ROTW: PA Derby??

[jbelfior]

Could be an interesting analysis considering the pattern of a certain late-blooming 3yo who was ill-advisedly thrown  to the wolves at Saratoga.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[TGJB]

That race is a possibility, I\'ll make a decision tomorrow.

[jimbo66]

Joe B,

Without even seeing the sheets, I can say this has to be a good betting race.  First Dude is an awful favorite.  Runs the same race every time.  Shoots to the lead, gets passed on the turn, seeming about to back up to oblivion.  Then seems to regroup in the stretch to finish 3rd or 4th.

I start the handicapping by penciling him in for 3rd for 4th and work from there.

Afleet AGain had a string of \"1\'s\" from what I recall, before backing up in the Haskell.  Not sure what he ran in the Travers.  Gets a decent post.  With First Dude as the ML Favorite, at a top of just about 0 or so, Afleet AGain at 12-1 would seem to be value.  

Friend or Foe (likely your \"certain 3 year old\") had a decent line before Saratoga, getting down to a \"2\" or so.  After two rough races, against those \"wolves\" not sure I can expect a new top, especially after he draws outside.
The price (12-1) makes up somewhat for the post, but not sure I could key him.  Although just saw that he gets 8 pounds.  Hmmmm.....  Much more interesting.    

A Little Warm had paired 0\'s I believe, before the Travers, but I believe both races were run on heavily speed-favoring tracks.  

Will have to wait to see the sheets before I comment any further.  The memory gets shot with age.......

[TGJB]

Age? What do you know about age?

[jbelfior]

Jimbo:

I wish my memory was as bad as yours.

Great job. Your Afleet Again analysis is interesting. Maybe the inside draw gets him in the number this time.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[FrankD.]

He must know a lot about age. Apparently he forgot to come up on get away weekend

Missed ya jimbo.

[jimbo66]

Frank D,

Yes, it was awful to miss that 2nd weekend.  One weekend a year at Saratoga just isn\'t enough.  Work is a terrible thing, especially when it interferes with horse racing!  

TGJB,

As for age, everything is relevant.  They say \"years with children\" can be like dog years, they count twice.  I don\'t necessarily believe that, my kids haven\'t aged me at all.  But I would say \"years of getting beat at the wire, hitting 3 out of 4 and 5 out 6 in multi-race bets\", Those years age the hell out of you.  And I have lots of those..........

[moosepalm]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> TGJB,
>
> As for age, everything is relevant.  They say
> \"years with children\" can be like dog years, they
> count twice.  I don\'t necessarily believe that, my
> kids haven\'t aged me at all.  But I would say
> \"years of getting beat at the wire, hitting 3 out
> of 4 and 5 out 6 in multi-race bets\", Those years
> age the hell out of you.  And I have lots of
> those..........

Then I must be a hundred and ten.