soldat

[sekrah]

MonmouthGuy Wrote:
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> If you like Soldat, I think you will be happy with
> the odds you will get. I can\'t imagine him going
> off as the 5th choice, nor do I think he will go
> off under 15-1 no matter who makes it into the
> gate.
>
> You can get him at the Wynn or offshore at 18-1 to
> 20-1 and that seems about right.  You will be
> rewarded fairly if he fires back to his top.


I agree Monmouth.  He\'ll be around 20-1 Derby day.   Very little, if any, buzz on him outside of sheet circles.   An X in the last prep will do that to every horse.

[mjellish]

Have to get pretty creative with Soldat\'s sheet to like him off an 0-2-X.  

I\'m always wary of any big fig earned in the slop, especially by a front running horse who got away with soft early splits.  Even his second big fig was earned with another front running trip with soft early splits.  When he finally caught a field that ran honest early he folded pretty quick.  I heard that he had both his nostrils \"full\" of dirt after the FL Derby.  Horses can\'t breath through their mouths.  So you could say that did him in, if you believe it.  Either way he obviously didn\'t like having dirt kicked back in his face.  Or you could blame it on the heat that day (which was brutal by the way), or whatever.  But no matter how you slice it up, to date Soldat has shown nothing to indicate that he can run a competitive fig on dirt without getting a soft, front running trip.  So to me the bottom line is this:  

Do you think he is going to get a soft, front running trip in the Derby and carry his speed an additional 1/8th?  If you do, he could be likely to win and will be an excellent bet.

If you don\'t, in my opinion, any bet on Soldat is more or less a hope or \"cover your a**\" bet.

[Flighted Iron]

good points,but very obvious ones.Your \"bottom line\" sounds basically like a
disclaimer.

[miff]

Never trust big slop figs is on page 1 of Racing 101. Soldat\'s big TG neg -1.5 was only a TG 0 on Beyer and TG 2.75 on Rags (which is not even close)They disagree, whats new.

Soldat is 0 2 X on TG.Picking thru Soldat\'s pp\'s reveal other racing reasons for his last X. If he was in fact really \"knocked out\" by the cumulative effect of those 2 previous efforts, he ain\'t running a top 33 days later.If there was a legit racing excuse, maybe ok.

Thoro pattern, which is of little use without filtering, shows only a 5% chance for a spring 3 yr old to run a top off an 0 2 X, how come?.Tossing Soldat from the top 2 slots because:

A. I think there is little chance he can get his comfort zone favorite type trip in a 20 horse field.Lack of any gas in last a concern.

B.He stutter stepped from the gate last 2 starts and in the derby a bad start is usually not recoverable from for any horse.

C.Maybe peaked too early in the season and is over the top.


Mike

[Ill-bred]

Soldat reacted poorly to to not getting the lead in the FL Derby. I think he is a toss in Ky.

[miff]

He was always back in his turf races where the kickback is negligible, so maybe dirt kickback stops him. He would not be the first horse that does not do well down on the fence eating dirt.

[Ill-bred]

miff Wrote:
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> He was always back in his turf races where the
> kickback is negligible, so maybe dirt kickback
> stops him. He would not be the first horse that
> does not do well down on the fence eating dirt.

If dirt kickback stops him, he is probably not a good Derby pick.

[mjellish]

I think they\'re obvious points as well.  Which is why I posted them because some people have tried to make a case for Soldat.  To each their own.  But for me, unless something totally unexpected happens with the entries that changes the mix of front running style horses, Soldat just isn\'t likely to get the type of trip I think he needs to be competitive.  If you look back at past KY Derby charts you will see they are filled with horses just like this that have finished towards the rear of the field.  To me, the Derby horses that hit the board usually have one thing in common - they are able to relax early and run their style of race no matter what that style is, and some of them also get a little luck along the way.  So IMO not only is a \"needs the lead to run well\" type of horse not a good candidate to win this year (or most years), they\'re not even likely to hit the board.  

Soldat is a nice horse.  He was a great bet on FOY day.  But in the KY Derby he\'s a total toss for me.  I don\'t think he gets the trip he needs and there is no evidence to indicate he can run well without it.  Without that evidence I would not only be betting on speculation, I would also be betting on hope against my better judgement.  And if I want to start betting that way there are others to choose from.  

I admit that I think you can poke a hole or two in almost every running line while handicapping this year\'s KY Derby field.  So you\'re probably going to have forgive something along the way in order to get to really like a horse.  But I\'ve got to draw the line somewhere.

[miff]

Many sheet readers will feel he is just faster than 90% of the derby horses and that trumps all negatives. I always feel that the manner in which a horse achieves his top/s is as important as the fig itself.

[plasticman]

Isnt Soldat a \'runoff\' type of horse that has to have the lead to win? I guess if he can \'rate\' he can win because of being fast enough, but, i get leery of a horse like this who shows one dimensional and his best races are on the front end.

[Flighted Iron]

Good stats against him winning,however he probably doesn\'t need his top to hit
the board.

[Footlick]

I see him as a horse who can click of consistent 12\'s, and that could be good enough.  I don\'t think he needs the lead, but I feel he does need to be comfortable and relaxed.  And now he knows what kickback is so he may react better the second time.  He is usable for me in the exotics as long as he continues to train well.

[Ill-bred]

He has run fast and will be a big price, so he is usable.

But he hasn\'t shown me he has what it takes to win the Derby.

[Footlick]

I agree Ill-bred.