Thoughts to take to Saturday

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

I can\'t even decipher this post. What is your point?

DD are foolish wagers unless you are playing Zenyatta?  Yet, you have made about 50 posts about Zenyatta having no chance to win.

What is this, your \"hedge post\".

[sekrah]

No.. This has nothing to do with my opinion of the race.   My point is that the win pools are going to be much more inflated towards Zenyatta than the exotics because of the public win money on her.

If you like Zenyatta to win, you should have been using her in the DD, single her in pick 3s, etc..
If you like anyone else to win, you shouldn\'t be playing the DD\'s and should just play the bloated overlay rich win pool.  

DD will pays:  Zenyatta paying $42, Blame $89, Quality Road $100.

Will Blame be 2-1 or QR 5/2 in the Classic win pool?   Because Zenyatta is looking like she might be very close to even money.

[Bet Twice]

That doesn\'t make any sense - if doubles including Zenyatta were taking all the moeny then every otehr combination would be paying higher than if she wasn\'t in the race.  If you think Zenyatta has no shot then the double is a great bet, no?

[jimbo66]

Sekrah,

At $89 and $100, with a $17 horse in the 1st leg, that doesn\'t equate to 2-1 and 5-2.  Closer to 4-1 and 9-2.

But you could be right that Blame and QR go off a LITTLE bit higher than 4-1 and 9-2.

[sekrah]

No Bet Twice, again, my opinion of Zenyatta\'s chances is 100% completely besides the point.  It\'s totally irrelevant in this discussion about proper bet crafting.

[P-Dub]

Sek,

You\'re saying the value is in the win pools, because Z will be so overbet the win prices will be inflated compared to the DD prices. Am I following you correctly ??

[cholly]

Battaglia may have blown a few of the races, but the Distaff/Classic double will-pays indicate the actual odds of The Classic will be extremely close to his M/L. The only real aberration was that First Dude is 15-1 m/l, but the will-pays indicate he\'ll be closer to 50-1.

[Michael D.]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sek,
>
> You\'re saying the value is in the win pools,
> because Z will be so overbet the win prices will
> be inflated compared to the DD prices. Am I
> following you correctly ??


Paul,

The value on Zen, to the degree you think there is any, will likely show up in the exotics pools. The fan/adoration money appears, for the most part, in the win pool.

If ESPN is talking about your horse, head immediately to the exotics pools.

Remember the media talking about Calvin and Super Saver? He was 8-1 in the win pool, but 11-1 in the exotics.

Hope you killed em today. Sounds like you did.

[sekrah]

Yes.  The public bettor that casually follows horse racing that plans on betting on Zenyatta likely doesn\'t have a clue about the Classics\' double.

A person who likes Zenyatta to win would get far more value by singling her in this pool.

A person who doesn\'t like Zenyatta gets more value out of the win pool and exacta, trifecta bets (bets that the public knows about and throws their money at).


I didn\'t get a look at all the payouts from the potential winners of the Ladies Classic but I\'m pretty sure I would get far more value out of crafting a weighted double bet with Blind Luck ($10), Havre de Grace ($3), Life at Ten ($3), Malibu Prayer ($2), Unbridled Belle ($2) w/Zenyatta for $20 than I would get from betting $20 on Zenyatta to win on her.

[sekrah]

Here, I found the classic double pools.

1-8  $28
3-8  $60
8-8  $42
10-8 $14
11-8 $50

$7 on Blind Luck-Zenyatta = $56
$4 on Life At Ten-Zenyatta = $56
$3 on Unbridled Belle-Zenyatta = $63
$2 on Havre de Grace-Zenyatta = $50
$2 on Malibu Prayer-Zenyatta = $60

$18 double bet on the only 5 contenders in the Ladies Classic guarantees no worse than 5/2 on Zenyatta.  If you toss LAT from your ticket, you\'re getting 3-1 to 4-1. Think you\'re getting 5/2 or 3-1 in the win pool on Z tomorrow?

If you liked Z to win, you missed an opportunity to create some pretty big value for yourself.

[RICH]

I think Haynesfield sits right off it, he will never be on the lead

[richiebee]

Frank:

I bet two P4s and a P3 yesterday and didn\'t have a sniff. To put a positive spin
on things, my losses were cut neatly in half by the availability of $.50
increments.

Alive in \"Classic\" Doubles to LAL, Blame, Zen and Fly Down. I did not \"weight\" the
doubles so Fly Down would be a pretty decent score for me.

Hard to call it a \"bad\" day -- great racing, sandwiches from my favorite spot in
Red Hook (Marcus knows where I\'m talking about), a refrigerator full of ice cold
ones, and best of all another great day of races to come.

Not really a P6 player, but the carryover is 800K +, might need to take a look.

[P-Dub]

Agreed, HAynesfield doesn\'t have to be on the lead.  He can sit a few lengths off, he\'s done it before.

If he stays around 25/30-1 he is big value.