Re-Handicapping the Derby

[drbillym]

Great start to a good thread, Jimbo, and agree the pace will be demanding.  Now a lot of crap comes out of my mouth but occasionally one can find a pearl in all of that.  The biggest pearl for me came when I hit the Giacomo-Closing Argument exacta-had always been a Shireffs fan and had won on Closing Argument in his previous start.  Sentimal bet. Lucky. Part of the game.  But I think this Derby lends itself to a similar set up.  Having looked at all the derby preps, my feeling is that the two horses most suited to be relaxed and having something left in the tank for that last 3/16 mile are Ice Box and Stately Victor.  I prefer Ice Box on top, once again for sentimental reasoning somewhat, in that Zito compared his recent form to that of Derby winner Strike the Gold, who I also cashed on.  I am clueless on how to rate Devil May Care, but will include her in ex and tri boxes.  I need a fourth horse and look forward to hearing plan B of mjellish as well as Michael D.\'s input, particularly on Stately Victor.

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

I just wish I could book your bets on Super Saver.

This horse has NEVER passed any horse in any race.  Do you expect a \"wire to wire\" win now?  No, you expect Borel to suddenly become \"magical\" and this horse will now face the toughest pace he will face at the longest distance and he will rate off of it and power home.  Please....

He is coming out of the two preps that I believe are near the bottom of the list of preps as far as quality goes this year.  I already mentioned that I think it is a HUGE minus that I couldn\'t get by a staggering Line of David, but he also spit the bit in a HORRIBLE Tampa Bay derby where he set his own pace and got passed by two horses that have both come back to run terrible since.  So, his \"big race\" was his win over William\'s Kitten?

Forget it.  THis horse has maybe a 2% chance to win, at best.

[jimbo66]

dbrillym,

I can\'t argue with your thoughts on taking two horses that will come from well out if it and may appreciate the distance.  They aren\'t the ones I like, but you will certainly get your price if that comes in!!

Yeah, Giacomo over Closing ARgument.  Another bad derby memory for me.  I had a friend who had a futures wager on Giacomo (he liked the name - he wasn\'t a big gambler).  He asked me what I thought of his chances.  I told him I would eat his sports jacket if that horse won.....  Then, on the day itself, I am at the Meadowlands with some friends and my old man.  I liked Bandini a bit that year.  My father tells me with about 5 minutes to post, why don\'t we throw in $20 a piece and \"wheel the two Italian horses on top in the exactas for the hell of it\"  (bandini and giacomo).  (my last name is \"de cicco\").  I tell my dad, \"I am a serious handicapper and don\'t make silly bets like that.............\"

I think the exacta may have paid 10k, if I am not mistaken. I must have heard that story from him about a dozen times at different events over the past few years.........

[RICH]

Maybe, but I see it a little differently, Tampa Bay first time out, tough track to get a handle on. That second race, was just that a second off the layoff, if he runs 15ft quicker, he runs the 1 or so, and everyone jumps on him. I don\'t see that race as a bad second off the layoff, I see it as a jumping off point for a horse and jock who obviously take to CD. We\'ll see soon.

[jimbo66]

RICH,

Understand your view, but I am just not willing to give the horse the two excuses you give him, especially in light of the race dynamics he will face in the Derby.  I believe for him to have a real shot, multiple speeds would have to \"stumble at the start\" or get \"shut off\".

I would need to have seen this horse show he can pass a horse sometime in his career before the Derby to think he can do it on the 1st Saturday in May.

[Uncle Buck]

That is pretty hilarious Jimbo

[RICH]

jimbo


That passing other horses is a good point, there are 6 early and 7 e/p horses, I don\'t think we\'ve seen a derby like this ever?

[alm]

You know I respect your analysis...but have to say this.  SS is 3rd off a layoff...he is one of the first horses I\'ve seen Pletcher bring to the Derby off races that were real preps and not all-out attempts to grab a purse.

I don\'t think that this horse can win, but I think it may run bigger than its prep races and hit the board on Saturday.  

By the way, some Cali backstretch guys are saying LAL\'s problem issue is a back problem.  Has anyone heard that before?

[mjellish]

I don\'t think SS not passing LOD had anything to do with not liking the track.  If anything that track should have moved him up with it\'s downward pitch.  So I agree with Jimbo that this is a pretty big negative for this horse.

IMO you are right about Calvin though.  He definately knows his way around Churchill.  He had SS skimming the rail in his last work, and the horse seems to like Churchill and doesn\'t look like he could possibly be doing any better.  If you think these things move him up enough to get the distance, and you think he will rate comfortably behind the pace and fire in the stretch, then you almost have to use him.  But the fact that Borel is on him is not exactly a secret, and I think he will go off as an underlay simply because of this when compared to what I believe his fair odds should be.  I would need to get about 30-1 to consider him for a win bet or key, but that\'s just me.

So for me, although he is more of a toss, I will probably use him definsively underneath only.  I don\'t want to get beat by a horse that is working well, seems to like the strip and has Calvin on him at Churchill.  But I don\'t want to waste much money on him either because I think he is going to have to run the race of his life to get there and really doesn\'t want any part of 1 1/4.

Just my opinion.  But I\'m sort of an all or nothing guy and I have to take a few stands somewhere.

I\'m so pissed the filly is in the Derby.  I REALLY liked her for the Oaks.  I think she is a must use for the Derby at about 12-1 or so.  She could win this thing with a decent trip.

[jimbo66]

Rich,

I don\'t remember a derby where there were this many early and e/p horses.  I don\'t know if it will be the fastest derby pace ever because Songandaprayer winged it on the front end in the Monarchos year, Keyed Entry and Sinister Minister went wild in the Giacomo year and I thnk it was Groovy who put away Snow Chief in the Ferdinand year, but there are MORE front-runners than any derby in my memory.

Normally, I would say speed is an asset in that you can get position, save ground, etc.etc.  but not this year.  I also think that the plethora of speed horses makes the post position draw a little less important.  In a field with a bunch of speed horses, the field is likely to get strung out further than the normal which allows for more paths for the closers.  Nothing worse than a slow pace for traffic in a 20 horse field.  I had Vicar from post 19 the year they crawled up front and I think I was 10w into the first turn.

[Niall]

Havent seen many posts here actually refer to all the previous racing as a true prep until ALM mentioned it and I think its key with SS and also a few others, specifically Awesome Act. Everything  else aside, some trainers are much better at pointing to a race than others and really believe that euro trainers do that better than most. I see a Stately Victor type Bluegrass performance out of this animal. I watched his BC Juv Turf race and he closed a ton ... Still it\'s all about the price and believe he will be an underlay ...

[MO]

Don\'t most Derby winners \"run the race of their lives\" in the Derby, or, at least, isn\'t that\'s what\'s expected of them?

[mjellish]

Yes.  That\'s exactly my point.  I don\'t think SS will run the race of his life at 1 1/4.  But that\'s just me.  I can see why others would like him.

[TGJB]

MJ-- okay, I need to know how downward pitch helps one horse in a race and not the others.

[mjellish]

Helps front runners.  They get to it first.  Watch two guys riding bikes sometime.  Let\'s say one is in front of the other by 20 feet or so and they hit a downhill slope.  The one that hits it first will gain speed first and therefore gain distance on the other.  I\'m not saying this should have given SS an edge on LOD.  But it helps front runners in general.  My main point was that there is no evidence to support that SS did not like the Oaklawn track.