First look at Oaks-Derby sheets

[nyc1347]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So what then do you make of Rule\'s last workout on
> Sunday?  He breezed in company with Mission
> Impossible and tired in the last 1/8th.  Mission
> Impossible drew off and out worked Rule by about 3
> lengths.
>
> So, if you like Rule do you love Mission
> Impossible?  Or do you just ignore those works and
> figure how a horse works doesn\'t mean much.
>
> Just curious what your take on this is.



Mission Impazible 04/17/2010  PMM  5F  1:02.25  Dirt  Fast  B    

Rule 04/17/2010  PMM  5F  1:02.65  Dirt  Fast  B    

Yeaaaaaa a 0.4 second difference in a workout is REALLY going to make me throw my opinion out the window on Rules pattern/rest coming into the derby.  Not saying MI couldnt beat him or anyone else for that matter but im waiting for post positions to come out next week out before posting my opinion on the race and other horses.

[mjellish]

You do know they worked in company, correct?  To me that means something.  Sure, it\'s only .4 seconds.  But that equates to about 2 1/2 lengths that Rule lost to MI in the final 1/8th of their workout.

That either means Rule is not a very good work horse, or he had an off day on that surface, or MI is doing better than him right now.

I know Pletcher has always said Rule isn\'t much for the mornings unless you ask him to run, and it is an important distinction that he said this before the work.  But my understanding is that Rule WAS asked to run a bit with a couple of shakes of the reins in this work when MI began to draw away, so to me that is not a good sign.

Don\'t want to start a debate, but I was curious as to your take on this and how this may or may not relate to your overall view of this horse and his pattern.  From the sounds of it you don\'t put much stock in works.  You stick with the pattern.

Fair enough.

Will be very curious to see how this guy works over the Churchill strip.

[nyc1347]

Rule has been just fine this whole way and everything is in line so Im not worried about a workout or 2 at all.  If something was really wrong id trust they would scratch him or anyone else for that matter.  Yes im sticking to my read on the pattern and rest that I see and wont add other factors to sway my opinion on the upcoming race.  As we know some horses blaze and some are slower in workouts but on racing day it comes down to that number power, pattern and rest.  Remember Backtalk in the Illinois Derby?  He blazed and did nothing.  They ALL workout and its a consistent factor. The only thing that seperates any horse to me is efforts on previous racing days and form with timing into a race.

[nyc1347]

on the topic at hand:

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/56544/nobles-promise-sizzles-at-churchill

This lung infection thing is like afleet alex a couple years ago.  Guess we will see soon enough.

[richiebee]

NYC:

Of course we all know by now what you feel about workouts (they are unimportant,
just like pedigree).

By focusing on the time of the works, you missed some important knowledge that
Mjellish was trying to pass along to you. You can read his post again, but I will
give you the two key words you need to pay attention to: \"tired\" and \"breeze\".

As to your comment about the so far pretty good Eskendereya and the slower
members of this 3YO crop having \"huge potential\" to be \"the best ever\" let me add
the words \"arguably since 1973\".

Secretariat had the greatest 3YO campaign ever: Triple Crown, 2 track records
which still stand at Churchill and Belmont, world records on dirt and turf,
defeated older accomplished runners on turf. Kind of hard to believe, seeing as
how racehorses as we all know are getting faster. Secretariat was given Eclipse
awards as top 3YO male, top turf male and for the second straight year, Horse of
the Year.

Sham, second to Secretariat in the Derby, is still I believe the answer to the
tricky trivia question \"Who ran the second fastest Derby of all time?\" (Do not
know if Monarchos was faster).

Well back of Secretariat in that 73 Derby was Forego. If you ask people who have
been watching races for 40 years as I have, most, including me, would put
Secretariat and Forego in the top 10 dirt horses in the last 40 years, and I would
have the former on top and the latter in the top 5.

Before annointing any of these colts, one of them has to stand up on May 1 and
say (to use a reference from my tribe) \"Today I am a man\".

Hype is a dirty four letter word.

[nyc1347]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYC:
>
> Of course we all know by now what you feel about
> workouts (they are unimportant,
> just like pedigree).
>
> By focusing on the time of the works, you missed
> some important knowledge that
> Mjellish was trying to pass along to you. You can
> read his post again, but I will
> give you the two key words you need to pay
> attention to: \"tired\" and \"breeze\".


I understand but words to describe fast workouts are \"blazed\" and \"zip\".. there are many times where horses do this in a workout and do nothing next out in a race such as Backtalk last out.  After mj said breeze and tired he also stated that the horse doesnt like working out in the morning.. i dunno.. but i do kno that whatever pletcher did at the start with this horse to now has allowed him to be in the kentucky derby as the 3rd highest graded money earner.  The horse has been fine all this way and it makes no sense to me to worry over something like that when every other indication is a go for may 1st.


>
> As to your comment about the so far pretty good
> Eskendereya and the slower
> members of this 3YO crop having \"huge potential\"
> to be \"the best ever\" let me add
> the words \"arguably since 1973\".
>
> Secretariat had the greatest 3YO campaign ever:
> Triple Crown, 2 track records
> which still stand at Churchill and Belmont, world
> records on dirt and turf,
> defeated older accomplished runners on turf. Kind
> of hard to believe, seeing as
> how racehorses as we all know are getting faster.
> Secretariat was given Eclipse
> awards as top 3YO male, top turf male and for the
> second straight year, Horse of
> the Year.
>
> Sham, second to Secretariat in the Derby, is still
> I believe the answer to the
> tricky trivia question \"Who ran the second fastest
> Derby of all time?\" (Do not
> know if Monarchos was faster).
>
> Well back of Secretariat in that 73 Derby was
> Forego. If you ask people who have
> been watching races for 40 years as I have, most,
> including me, would put
> Secretariat and Forego in the top 10 dirt horses
> in the last 40 years, and I would
> have the former on top and the latter in the top
> 5.
>
> Before annointing any of these colts, one of them
> has to stand up on May 1 and
> say (to use a reference from my tribe) \"Today I am
> a man\".
>
> Hype is a dirty four letter word.


My potential talk only starts and is limited to the last 10 years or less since horses have been running negative numbers.  Its senseless to base a crop of horses at one of the best in the 10 years when you have horses like Bell Road and Sinister Min.  etc.. bouncing off the walls and not being able to compete the rest of their campaign due to needed rest, being knocked out from a top effort etc.   My comment also includes this crop as a whole such as horses who arent in the Derby.. u kno like  D\' Funnybone, 85ina50, a Little Warm, Blind Luck, etc.   Its also unfair to compare these horses to hose 30 years ago cause it wasnt uncommon for horses to have 4-7 preps or whatever prior to the derby.  You just cant do that in the present without serious repercussions.

These days we are looking at trainers who are very tentative and have done only 2 preps or so with spacing. They spot horses very precisely.. Trainers now arent pressured for the derby like it used to be...if it means skipping out on the derby and looking down the road (D\' funnybone type horses) the trainers will with no problem and do not force a horse to do something thats not likely to happen.  All money is made in breeding and if u really look at the huge sire fees its horses who never even won the derby... Ghostzapper, Curlin (which is significant in this paragraph cause he got better and better with spacing and time just as the field of horse this year), etc.   The smart trainers have always looked ahead.. like Zito... u think he cares about not hitting the board Derby day?  When all the top horses run out of gas and cant run for some time guess who steps up weeks later in the Belmont stakes?   That idea to me seems to be grasping many trainers now and future planning is better than present pressure.

The idea with the potential of this group is that they are very versatile and have many chances to all run in so many differnt categories/surfaces and actually make an impact.  Weve seen horses explode from slower numbers already and be able to still run top efforts next out on their respective surfaces (sidneys candy, etc)... or horses who run great on poly then still explode on dirt (LAL, NP, etc) or turf horses who are fast and still run consistent on other surfaces (Interactif, etc)...  this crop as a whole is being treated the best overall that ive seen imo ever and from that i think the potential as a whole looks really great especially with potential and already fast figures run.  

Think about this..  if all the horses who have already run negative numbers this year ran them in the derby would u be surprised?  probably not BUT if that happened years ago with sinister minister, keyed entry, etc.. u wouldve probably been really surprised... the timing and management was just not there like it is this year.

[sekrah]

Rule\'s fastest breeeze at PMM at 5f was 1:02.2 less than a month before he bounced home in the Sam F Davis.

[Rich Curtis]

Richiebee,

Have you noticed that you are taking a \"whippersnapper\" tack against someone (NYC) whose sheet theories are in fact more classical than those of the people challenging him?

Much of what NYC writes sounds as if it came right out of the 1970 Ragozin playbook. That\'s what I find interesting in his posts. He writes in a young, text-message style while he shows his loyalty to theories that are 40+ years old.

[nyc1347]

yes and that 3 point bounce was followed up by rest leading to a top..his bounce after that was only a half point.. hes getting better as time goes on especially with rest given... has nothing to do with works.  Do you think hes the same horse as he was last year in the Sam Davis race?  Cleary not.

[richiebee]

Rich:

As I\'ve said many times about many people, he loves Racing, so I have to love him.

I see what you mean about the old school mentality. \"Number power, patterns and
rest.\"

Which one of us is going to be the one to suggest to NYC that TG and both the
Lens, in their private and personal handicapping endeavors, probably at one
time or another utilized information from a clocker, or kept charts or trip notes,
or analyzed the internal fractions of a race?

[jimbo66]

NYC,

\"all the horses who have run negative numbers in this year\'s preps run them again in the Derby\"

All what horses?  Eskendereya and American Lion (who made it in by a fraction of a point?)

There aren\'t that many fast horses coming in this year, which is part of the handicapping puzzle in trying to beat Eskendereya.

[flushedstraight]

jimbo66 Wrote:
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> There aren\'t that many fast horses coming in this year


I would rephrase that as \"There aren\'t that many horses that have already run fast on real dirt coming in this year\".

Unless you ignore the possibility of the poly-->dirt big jump up discussed to death here, simple logic says you have to concede that there could be some very fast horses coming in this year that simply have not displayed it yet, i.e. Sid, LAL, and at this point I\'m assuming too small a statistical sample from derby history to conclude this type of \"new top\" is unlikely.

[sekrah]

I didn\'t mean \"bounced home\" in the handicapping sense. .   I thought his Sam F Davis effort was strong from all angles.

Rule has consistantly worked much slower than his stablemate Super Saver.   Two times they have run the same distance on the same day.

Apr 4th, Rule breezed 4 in 52.2, SS breezed 4 in 50.4.
Mar 7th, Rule handily 5 in 101.1, SS breezed 5 in 100.3.

Eskendereya has a handful of 5f breezes slower than 102, including a pair of 102.2\'s in the weeks leading up to the Fountain of Youth and Wood.   I will buy seeing how the horse moves along a new surface as a valid handicapping method.  But tossing out a horse because he didn\'t zip through a breeze on his home training track?  Nuts.

I\'ll also add, the fastest workout I see on Rule\'s workout list?   November 28th, 2009 at Churchill, 47.4 Breeze (4/29).

This horse broke the Delta Downs track record at 1 mile as a 2 year old and has absolutely no unhealthy regressions in his pattern.  Throw in that he qualified for the Derby back in early December giving Pletcher the opportunity to train this horse specifically for the derby (Other Pletcher early qualifiers: Limehouse 4th, Bluegrass Cat 2nd) and you have a major contender. (He has a clunker in there with this angle with Scat Daddy though, but he never liked the CD surface and hurt his tendon in the race).

Toss him off your tickets at your own peril.

[toppled]

Well, things have changed quite a bit since those sheets came out. No Esky, sloppy track, etc.   I followed the workouts through the various media sources and my final decisions were based a lot on those works.  I lost my confidence in Quiet Temper after her last work & the post about her weight loss.  When I was done I realized I like a lot of bombs in both the Oaks & Derby & I\'m going to do something I rarely do-spread out quite a bit in doubles.  My Oaks-Derby doubles will have a ton of combos: The biggest ones will be 1,12/1,10,14 16.  I\'ll save with 5 & 11 with a mini saver on 13 in the Oaks and I\'ll save with 6 &,7 in the Derby.  Irony is my best bet turned out to be the race right before the Oaks-I love Asphalt at 12-1 ML & I\'ll be playing decent sized doubles with 1,5,11,12& 13 and saver doubles with 6,7,8 in the Oaks.  I expect the Oaks-Derby DD to pay pretty good even if one favorite wins, but the race I love is Friday\'s 10th.