Not For Nuthin...

[analizethis]

Here\'s a guess at the general odds. Assuming that Interactif drops out and Jackson Bend gets in.

Eskendereya    Favorite                              5 -2
Sidney\'s Candy and Looking At Lucky next at about    5 -1
Endorsement next                                  +-12 -1
Paddy O\'Prado, Ice Box and American Lion next     +-15 -1
Super Saver, Mission Impazible, Line Of David, Rule,
Awesome Act all in group                          +-25 -1
Noble\'s Promise, Stately Victor, Dublin, Conveyance,
Homeboykris, Jackson Bend, Descreetly Mine and
Dean\'s Kitten all                                 +-40 -1

This continues to look  to me like the 2008 group where you had Big Brown at 5 - 2 and Pyro and Colonal John +- 5 -1; Eight Bells, Z humor, Gayego and Z fortune all between 10 and 20 -1; Court Vision, Denis of Cork, Big Truck, Adriano, Bob Black Jack and Cowboy Cal between 20 and 30 -1; Monba, Visionaire and Tale of Ekati from 30 to 40 -1 and Smooth Air, Cool Coal Man, Recapturetheglory and Anak Nakal all over 40 -1. The longest odds that year was Anak Nakal at 53.9 - 1. In other words after an clear three most likely, another half dozen or so possibles and the rest outsiders.

In 2008 the fav won combined with the fourth and ninth choices for a $3,500 $2 tri. With one of the outsiders getting up for fourth the super paid $58k for $2.

If eightyfiveinafifty gets and JB drops out I think he moves into the +- 25 range.

In 2008 $48,000,000 was bet into the WPS pools. Given the general decline in handle since than what the board\'s opinion of how a drop of $3,000,000 or $4,000,000 might impact the odds or does the decline just go pro rata.

[mjellish]

Assuming a nuetral draw, I would think the ML on Dublin will be 15-1.  Because he is trained by Lukas and there has been a fair amount hype about this horse (this is Lukas\' first real contender in a long time) he will take more money than he should.  Unless he gets a really bad post or has some really negative press of some sort, I would be shocked if he drifted up as high as 25-1.  I\'m thinking he goes off more around 18-1 or 20-1 or so with a neutral draw.  You can\'t compare this guy to some of Lukas\' recent derby starters because they were more or less outsiders coming in.  This guy was second choice at 2.7-1 in the ARK derby, and to be honest I thought he looked best on paper going in.  I didn\'t bet the race, but I made him the most likely winner.

Big, strong horse.  But he\'s obviously some type of a head case and Lukas hasn\'t figured him out yet.  Look at the way he blew his last work.  Supposed to work in company and Dublin tore off and passed his workmate within the first 1/8th.  If this horse every figured it out he could be awefully dangerous because he has some talent.  I think you almost have to include him underneath on some of your tickets.  Just hope he doesn\'t suddenly figure it out during this race because as of right now I am not going to have him in the win postition on any tickets.

[Michael D.]

Dublin closed at 10-1 at both Wynn and Lucky (Tues 4/20). He\'s the very solid 3rd choice in the win the triple crown bet at 35-1. Not reliable numbers by any stretch, but the only other prices I\'ve seen are from the UK books, and those aren\'t even close on these things until a few days before the race.

From what I can gather, interest revolves around 3 angles: 1) best looking horse out of the 20, 2) stalker/closer in a race full of pace, and 3) fits on figures.

I wouldn\'t predict 10-1, but I like the under with 20-1 as the number.

[sekrah]

My online book has 20-1.  I see another book with him at 25-1 at this moment.   Anyone betting 10-1 on Dublin at a book is carrying a Forrest Gump IQ, let alone 35-1 to win the TC.

[Beginner]

If he goes off at 30:1, he\'s going to be filling out the bottom of a lot of my tickets.  For what it\'s worth, I see him on 3 different online gambling sites as low as 9:1 and as high as 14:1.  His name itself will have the one or two day a year crowd using him...

[MO]

This is the dilemma with Dublin. Even if he goes off at 20-1, he is going to be a huge underlay in the place and show pools as well as the lower parts of exotic tickets. He is fast enough to win if Esky stubs a toe, but a huge risk because his worst races were here at CD. And they were his worst races BY FAR. He doesn\'t like this track and Lukas is blowing smoke up our asses. I have to take that position until Dublin proves otherwise. The complaints about the Arkansas Derby are off base. That was a damn good race chasing 2 lone speeds, but he had already shown he could handle Oaklawn so one could argue the figure he earned might be downgraded when applying it to the KY Derby.

[sekrah]

What are these sites?  

I see CRIS outlets at 16-1
SIA 20-1
Will Hill 25-1

[MO]

Gotta wonder why Thompson is Lukas\'s choice to ride. Horse loves Saratoga.....

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

I would give up on it.  There are no \"reputable\" or \"real\" betting sites out there offering 9-1.  The ones that are don\'t want action on the Derby, because the \"takeout\" works out to be 60% or higher.

Michael D,

Those books in vegas offer bullshit lines on the Derby futures at this point.  35-1 on the triple crown, are you kidding me?  10-1 on the futures?  Yeah, OK.  The takeout is HUGE.

When Pinnacle puts a line out, you can put some credence in it.  Their takeout is the lowest and they have the sharpest lines, by far.

[jbelfior]

Mike:

Lukas has never been shy about touting his 3 yos. He\' the best used car salesman I have ever heard.

Still think Dublin has issues passing horses (probably due to immaturity or the hood) and has issues with cutting the turns without losing momentum or ground.

Thoro figures are all due to his wide trips as he lacks athleticism. The wide move at Saratoga in hot paced sprints is actually OK, especially at 7F. How does he fail to pass a tiring and weaving Super Saver at Oaklawn?


The way I handicap this race is normally the way I handicap the NCAA. What is the best region? I say it\'s the West.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[MO]

From DRF:

\"Dublin attempted to bolt on two separate occasions between the three and a half and three-furlong poles during a routine gallop, finally ducking out so sharply he actually bounced off the outside fence. Fortunately, he was ultimately able to regroup and complete a very eventful training session. Has not looked sharp since returning to the track following a five furlong workout here earlier in the week.\"

He does NOT like Churchill Downs, D. Wayne......

[sekrah]

He probably doesn\'t like D. Wayne either.

[RICH]

Yeah, he has a nice line, but with three big efforts in a row, outside trips, I say he regresses, the payoff should have been the last one, he goes back IMO

[MO]

So far, I\'m a lot closer than you are.

Dublin is 12-1 ML

LOL.

[sekrah]

Yea, and he\'ll climb to 16 to 18-1..   Even with the defections of a 2-1 (Esky) and a 10-1 (Endorsement).   You had him at 9-1 with both those horses in the race.  Your credibility on this isn\'t very strong.