Santa Anita Derby

[jimbo66]

Aj,

You don\'t have to wonder about the quality at all.  It was somewhere between mediocre and downright awful.  That said, with the way this year\'s 3 year olds are running right now, in the Derby \"mediocre\" may win and \"downright awful\" may hit the board.  

Only in the 2011 Derby prep season can somebody post an unbelievably foolish statement (Baffert scratching a healthy Jaycito whom he has touted for 2 months to \"allow\" Midnight Interlude to win\"), and the horse wins.  

Of course, this gets immediately followed up by an almost as ridiculous statement about Magic Interlude being the horse to beat in the Derby.

That will probably come true too.....

Rather be lucky than smart......

[sekrah]

jimbo, another masterpiece to add to your collection.  You are clearly an insider.   Keep them coming.  

BTW, instead of your annual whine about what a \"weak crop of 3yo\'s\" this is, would you mind letting every one know who you like in the Derby?   I need to start crossing a few of these out.

And Btw, I don\'t see you posting your picks too much on here.

[jimbo66]

Nope Sekrah,

I am not an insider.  I almost never get calls from Baffert shortly before post telling me he scratched his top horse to let his 2nd stringer win.

As for the Derby, I certainly will make a pick. I am waiting for one of two things, I will let you guess which one:

1.  Waiting For all the trainers to call or your contacts and inform you whether they will win or not.

2.  Waiting for the last round of preps to be complete, so i can see the full Derby resume of the starters, so I don\'t post a different DErby winner here every week like some people I know...

[Marlin]

Wait for it, the Blue Grass & Santiva is the Derby winner, I hope!

[sekrah]

Haha jimbo.  I love you man.   Stick with me buddy, we\'ll crush this Derby together.

[hotspringskid]

I am inclined to agree with sekrah on midnight interlude. I would certainly include him in the trifecta without a doubt and the distance should be no problem. We know he can rate. Let\'s see if he stay a little straighter coming down the stretch in May. Of course I may be slightly biased since MI just turned my okay day into a great day! I still can\'t believe I got Win Willy at 5-1, are you kidding me. He absolutely loves Oaklawn.

[number5858]

On thing is for sure. There should be some nice payoffs on Derby Day. Starting to look like if you have a nominated 3 yr old with the necessary graded earnings, then you can take a shot.

side note: Mucho Macho Man sure had a nice workout.

[miff]

SA Derby came up a very decent 95 Beyer and MI wide both turns.MI in the TG 1-2 range, a solid effort in a race where he got  a tough trip.Big top for MI, no races at 2,a Baffy afterthought, derby toss.


Mike

[alm]

Why a toss Mike?  I mean I know he\'s a bounce candidate, but it\'s not automatic is it?

At this point (one more very important prep to go) this Derby shapes up as a very interesting one by the numbers, which I can\'t wait to see.  

This horse strikes me as possibly being more of a War Emblem than a Sinister Minister.  What do you think the chances are of that?

[miff]

Al,

Given that the derby now looks very wide open, I could see those who like him,despite one strong race and big top.I will be inclined to toss any horse remotely resembling a speed/stalker type this derby year(incidentally,I normally prefer root canal to betting one run,phony wide fig\'d closers)

Also,MI and The Factor were not even remotely considered for the derby by Baffy as late as February which probably means they will run 1-2 in the derby.

Very strange year, what looked to be a promising 3yr old crop/derby now looks very common.


Mike

[alm]

Good thoughts.  For sure this horse probably can\'t be expected to go forward at Churchhill, off any figure he got yesterday (except that the race was on the slow side compared to other races at SA yesterday.)  The Wood horses also appear to have gone slowly...we\'ll see what the numbers say.  Joe Vann is eligible to go forward, but is probably too slow...the race was average to below average for the day.  Once we see the Oaklawn race we should have a clearer idea of what\'s up.  It may turn out to be the most important prep race of all of them.  If it\'s fast and someone can close on The Factor (who logically should waltz in it) you may have the right individual coming into Churchill.  If not, Zito appears to me to be holding the hot hand.