Thoughts to take to Saturday

[MonmouthGuy]

Dead rail, speed holding up pretty well off the rail.  Synth horses not jumping up synth to dirt.  Any other thoughts.

ESPN showed BCC Classic odds briefly. Didn\'t see them all but Zenyatta was 3-5, no other horse was under 10-1 and Haynesfield was 30-1 and the 7th choice. Obviously a small pool, but extrapolated I think Z will go off under her ML and If he handles pre-race better than LaT, Haynesfield could be a real bomb and will be speed off the rail.  Johnny V is going to have to go to get QR out of there.

[P-Dub]

Is there any chance that the track will play differently tomorrow, or do you guys expect the same thing.

[SoCalMan2]

Anybody know how to find the Distaff-Classic DD Will Pays?

[MonmouthGuy]

$2 will-pays, Unbridled Belle (#8) with:

1. Quality Road, $100.80

2. Paddy O’Prado, $419

3. Haynesfield, $241.40

4. First Dude, $638.80

5. Blame, $89

6. Fly Down, $247

7. Musket Man, $304.20

8. Zenyatta, $42.20

9. Pleasant Prince, $1,171

10. Etched, $809

11. Espoir City, $415

12. Lookin At Lucky, $87.20

Double pool, $523,311

Early win odds, BC Classic

1. Quality Road, 12-1

2. Paddy O’Prado, 32-1

3. Haynesfield, 30-1

4. First Dude, 14-1

5. Blame, 8-1

6. Fly Down, 27-1

7. Musket Man, 36-1

8. Zenyatta, 3-5

9. Pleasant Prince, 83-1

10. Etched, 77-1

11. Espoir City, 54-1

12. Lookin At Lucky, 9-2

[jimbo66]

Monmouth,

Would disagree on speed holding well off the rail.  The key to the day was the rail was dead, period.  No opinion on speed IMO.

The winning move in the dirt races was stalking the pace midpack then sweeping on the far turn.  Not sure if that was just because those happened to be a lot of the fast horses that were in that position (Unrivaled Belle and Dubai Majesty to name a couple).

To understate the obvious, we need to pay attention to the first few races early tomorrow.  I am no track super, but if any sharp player noticed the bias, then have to believe they will work overnight to try and get it fixed.  (not sure how that happens though as I don\'t even know what the process would be to get it fixed, since I don\'t know what caused the bias).

Not great for Quality Road tomorrow, amongst other inside speeds.

[FrankD.]

WOW,

I thought for sure my double with Lucky would be well north of $ 100.00 and certainly not second choice.

Anyone else notice how much the ML odds have been off all day ? Not even close.

Hopefully tomorrow will have bigger pools, less sharpies or at least diluted by volume and a 5 million dollar pick 6 pool ?

A tough day for sure when you have 3 double digit winners in a pick 4 and can\'t get Midday home !!!

[MonmouthGuy]

Thanks for your thoughts.

I thought Jeremy Rose did all he could do with Havre de Grace considering the dead rail. His 3W/3W trip was certainly preferable to the alternative. She ran big.

I loved Big Drama tomorrow.  Now will have to pay attention early.

[FrankD.]

Jimbo,

It may have been created and \" those in charge \" may not want it to go away
What human interest story would benefit most from such a track ? Stranger things have happened remember the Belmont with Easy Goer & Sunday Silence ? Charlie Whittingham went to his grave screaming about that track !!!

I watched the races and wagered pretty intently on Wednesday & Thursday and I would have called the main track speed friendly but fair.

[jimbo66]

Frank

The pools were fine today.  The morning line was just awful in a bunch of races.  Many saw this right after Battaglia posted it.  I thought he was just an awful announcer, but he makes a lousy morning line too.  Speaking of which, the favorite for worst ML in a BC race tomorrow is Battaglia\'s decision to make Morning Line the favorite in the Dirt Mile.  No way.

I think the DD is about right with LAL.  I was hoping for 80 to 100 for QR and LAL, which are my two keys (also took a small flyer with Fly Down).

LAL was co-favored with Zenyatta in British offshore betting until a week ago.  Not saying he should be co-favored, but it was a sign he has support.

[jimbo66]

Frank D.

I hear you, but nobody swept from last to win today (at least not that I can remember).

The mid-pack/stalk outside pounce on the turn move was the winning move.

My problem is that nobody with a decent shot tomorrow in the classic has that style.  Blame/LAL/Zeny are way back.  QR is pressing.  Haynesfield is on the pace.

[phil23]

The DD is actually a pretty fair approximation of what everyone thought the odds \"should\" look like.  Blame and L@L are twice the price of Zenyatta (say 5/2 and 5/1 give or take) with QR right there after them.  But it does definitely appear as though Haynesfield is going to be huge.  In both the double and the early odds he is 2.5 times the price of Quality Road.  Fly Down and Musket Man both are next in both (30:1 give or take) and then the stragglers.  Other than First Dude\'s price in the Early (which clearly is just due to only 100k in the pool) all seems pretty much in the right order, other than Zenyatta of course being so low in the Early.

[FrankD.]

Just being a wishful greedy pig I guess !!!

How do you use 8 of 11 horses in a field and not get the winner
Logical Answer: You handicap too much like Richie and I.

Good luck tomorrow.

[FrankD.]

phil,

I really though Lucky would be 3rd or 4th choice in the Classic and Belle was 5th choice in an 11 horse field ?

[sekrah]

Daily Doubles are very foolish wagers when one of the legs has a massive public favorite like Z in it, unless you plan on using Z in the double of course.   You are flushing money down the toilet playing this double with any other horse in the Classic.

[sekrah]

Musket Man.   Unless you think a neg 2, neg 3 isn\'t fast enough.