Smith in detail on the ride

[sekrah]

Footlick..  For a deep closer in 12 horse field, Zenyatta got an above average trip.   Plain and simple truth.    Pace was quick enough up front and encountered very little, if any, resistance in her closing run.  If the pace comes up a second slower up front, she\'s staring at the rears of 3 or 4 other horses at the finish line.

You are trying to defend one of the luckiest race horses of all time, you guys should be the last ones to complain about bad luck.

[Footlick]

I asked a question about figures and internal fractions.  You have voiced your dislike over and over.  I don\'t care what anybody thinks of her.  I just asked a question.  Period.

[Footlick]

And I haven\'t complained about anything.  Sorry again

[smalltimer]

\"one of the luckiest race horses of all time.\"  Sekrah, that is a comment made by a true Zenyatta hater.

[sekrah]

It\'s the 100% truth.  Zenyatta has had overwhelmingly more than her fair share of good luck over the past 3 years.

[smalltimer]

I\'m sure your opinion is shared by all

[TGJB]

Either of you guys really think a) this can be settled by argument, or b) the rest of us should be subjected to this?

[sekrah]

It\'s not an opinion.. it\'s a fact.  Do you seriously think if you reset her career to her 3 year old season and she re-runs all her races again, that she would win 19 in a row again?   Seriously?

If she were 80% likely to win every race she\'s ever entered, she wins her first 19 at 1.44%.   She was at the minimum at 75-1 shot to complete such a feat (likely much longer because there were many of them races where she was no better than 50-60%, and a couple she was 25-40%).    If you have enough good horses racing, by sheer numbers someone is going to accomplish the feat.

[Flighted Iron]

I\'d like a $50 double no with no.

[richiebee]

Believe it or not, there are 19 chances to test these and other handicapping
theories at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs on Thursday.

In news of trainers other than John Shirreffs (sp?), Al Stall, trainer of Blame,
is 5 for 7 at the current Churchill meet. On the other hand, Rudy \"Ben Jones\"
Rodriquez was shut out the first week at the current AQ meet.

The late Pick 4 at CD looks playable, despite the fact that neither Zenyatta nor
Skip Trial appears to be entered.

[smalltimer]

That\'s what the delete button is for bossman.
This is a forum for serious players, like how much ink it takes to print.

[Rich Curtis]

Sekrah wrote:

\"It\'s not an opinion.. it\'s a fact. Do you seriously think if you reset her career to her 3 year old season and she re-runs all her races again, that she would win 19 in a row again? Seriously?
If she were 80% likely to win every race she\'s ever entered, she wins her first 19 at 1.44%. She was at the minimum at 75-1 shot to complete such a feat (likely much longer because there were many of them races where she was no better than 50-60%, and a couple she was 25-40%).\"

 Priceless. So the difference between Sekrah\'s personal pre-race odds line and Zenyatta\'s performance on the racetrack equals Zenyatta\'s \"luck factor,\" and this is \"a fact\"? Sekrah: I believe you have finally managed to top your performance on the Paceadvantage website--where you posted a bad pre-race opinion and then used the \"edit post\" function to erase your post immediately after the race, and then got caught.

[plasticman]

It is amazing to me how a horse as great as Z could never \'pop\' a negative 4 or 5 even one time in her career in 20 tries. I\'ve seen some supertrainer 30k claimers run -1 and -2s, so for Z to not be able to drill a high negative number at least once in her career is very fascinating and hard to explain. Or, maybe its easy to explain and i just haven\'t heard anyone come up with the answer yet.

[Badride]

No I took all your money off the table that race.  The whole 30 bucks you put in.

[Leamas57]

Bravo about the luck. Two or three potential foes don\'t run anywhere near their races and she walked into a pretty heavy track, too. What was the variant? --20? 24?

If CD had been running closer to 10 that day--a more normal variant, I don\'t think she hits the board at all. Lucky wasn\'t well, and QR flaked for some reason. I don\'t know what the hell those two jocks on the front were thinking either, because they had no chance at those splits.

Leamas