I personally think that rest is one of the most misunderstood factors of horses and form cycles. Quite simply, every race either puts something into a horse or takes something out of them. And not all horses are the same.
In general it takes 2-3 weeks for a horse to really begin to recover from an effort. A bigger effort can require more time, but not always. Sometimes not racing a horse or giving them too much time in between starts is a BAD thing.
I think it is very important to take into consideration the circumstances that surrounded the big effort when trying to evaluate how likely that horse is to regress, move forward or hold form into their next race. Was there a track bias that benefited the horse in his move up race (almost sure not to run as well next out), was there a change in meds or equipment (likely to run just as well again), did the horse get a perfect trip or pace set up (almost sure not to run as well without that same set up), did the horse have a good foundation to begin with (more likely to recover quickly), was there a surface or distance change, etc.
I think a person can have much more luck with pattern handicapping if they take some of these things into account when looking at the numbers. The numbers by themselves often don\'t tell the whole story. In Aikenite\'s case, he may have really liked the slop or the cut back in distance to a one turn mile. He may not have run any harder in the Churchill race than he did at Keenland or Gulfstream before that. If the Preakness was a one turn mile on a sloppy Churchill track he may well have run another 1 or even better. Had he rested three more weeks and come back at 1 1/2 in the Belmont he probably would have run worse.
I guess what I am trying to say is that just because a horse runs big doesn\'t mean they have to have extended rest or they won\'t fire again. You can\'t just take the effort and numbers at face value by themselves. You have to look at the circumstances around the effort and take them into account, and I don\'t think you can be too rigid with how you apply rest standards to any particular horse or pattern.
But that being said, in general, I agree that big efforts spaced too close together will almost always eventually catch up with a horse. And if one doesn\'t do it, two usually will. So I like to see 4-6 weeks rest at some point between races. More rest than that is usually a negative for me unless it was a planned vacation or part of a trainer\'s plan for targeting a specific goal. And if I see a really big effort, especially one that comes off a layoff (see Quality Road in the Donn), I will almost always play that horse to regress unless I see or hear positive info about how the horse is training.
Eventually all horses need a break and if you don\'t give it to them they give it to themselves.
