Just a quick thought on this year's crop

[JimP]

That\'s about how I was viewing him. A nice colt with decent figures. Maybe a good pattern, need to see the figure for the Wood. At this point I\'m not sure that there are other contenders to which we can offer much more praise than that. I think he belongs in the Derby with these. As always, it\'s a crap shoot on which ones will get a trip, and which ones won\'t. I most likely won\'t be playing him on Derby day because with the win in the Wood beating Uncle Mo, he probably will go off at lower odds than I will find attractive. But as a possible contender I\'m not totally negative on him like so many others on here seem to be. It will be interesting to see the Wood figure and then the odds in the Derby.

[mjellish]

I know there are people that differ with me about my opinion about 1 1/4 being different than 1 1/8th, but I think it does matter.  I will always ignore breeding after I see a horse outrun his breeding \"distance limitations\" as I think on-track performance trumps breeding.  And if no one wants to go 2 miles, someone will still cross the finish line first.  So all horses can get whatever distance if none of the competition gets there first.  

With regards to this year\'s crop, which I think is weak, I think this may play into how I bet the race even more than usual.  Because I was already looking at a horse like Uncle Mo as being pretty suspect to deliver a top performance at 1 1/4.  And a horse like the The Factor will probably have a tough time trying to go wire to wire against a 20 horse field and having enough left in the stretch to hold off what will probably turn out to be this year\'s Giacomo.  Dialed In wasn\'t exactly flying home late as much as everyone else was staggering, but he looked good doing it and I would bet Zito will have this guy cranked.  Baffert\'s SA Derby winner looked good, but I would need to see a lot more to regard him as a serious derby horse.  Light on experience and coming off a lifetime top, with no foundation, isn\'t exactly the profile of a derby winner.  But who knows this year...  If he trains lights out, why not him?

[ajkreider]

Against nobodys, admittedly, but was in front by 10+ before the jock stepped off the gas.  Winning by 8 while walking across the line?  How about, \"a very good effort\"?

[big18741]

TG 7.25 which put him in the mix with the rest of the slow SA Derby field after PP and Jaycito scratched out.

Comma at the Top fastest horse in that field(after defections)but with obvious distance issues.His camp is crazy thinking about running him in the Derby.

MI obviously improved a bunch on Saturday w/wide factored in.

[moosepalm]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 why not him?


I\'m betting this will be the most frequently used phrase on the board during the next four weeks.

[number5858]

Does anyone know what TG # it takes historically to win the Derby? I would think something like -2. How many can realistically improve from 6-7 to -1 to -2 in the space of 4-5 weeks?

[Halo Fire]

Meanwhile, Mucho Macho Man is traveling under the radar. Can I get 20-1 Derby Day?

Why not HIM?

[mjellish]

You can view the sheets in the archive.  Been a while since I looked, but I would say anything around a 0 puts you there.

[sekrah]

95 Beyer, but also 3w4w.   The Factor has a 103 beyer in the Rebel with a rail trip.

Looks like possibly a 1 for Midnight Interlude in the SA Derby.


Bob Baffert, trainer of Midnight Interlude, said his horse was “not tired at all” after the race, in which he earned a Beyer of 95.

“He might be the real deal,” Baffert said Monday.


I concur:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA2lP0sM2t8

If this horse is working strong at Churchill 5 days before the Derby, only a fool would leave him off their tickets.

[number5858]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> 95 Beyer, but also 3w4w.   The Factor has a 103
> beyer in the Rebel with a rail trip.
>
> Looks like possibly a 1 for Midnight Interlude in
> the SA Derby.
>
>
> Bob Baffert, trainer of Midnight Interlude, said
> his horse was “not tired at all” after the race,
> in which he earned a Beyer of 95.
>
> “He might be the real deal,” Baffert said Monday.
>
>
> I concur:
> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA2lP0sM2t8
>
> If this horse is working strong at Churchill 5
> days before the Derby, only a fool would leave him
> off their tickets.

Thanks for clarifying. I forgot about the 3w4w. So the horse is already competitive. A 1 or 0 just might be good enough to win this year. I certainly thought the horse was visually impressive in the race. Disappointed in Indian Winter though. Had hoped that one would run better. I like those Indian Charlies at the mile to 1 1/8.

[big18741]

Midnight Interlude has a tactical advantage in a 20 horse field with a lot of the other contenders appearing to be off the pace closing types subject to racing luck.

Dam sire Groom Dancer was a G1 winner on grass at the distance.

Baffert the other positive factor.

Big jump up in the SA Derby if in the 1 to 2 range could be viewed as negative.Some crash in the Derby others haven\'t.Point Determined(2006 Baffert)was one that jumped to a 1 in the SA Derby then squat at Churchill.

[big18741]

Baffert in the Derby FWIW:

His only horses to run 1-2 were all coming in off pairs.

Cavonnier
Silver Charm
Real Quiet
War Emblem
Pioneer of the Nile

All of them either paired or moved forward at Churchill.

Four of his Derby runners jumped up(3 or more)in their final prep:

Indian Charlie 3.75 to a 3.0
Indian Express 6.0 to a 1.0
Point Determined 3.0 to a 1.0
Sinister Minister 8.0 to a ridiculous -4.5

Indian Charlie backed up 1.5 in the Derby to get in the tri but the other three crashed.

Relevant to Midnight Interlude? Maybe or maybe not-just thought I\'d put it out there.


Good luck Jim Covello and Swift Warrior in the Blue Grass.

[sekrah]

Remember though, War Emblem made a big 8 point jump and held it for 3 races.

Midnight Interlude just looks so relaxed and rateable.   It seems like Espinoza could do whatever the hell he wants with him.  He looks unflappable too.  It doesn\'t look like much bothers him.

[ajkreider]

Post position will be more important for him than for the deep closers.  Way outside or inside will be serious trouble.  If he\'s outside of horses four wide in a field of 9, where\'s he gonna be on the first turn in May?

As to how he reacts to the jump up, this may sound a little silly but the week-of clocker report seems to have been not far off in recent years, concerning who is ready to put in a big effort.

[analizethis]

Since 2003 the average winning TG number is -1 with the slowest (1 1/2) being Funny Cide and the fastest being Big Brown (-4 3/4). 2003 was the only derby that the winner didn\'t get the best number but don\'t overlook what may be the most important factor in winning that race, which is the trip. Funny Cide, Street Sense, Mine That Bird and Super Saver were all won while being either 1W/1W or 1W/2W on the turns in their respective races. So the key may figuring out which horse has the ability, combined with the post position and the jockey to navigate that type of trip.