Race Shapes - TGJB

[TreadHead]

Jim very clearly was trying to say that he was wondering why the race shapes depicted something happening that we all agree will not.  I responded that he was making an incorrect assumption about how race shapes should be interpreted.

I entered this thread to try to help someone, why exactly did you enter this thread?  To show off your charm?

[Rich Curtis]

Miff wrote:

 \"...no, anyone with a cintella of racing knowledge that understands pp\'s.\"

  Oh, OK. I\'ll get back to you when I find a \"cintella.\"

[jimbo66]

Ok Treadhead, TGJB and RICH,

I look forward to anybody\'s interpretation of how the race shapes for the derby help in any way, considering what they show.

And I also look forward to reading a manual that will explain how Mission Impazible and Devil May Care are quicker early than Conveyance.

[TGJB]

No. Have averaged faster first quarters in their last three, not quicker as a horse. That\'s the point.

On 3/28 at Sunland there were 12 routes. Nine had faster first quarters than Conveyance ran, including several claimers. That slow quarter is dragging down his average. He had much quicker quarters earlier.

I expect LOD and Conveyance to be on the lead, a couple of lengths or more clear of the others, because of how fast LOD went (successfully) in his only dirt try, and because Baffert will send Conveyance. Behind that I think the RS will be fairly accurate. I also think that overall the pace will not be crazy fast, except for possibly the front two. This could change if it pours and the jocks decide you have to be on or near the lead to win.

[analizethis]

I\'ve heard somewhere that if it rains Line of David will scratch. Anybody hear that too?

When you say crazy fast I presume you mean like 2000,2001 and 2005 when they went less :46 to the half and less then 1:10 to the six furlong mark. A pace that fast would surprise you, correct?

[TGJB]

I think the horses sitting in the next flight behind the first two won\'t be going anywhere near that fast.

[analizethis]

Thanks.

[jack72906]

I\'ve heard this a couple of times. I hope he stays in.

[Rich Curtis]

Jimbo wrote:

   \"I also look forward to reading a manual that will explain how Mission Impazible and Devil May Care are quicker early than Conveyance.\"

   If you get a chance, Jimbo, please check out the Moss Pace Figures for the horses discussed in this string.

[slewzapper]

We know Conveyance will be allowed to roll early, even before the post draw. We all figured LOD would employ the same tactics that got him to Churchill - now that Sidney\'s Candy is parked in BigBrownland, LOD will likely be hustled out even more to open up the front end of the field and create room for his stablemate.

American Lion has shown an unwillingness to be restrained while in blinkers before; they took them off, allowed him to roll and they earned their ticket to Louisville. So with a handful of speed outside him trying to save ground, does he go after the front runners (in between, a suicide spot), or does he tuck in behind and save ground? If the latter, he may be in front of Super Saver, since they\'re talking \"4 lengths\" off the lead - and if you\'re a Super Saver fan, do you think the horse will be comfortable running inside in a third flight with horses in front/outside of him and nowhere to go for a while?

Paddy O\'Prado, another one who found success upfront and is working sharp, doesn\'t look like he will shuffle back - Desourmeaux knows what it\'s like to have an early horse get off poorly in this race and have to rush up (Sweetnorthernsaint). Add five more outside from there who want to save ground and prefer to track one flight of horses. Add slop, cook at 100K+ screaming fans for two minutes...

Borel and Pletcher may need to rethink strategy. The back of the front on the inside is not the place to be.

[jimbo66]

Rich,

I will do so.  

But even if they tell me that DMC will be in front of Conveyance early, I won\'t believe it.  (and I love the filly, but not from the front)

Thanks,

Jim

[Rich Curtis]

I agree with your Conveyance point, Jimbo, and in general I think it\'s a bad idea to allow pace figures to override habitual early position. To me the best way to use pace figures is the way you\'d use final-time figures if you believed that all the races contained a bunch of horses who were being stiffed by their riders. Give credit for fast figures. Be lenient about slow figures. Marry the figures to your analysis of who was trying and who wasn\'t. Try to figure out who will be trying today. And expect to be wrong fairly often.