The idea that weight \"brings them all together\" has been bogus since its inception. One pound \"too much\" stops any horse. Great champions have been beaten by simply adding one more pound on top of their previous big weighted effort.
We already know Z can \"effectively\" carry 129#, and we now know Rachel can \"effectively\" carry 124#.
We just don\'t know if Z can carry 130# and Rachel can carry 125#\'s.
I don\'t think Rachel has any difficulty or runs any slower carrying 122# than she does carrying 120#. I don\'t think she runs any faster carrying 120# than when she carries 122#. They can only go so far, so fast, given the size of these animals.
When Zardana upset Rachel at 8.5 furlongs, she was getting 2#, then in the rematch and the predictable \"bounce of the year\" she was getting 4#.
Against Zenyatta yesterday, Zardana had a weight concession of 11#\'s. It didn\'t allow her to spring the upset, but it kept her in the hunt for a long time.
In Rachel\'s race Saturday, the really good news is she showed she could carry 124#, but was only spotting an average of 9# per animal. Z\'s race showed she was spotting an average of 14# to each horse. Factor being as they move on, those weight concessions could be the same, but a lot better group of horses to try to beat. Let\'s face it, there were a couple of cupcakes in each race.
If both Rachel and Zenyatta showed up at Saratoga and were high weighted, say 126# each, they could each be giving some real solid weight away to some awfully good animals.
I do think the additional weight plays into the way that Rachel runs. I think it, at least visually, affects her explosiveness and her athleticism. I don\'t think she can take on another 5#\'s and not be compromised. In fact, I think if Rachel and Z were both weighted at 129#\'s, Zenyatta runs past her in the last 1/8th of a mile, because I don\'t think, (could be wrong) that Rachel looks the type to pack that really BIG weight. In my opinion, 124# is only \"decent\" weight for a horse the caliber of Rachel....But, she proved she could effectively carry it, so I think that\'s BIG. 129# is a completely different level of weight. Z is simply the more physical, longer striding animal with the physical size to carry it a long ways and not have it stop her, but it does slow her down, its clear it takes her \"longer\" to get cranked up because of the stage of the race when Mike\'s asking her. As someone on here suggested they run with Z packing 130# and Rachel 126#, I think you\'re talking a real crap shoot. I think its possible they both get beat in that scenario, assuming its a field with a couple of other top notch animals.
I\'m convinced there\'s an assigned weight (within reason) that will stop either of them. My concern lies with them carry big, big weight. They\'re both such great champions, with such huge hearts and desires to win, it sometimes causes an injury, or just knocks them out.
If Rachel continues to move forward, the good news is she would pack 123# if she runs in the Classic, good news, she proved she could carry it at least for 9f.
No offense intended here. We\'re all in agreement these are 2 very special race horses. Z pulling it out late, Rachel beginning to look like her old self. Let\'s hope things work out and they can finally meet.
Lastly, it just doesn\'t look like Rachel\'s having fun out there.
