Joe B,
We will have to see what final odds are, but I believe LAL will be 5-1ish. I strongly doubt the horse is 8-1.
I wouldn\'t group Fly Down and First Dude together because IMO, they are very different. First Dude is a one-paced horse whose best race is not competitive (unless the Penn Derby figures are much faster than expected). He has a flat line at best and to me is a strange horse in the way he gets easily passed and then seems to fight back a bit after the race is over. I would have found him interesting in the BC Marathon.
Fly Down, on the other hand, has some upside and is somebody that will be on my spread pick-4 tickets. His Travers got a very good figure, although I have to admit I have trouble swallowing the negative 4. On the other hand, he is a horse that can run very fast, figures to benefit from the 1 1/4 and I will take the glass \"half full\" approach that his not changing leads is a sign of maturity issues and not physical issues. As such, I can view him as a horse with a very fast top, who will get some weight as a 3-year old, has a running style that may benefit from what looks like a fast pace in the Classic, has some upside and will be 20-1ish. In that case, he is a \"use\" for me.
Jim