Figure Making Question for Alan or Jerry

[Silver Charm]

When is a good time to ask a question like this. This is Belmont week and I know this is probably a bad time to discuss how some numbers are made.

Just let me know.

[Rick B.]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> When is a good time to ask a question like this.
> This is Belmont week and I know this is probably a
> bad time to discuss how some numbers are made.
>
> Just let me know.

I\'ve been meaning to ask you guys if you can also disclose the recipe for making Coca-Cola, as well. After the Belmont would be fine.

SC -- seriously, exactly what kind of answer do you think this inquiry is going to generate, other than \"over our dead bodies\"?

It\'s quite possible I am missing some subtlety here. Am I?

[Silver Charm]

I just settled in to start wagering so maybe this is the wrong time but I dont want to be a teaser either.

The J Whitcome Riley Stakes (see Riley Tucker and Chief of Affairs in the Reb Board Room). The trips per DRF were 7 wide flattened and 5 wide turn, respectively.

TG has both 1W

I saw the replay and it was obvious after a rain the inside of the track was muck. Nobody wanted to go near it.

Beyer gave the race good Figs. TG has it about a pair for both. Since they both ran relatively the same wide trips how can the final time be a proper barometer since EVERYBODY was losing ground.

Would Ragozin adjust like this assuming there was an adjustment.

BTW-this is why it is a good idea for people to watch some replays just before they make a bet.

[Rick B.]

OK, I get it now. Thanks, and if I seemed a bit condescending, I apologize -- I just couldn\'t grasp what you were getting at with your original inquiry.

[Silver Charm]

Condescending Rick B?? Silver Charm would never do such a thing...wink

Here is the Chart and the obvious wide trips for the whole field

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFChart.cfm?TID=IND&CTRY=USA&DAY=D&DT=5/12/2010&STYLE=EQB&RACE=8&BorP=B

I am not trying to trash DRF and their Chart Callers (who do a great job) but I did not see this effort for Riley Tucker as a \"Flattened\" but instead chasing a \"mudlark\" who was skipping along.

[Boscar Obarra]

Just as an exercise, think about what would happen if every horse on an entire card ran 5 wide or better.

[msola1]

If they all ran five or more wide, they\'d have all run further than they would have otherwise, and that would have to be taken into account in the figures. I thought this issue had been put to rest a long time ago.

Mike

[Silver Charm]

All of the times would be slower than Par? But Beyer gave the Reily runners Tops.

I have a headache. Was that the point??

[Rich Curtis]

SC,

  You need to know whether the relative groundloss (horse to horse in the race in question) was accurate, and then you need to know whether the race was tied to other races run that day. Some errors like this are meaningful, some are meaningless.

[TGJB]

Basically, what matters is where the horses are relative to each other, not to the rail. In other words, it matters that one lost two lengths of ground relative to the other, whether it\'s rail/3w or 3w/5w.

A lot of chart comments about horses going wide are about where they are in the stretch, not on the turns.

[JimP]

\"what matters is where the horses are relative to each other, not to the rail.\"

Can you elaborate on that? It doesn\'t make sense to me. If you\'re ever going to be able to use the figures to compare horses from different races don\'t all the figures have to be relative to some common base such as the rail?

[TGJB]

No. The common base is the figures themselves. All the other variables are built into them.

If you were trying to compare Beyer figures-- which DON\'T take ground into account-- that would matter. In other words, if all the horses in one race were 5w and the ones in another were on the rail, and they both got 80\'s, the ones that were wide would be getting cheated.

We do the figures for each race separately (see \"Changing Track Speeds\" in the Archives on this site). As a rule days hold together, but that\'s just a happy circumstance. Each race is dealt with on its own, and the figures are based on the previous figures of the horses and the relationship between the horses after adjusting for beaten lengths, ground and weight.

[Silver Charm]

I think that is kind of what I was getting at. Each race, each day has to be reviewed for reasonableness.

There are unforseen events that occur (and sometimes quantifying those events can be difficult) but if there are not adjustments then big errors can happen.

IE-See Crist Blog on the Met Mile Day. Based on the previous dirt races QR would have received a 123 Beyer and Musket Man a 114 with the next two finishers receiving extraordinary figures.

However with four consecutive turf races prior to the Met on a sunny dry day it is safe to assume from the raw figures something changed.

If the figures were allowed to lose their consistency the handicapper, who still needs to use his own judgements in his decision making, is toast......