the winner and runner up in the Florida derby.. same thing with those 3 faves coing into the florida derby.


Looking at this Florida derby race.. I will say that I think Rule should run a great Kentucky Derby race based on pattern and timing from his previous top..i feel he should be used but as Ive said I dont think will improve past a 1... a 1 effort though should be good enough underneath with tris and/or supers compared to other horses in this crop but before jumping to any conclusions we will get a better feel within the next couple of weeks!  Looking forward to it!

[richiebee]

nyc1347 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Oh and for you guys who I would expect to question
> my 3 months rest theory...  
 
NYC: I am past questioning, and pretty much ignoring at this point.

> A few things ive picked up as a generalization with
> these young horses...

One thing I learned in nearly 12 years of leading thoroughbreds around with a
shank and following them around with a pitchfork and waking up at 4AM to feed
them is that they are individuals, and when you \"generalize\" you will generally
make errors in judgment.

>Looking at this Florida derby race.. I will say
> that I think Rule should run a great Kentucky
> Derby race based on pattern and timing from his
> previous top..i feel he should be used but as Ive
> said I dont think will improve past a 1... a 1
> effort though should be good enough underneath
> with tris and/or supers compared to other horses
> in this crop but before jumping to any conclusions
> we will get a better feel within the next couple
> of weeks!  Looking forward to it!

Pure pattern poppycock. Instead of facing an awful field (I think the field in
the Swale was deeper than the Fla Derby) with one other speed horse going 9
furlongs, Rule, who showed no rate-ability, will be facing a full field of
runners,some with legitimate speed, going an extra furlong.

Unless Rule is trained to rate, I call him closer to the caboose than the
locomotive if he goes on May 1.

Now get to work on the quality FG cards this weekend.

[nyc1347]

> Pure pattern poppycock. Instead of facing an awful
> field (I think the field in
> the Swale was deeper than the Fla Derby) with one
> other speed horse going 9
> furlongs, Rule, who showed no rate-ability, will
> be facing a full field of
> runners,some with legitimate speed, going an extra
> furlong.
>
> Unless Rule is trained to rate, I call him closer
> to the caboose than the
> locomotive if he goes on May 1.


Whats poppycock to me is how many people add so many dimensions to something so simple.    Every horse has a different ability and will run into many different situations.  It seems like I am the only that handicaps using the raw numbers of the thorographs comparing each horse with pattern and rest only. How else can I come up with a projection?   Using sire stats or assuming he would need to rate?  What would happen if Rule went soft fractions Derby Day?  And was able to go wire to wire?  well if he was running 8s and 9s I dont think he would be able to win but hes projected to run around a 1 (to me based on pattern) and that goes big compared to others in the field.  THAT number (assuming he ran it) would be good enough to beat MANY horses that already run slower (not counting whatever ground loss that day) no matter on distance, rating, sires, etc.  MANY horses would need an effort they have never ran before to beat him and thats based on the actual Thorograph number and patterns from what I have seen so far.

I dont understand how anyone can go on anything else when all horses have different abilities and patterns coming into a specific race..!?  To me Rule didnt run to his top ability and rate in the Florida derby because he simply didnt have enough rest to run his best based on his pattern and previous efforts with timing.  Wouldnt that be a logical and simple explaination?  I agree he will run against some quality horses but no matter what, a horse would have to step up and run faster than a 1 or 2 (which i am assuming will happen) in order to beat him unless they saved much more ground.  The extra furlong is bologna.. these horses are trained and pampered by the best in the game.  If a horse can get 8F to me they can get 10F as long as the timing and pattern allow that to happen coming into a racing situation.

In general, the only thing I can say that would make anyone change their minds beyond the thorograph numbers and patterns with picking a slower horse would be odds on that given horse..which is totally different since money would be added into the equation beyond just the race analysis.



> Now get to work on the quality FG cards this
> weekend.


Aye aye captain!

[Silver Charm]

Dana thx. Maybe the nicest thing anybody has ever said about my posts here. And maybe the other comments were warranted.

I\'m thinking this Florida Derby is more in the Bull in the Heather category than certainly Big Brown or Quality Road. However as learned last year with Mine that Bird with the rihgt trip and the right track anything can happen on Derby Day.

There is the six weeks of rest and recovery for the winner and runnerup. Like Richiebee I am not to keen on Rule who ran hard. This is not Quality Road or even Funny Cide.

There were a lot of horses bunched up in the Rampart and non of them were all that fast going in. So if the time of this race was similar to the Fla Derby I dont see how the figure for either race can be all that fast coming out.

[covelj70]

Silver,

One thing about last year that we still don\'t know about this year is how many of the best ones will make it to the starting gate.

By the time we got to the First Sat in May last year, we had lost Quality Road, I Want Revenge, Pamplemouse, Old Fashioned, etc, so really we lost most/all of them who had run big numbers heading into the race.

This year, I think there is a fair amount of consensus that Esk and LAL stand out amongst this crop right now.  I certainly believe they do anyway and I know alot of trainers, jockeys, jockeys agents and bloodstock agents that feel the same way.

If one or both of those two can\'t make it to the gate, then I think chaos will regin supreme again at Churchill but if they both make it there the right way, it\'s hard (for me at least) to see both of them getting beat.

Still alot of wood left to chop between now and then, that\'s what makes this so much dam fun.

Thanks for posting those fractions, I hadn\'t realized that before you put them up.

[Silver Charm]

I agree with you there on who shows up. Even when they do like Empire Maker or I Want Revenge something can happen late.

The best thing that probably happened to Esky is he is waiting an extra two weeks for the Wood. If there was no Rule Pletcher probably would have run him in the Fla Derby when he wasn\'t maybe quite ready. I think there is a decent chance he pairs in the Wood then the four weeks should have him about right.

LAL will RUN A TOP on Derby Day. Baffert has at least two who have who won. Silver Charm and Real Quiet. Pioneer of the Nile looked like a winner then the impossible occurred. The guy totally knows what he is doing and if you are betting he doesnt then you are asking for it.

Pletcher is another story........

[covelj70]

The man with the silver hair certainly knows how to have them ready.

Love how he\'s handling LAL right now.

Gave him experience on the dirt and he won the race and ran fast without being cranked up and then it seems like he\'s going to go with a final prep in the SA Derby so no ship and pro ride easier to bounce back from compared to dirt.

I am very anxious to see what number LAL ran in the Rebel.  We should see tomorrow night I would think when TG posts the derby futures pool sheets.

[Silver Charm]

I think LAL\'s Rebel number will be good but nothing super great. If you look at the work pattern leading up to it, the fact he won with some trouble, makes it all that more impressive however.

Good stuff on the Crist Blog about the Pace of the Fla Derby compared to the other 2 similarly timed Stakes. I agree with his thesis. Won the speed duel but lost the race is a great handicapping angle. It is one of two reasons why am called Silver Charm.

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

[nyc1347]

I think the Rebel couldve been about a 0 to negative 1 for LAL.  Which makes him explosive next out!  just hope its not too much improvement second off the layoff cause he will only have about a month off going into derby day.

[TGJB]

Okay, you got me. Why is Rule a bounce candidate off a 1 point top 1st time 3yo, but LAL is explosive off what (if you\'re right) is a 3 point top first 3yo? Both bounced following their 2yo top.

[nyc1347]

Great question Jerry and this is my view of both horses and lines...



Rule improved 8 points last year alone.  When he came out this year he had 3 months of rest from his top and only improved one point (9.75 points of development) telling me, according to his pattern, that he needed 3 months off just to get one point improvement from last year. Rest, at this top level,  seems to be a big thing with this horse running his top efforts. The FIRST 3 months this horse ran he developed 8 TOTAL points.. the next 3 months (with his layoff) he only IMPROVED ONE point telling me that this horse is probably reaching \"the end of his line\" (at least temporarily). Going into the FLorida Derby I read the pattern as he would go backwards due to having limited time off (based on what i saw) and previously showed he needed 3 months off (at the 1-2 level) and I expected an off effort or small chance of a bounce with just 30 or so days off.  

With looking at lucky he finally got thru to a top on BC Day, to a 3,  and having about 30 days off did bounce a month later. BUT the key is that he had only improved FOUR points only with last years line overall. A THREE POINT JUMP IN ONE RACE from only 4 points improvement last year would naturally tell us now in hinesight that this horse had every reason to bounce especially racing 6 times last year every month.  

Assuming LAL ran a 0 to neg 1 last out (first off the layoff at the rebel) he had 3-4 months rest from his top last year to this years first race. LAL has shown EQUAL development from last year coming into this year (unlike Rule) telling me that this is a FORGING horse still and this horse has NOT reached an \"end of the line\" situation.   He is IMPROVING EQUAL to last years line and being that the development is consistent, this horse should run about an average 1 point better or so on average (according to his pattern every month) til he finally reaches the end of that line which is TBD in the future.

LAL next out is 2nd off the layoff, lookin at the pattern he is equally consistent in development from last year, his top efforts based on rest are consistent with his pattern,  rest going into his next race should be absolutely no problem whatsoever having plenty of rest from last years campaign..and to me all of these factors make this horse explosive or at worst a small improvement should be expected next time out in my opinion coinciding with the forging he is showing us.