Preakness by yours truly =) - You know what time it is?!

[MO]

Congrats to all, especially the jock. Gotta love it. Looking forward to the fig and a paired effort.

Gotta feel for Dublin. And First Who? Ran Super Saver right into the ground. I don\'t know what Calvin was thinking chasing him that wide around the first turn, but for that horse (FD) to keep running, it was pretty impressive. Would love to see Jackson Bend in the Met Mile.

[P-Dub]

Agreed MO, First Dude ran a huge race.  Dublin did well to finish 5th after that ridiculous start he had.

A very exciting race to watch, didn\'t have a dime on it but was rooting for Lucky down the stretch.

[bobphilo]

Well, it looks like the only factors I forgot to consider were the effects of their big Derby races for Super Saver and Paddy O\'Prado who bounced big time. Lookin At Lucky finally got the lucky trip he needed and was a game winner. Behind him it was longshot city with First Dude, Jackson Bend and Yawanna Twist in close pursuit.

It does appear that Borel\'s ground saving tactics have made an impression on his fellow jockeys as nobody went more than 2 wide on the 1st turn and not much wider on the far turn - unusual for a large 12 horse field.

Though it didn\'t really make much difference, Borel seemed to go against the strategy he followed in the Derby where he would rate SS if the pace were hot. He apparently decided the pace would be soft and sent his horse at the start and pressed a very hot pace. Rating SS would not have made that much difference though, as his horse just didn\'t have it today.

Bob

[MO]

I\'m wondering if this is this first time a 2 yo has won the Preakness? Anybody got stats on this sort of thing?

[richiebee]

Northern Dancer was also foaled on May 27...

[MO]

First Dude galloped out in front of the field. If he gets loose on the lead at Belmont and can slow the pace down, he will be very tough to run down.

[Rich Curtis]

MO wrote:

\"I\'m wondering if this is this first time a 2 yo has won the Preakness?\"

There\'s your tabloid headline, MO: \"Sandwich Maker Does It With A Piglet In Maryland\"

[richiebee]

NYC--

So you\'re saying that after your big build up of JB, your only investment on the
win end was a $2 Pick 3?

Once again let me repeat -- show wagering is like riding a Moped or boinking a
fat woman -- no matter how much you enjoy it, why would you want to brag about it?
(And actually your bragging sometimes takes on the tone of an NFL end zone celebration).

But don\'t let me spoil your fun. Enjoy the time at AC with its wonderful
combination of Staten Island wannabe gangsters escaping from their parents\'
basement in their Daddylacs and the Chinese grandmothers enjoying a day away from
their bedbug infested tenements on the lower East Side.

Jackson Bend ran very big. In the early stages he seemed to be uncomfortable on
the inside, was tossing his head around, either resenting being inside of runners
or not reacting kindly to Mike Smith\'s restraint. I look forward to seeing Nick
(\"the Lord is my assistant trainer\") Zito bring this one back for Summer/Fall.

Speaking of restraint, watch Tyler Baze\'s wrestling match with Harissa in the
Blackeyed Susan. Also watch Harissa\'s gallop out after the wire. Will be looking
to bet this one back.

Another big day for Smart Strike, siring his first 3YO Classic winner and the
winner of the Dixie Stakes. (The double paid $117-- thank you Michael D. for the
gentle nudge on Strike a Deal). (Smart Strike is also the dam sire of First Dude).

Errata: LAL is Smart Strike\'s SECOND Classic winner; Curlin came first. (Thanx
Chuck).

[Michael D.]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYC--
>
> So you\'re saying that after your big build up of
> JB, your only investment on the
> win end was a $2 Pick 3?
>
> Once again let me repeat -- show wagering is like
> riding a Moped or boinking a
> fat woman -- no matter how much you enjoy it, why
> would you want to brag about it?
> (And actually your bragging sometimes takes on the
> tone of an NFL end zone celebration).
>
> But don\'t let me spoil your fun. Enjoy the time at
> AC with its wonderful
> combination of Staten Island wannabe gangsters
> escaping from their parents\'
> basement in their Daddylacs and the Chinese
> grandmothers enjoying a day away from
> their bedbug infested tenements on the lower East
> Side.
>
> Jackson Bend ran very big. In the early stages he
> seemed to be uncomfortable on
> the inside, was tossing his head around, either
> resenting being inside of runners
> or not reacting kindly to Mike Smith\'s restraint.
> I look forward to seeing Nick
> (\"the Lord is my assistant trainer\") Zito bring
> this one back for Summer/Fall.
>
> Speaking of restraint, watch Tyler Baze\'s
> wrestling match with Harissa in the
> Blackeyed Susan. Also watch Harissa\'s gallop out
> after the wire. Will be looking
> to bet this one back.
>
> Another big day for Smart Strike, siring his first
> 3YO Classic winner and the
> winner of the Dixie Stakes. (The double paid
> $117-- thank you Michael D. for the
> gentle nudge on Strike a Deal). (Smart Strike is
> also the dam sire of First Dude).
>
> Errata: LAL is Smart Strike\'s SECOND Classic
> winner; Curlin came first. (Thanx
> Chuck).


Richie, I used Strike a Deal in exactas, tris, and every pick they offered. I cashed not a penny. Good to see somebody cashed.

The key there was the lack of pace. He had the figures, and was only a little less than 50% to run back imo. He figured to get the good trip here with no front-runners in the gate (Matz had said they were going to try and rate Nic), and the price covered the layoff risk.

[nyc1347]

I invested almost $4500 into the race..

I did $500 win which lost.
3200 alone was a show wager which made me a little over 7000.

i played pick 3s and 4s for more which i lost but put in a $2 saver all with all with Jackson Bend just for the idea of being alive if it was bombs away which for a couple hundred was well worth it.  My other tickets were more if they came out.  Also played $50-$100 exactas with JB on top of a few horses.


I honestly do feel good about myself as my picks on here doing a show wager alone have made some really nice money over the last several months of posting them in these bigger races.   There were few people (not even including Ragozin) who use these 2 products on the computer and in person that didnt even consider JB as a contender..P.eckhart came on here (who never posts) and said it was a horrible pick... so yes in this situation I actually feel pretty good about myself and the pattern analysis...especially when my SHOW paid just as much as LAL to WIN.. there are loads of people on bragging about THAT here and everywhere and that seems ok.. doesnt make too much sense to me... we all cashed just about the same ROI.

BTW, what do you guys think JB ran?

[richiebee]

NYC--

I feel better knowing about that $500 on the schnozzle

Just hate to see someone put in all the legwork to come up with a live longshot
but then not have enough self confidence to back it up on the front end.

My apologies (also to Moped riders, large women, wannabe gangsters and Chinese
grandmothers everywhere).

[nyc1347]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NYC--
>
> I feel better knowing about that $500 on the
> schnozzle
>
> Just hate to see someone put in all the legwork to
> come up with a live longshot
> but then not have enough self confidence to back
> it up on the front end.
>
> My apologies (also to Moped riders, large women,
> wannabe gangsters and Chinese
> grandmothers everywhere).


lmao i love it.. and this game.   When I love a horse like THAT yes I will certainly do some kind of a win and exacta wager with him on top especially at 12 to 1 and higher.  The ROI would be great if everything went as planned.  

In reality, it doesnt though. Ive learned over the years that things ALWAYS do seem to happen when a horse runs his race (good and bad) and ive run into soooo many situations where a horse should have won but got some kind of Bozo wide trip and he loses BUT hes still in the money (check out LAL in last years BC cup.. he still paid %50 ROI which was a steal imo based on his huge number power in that field).  Ive also seen situations where horses are overbet to win... win at lets say even money or 2 to 1 but still pay $4 to show because of that pool not being bet as much or longer shots coming out in the top 3 spots(the ROI for LAL yesterday was %90 in the show pool with a 3.80 payout!).  There are many situations that happen but by picking spots in these bigger type races the ROI is much bigger than an average race and you essentially get paid more for your opinion to be correct.  

Cheers to all and on to the Belmont!

[kensharkey]

why bet 500 win when u had the pik 3s going with him? no need to risk more.

[nyc1347]

the win and show wager were done earlier in an online account honestly thinking i would get about 15 to 1 or more at post time.  JB was actually bet down a little bit from his ML odds and I just decided to leave the win bet as it was at post time.  I decided later to do some pick 3s and exactas keying JB since I was up for the day (not counting the pending win and show wagers i did earlier on JB) and the odds were there.

[albany]

NYC

There\'s nothing wrong with cashing, no matter what type of wager is made. As a point of historical interest, show wagering was an essential part of Sam \"The Genius\" Lewin\'s approach. Lewin was a legendary handicapper in the era before exotics. He recognized that racing luck often resulted in the tearing up of a lot of win bets even when you pick the best horse. Lewin developed a betting strategy that sought a return of capital even when his selection encountered bad luck. In general terms, the strategy can be summarized as follows:


5-1 or higher -- 50% to Win and 50% to Show (this assumes a $4.00 payoff to show which would get your money back)

3-1 to 9-2 -- 40% to Win and 60% to Place (a place price of $3.40 would get your investment back)

Even money to 5-2 -- 100% to Win

Under even Money -- No investment is justified



The range of odds listed above would, of course, depend on field size. The key is getting at least $3.40 to place or $4.00 to show.

Over the years, I have often used Lewin\'s approach when I place large bets. It gives you some margin for error should your horse have bad luck, but still gets you a fair percentage on the front end. If the price is short, however, you bet to win only. If it\'s too short, pass the race.

Albany