The Factor

[covelj70]

First, let me say I understand there\'s a big difference between a great bet and a great horse.

With that said, I think The Factor has the potential to be a great horse and, looking beyond this weekend, as long as he comes into the Derby the right way, I think he towers above the rest of this crop and is the key to playing this years Derby.

Much has been said lately about how bad this crop of 3 year olds is and maybe that\'s right but I don\'t think its fair to say they are all bad because The Factor has everything we should be looking for in our Derby pick.

1) Big figure as a two year old - check

2) Comes back to that big figure in his 2nd start as a 3 year old after a bit of a bounce off the original big figure - check

3) Stamina filled bottom side of the pedigree - 2nd dam sire was a half to Ruffian and Buckfinder and 3rd dam sire won the Derby and the Belmont - check

4) Trainer who knows how to win the Derby - check

5) Good foundation of races leading up to the Derby - this guy will have raced 3 times this year - check

6) No setbacks heading into the race - check (so far but alot of wood to chop here)

Now, none of us are going to get rich on the First Saturday in May betting the favorite and I generally try to avoid betting favorites at all costs but as MJ taught us a few years ago with Big Brown, keying the favorite on top in the Derby and coming up with a big tri or the super can be plenty rewarding.

With all of this said, I probably just jinxed this horse and he will spit the bit at the 1/8th pole this weekend and wind up not running in the Derby

[FrankD.]

Jim,

All very valid points about a very interesting horse and I agree with the stronger bottom half of the pedigree. I still feel 10 furlongs would be pushing the envelope especially with his long effortless stride which screams sprinter or cruiser.

Granted if Baffert wants to take a shot ? This is a great year to do it but I\'m really hoping he doesn\'t ? He reminds me of Keyed Entry who had the natural speed and a free running style a few years back but no business attempting 1 1/4 miles. He was last in the Derby by about 50 lengths, became a head case and was never remotely the same horse after.

He\'s had 27,28 or 29 days between his starts and he would be coming in to the Derby off only 21 days rest after the Arkansas Derby. Too much to soon for my taste and will offer little value at 5/1 or so due to confusion and connections.

I posted after the Rebel that I hoped Baffert skipped the Derby and maybe takes a shot in the Preakness ? Less horses, more rest, the 1/16 pole of difference and a generally more speed friendly track than CHD.

Should make for an interesting string though !

Frank D.

[big18741]

Interested to see how he fares on Saturday.

You have four blinkers on horses going in the race.Doesn\'t look like any can test him early on paper but you never know.A couple others with bad posts might get gunned.

If he passes that test without going backwards you\'d have to take a very hard look at him.My only concerns would be three week turnaround and what other pace type shows up for the Derby.I was thinking hot pace all along but so far it looks like The Factor,Shackleford and maybe Comma to the Top.

Comma to the Top probably shouldn\'t be entered by his connections but he does have the ability to go fast early(San Felipe)
Shackleford went pretty quick early in the Fla Derby as well.

Will be very interested to see the pre derby special after these races from Saturday have been scored.The Lexington and Derby Trial don\'t figure to be impactful.

Just a thought on Dialed In for those that like him:

Pencil him in for a 1w 5w type trip.Zito/Lapenta after last years Ice Box rough trip inside don\'t want that trouble.He\'ll be taken out wide ala Strike the Gold on the second turn.

[Michael D.]

Agree on the bottom of the pedigree, Jim. And don\'t forget about Miswaki. Daylami, Sea The Stars, Galileo, Urban Sea .... Miswaki passed on his Buckpasser/Princequillo genes to a large number of Euro classic winners. But with War Front on top and the hasty running style, has the bottom of the pedigree done as much as it can? Was 1 1/16 the limit? If it were not Baffert, I\'d be more inclined to say yes. The Factor ran well through the stretch last, and certainly looked like he could go longer. This is a great colt, a potential Ky Derby winner, but he will be under attack from at least one of the Pletcher colts from the break.

The two that interest me most in the Ark Derby are Elite Alex and Sway Away. EA finally draws well, and adds blinkers. He is bred to go long, and should get a better trip here. Looks like a Denis of Cork type, who could pass them all if things get too hot up front. And Sway Away ... the old \"lost a tooth\" excuse. You\'re definitely reaching when you resort to the \"lost a tooth\" angle to come up your Derby pick. That\'s the kind of year it is though. Anything good is gonna win. SA pounds like a one-run sprinter, but he\'s a good sized colt with a solid distance pedigree. Adds blinkers and will show more speed on Sat. Can he cruise along at a solid pace and finish? Barring more gate troubles, I\'m guessing yes.

The Factor is gonna have to come back to them late, which might be more hoping than handicapping, but the probable 3rd and 4th choices, Elite Alex and Sway Away, jumped out at me after a quick look. Let\'s see what the figures look like.

[ajkreider]

Agree about Elite Alex.  If he gets in the Derby, will be live to show in the super.  Any horse that can get the distance and will get a rail trip is tough to toss.

[RICH]

I like the line on calebs posse, looks good to me

[jimbo66]

Jim,

I have to agree with you.  Before Mo\'s last race (and before the Florida Derby), I posted that Uncle Mo and The Factor were clearly the best horses of this generation, with a gap to Soldat (before he raced poorly) and then a gap to the rest.  Since then, with Soldat\'s clunker and Mo\'s amazing clunker, that leaves The Factor.  I hadn\'t thought about your checklist, but that even points it out further.  (although I would dispute the \"bounce\" and then \"back to the top\" statement, because I have suspicions that the host has a few of The Factor\'s races too slow).  

That said, I am taking a shot with Sway Away on Saturday.  I liked his race last year where he was closing solidly in the California stakes race and then I loved his late run against The FActor two races back.  I wanted to go \"All in\" on Sway Away in the Rebel, but was very disappointed with the price (he was co-favored with The Factor most of the wagering).  Now, with the clunker he ran, he should be 4th choice.  I am going to forgive the last race as I am not going to call him distance challenged yet.  He was running awkwardly and \"climbing\" 50 yards out of the gate and never picked up his feet.  That is not \"distance challenged\" to me, as the issues started before the first turn.  I am going to believe that it just wasn\'t his day (lost tooth or whatever), and bet him back this SAturday, hoping to get 5-1 or better.  The recent workout at Oaklawn showed me that it wasn\'t the surface either.  

But if the Factor coasts, he has to be the Derby favorite, closer to 7-2 than 5-1 IMHO.

Jim

[Uncle Buck]

This horse is named after Bill O\'Reilly\'s TV show. INSTANT toss for me. Tossing him off the planet deep into the no spin zone.

[Silver Charm]

O\'Reilly has already given the horse some ink on his show, came to the Derby the year Big Brown won and came to our Derby Party and was a good guy!

MUST USE!!

Regarding The Factors bounce, he went into that race with two soft works. He got short late because he ran as a short horse. Thats a good looking line on him as I posted here about 2 weeks ago.  

Saturday should be good. Better not be too good!

[Lost Cause]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This horse is named after Bill O\'Reilly\'s TV show.
> INSTANT toss for me. Tossing him off the planet
> deep into the no spin zone.


I thought it was for his sway back?
I liked that horse a lot last time but he had no-run..seems like everything i\'ve been picking lately has no-run.  But that one was really bad so I have to throw it out as just one of those unexpainable performances (tooth loss)..I\'ll have to see the sheets also but I will definitely have my eye on him if his price is right.

[Caradoc]

Silver: For the record, The Factor\'s final two works before the February 20th San Vicente were 1) six furlongs on February 8th in 1:12 flat, and 2) seven furlongs on February 14th in 1:24.2, a bullet on that day and virtually on any day, any track, anywhere in the world.  You sure those were soft works?  We are talking about Bullet Bob here.  How about, alternatively, he got short late in the San Vicente because he was coming off the 1 1/4 he ran in his maiden race, a very fast number which (at least then) was his maximum effort?  That seems to be the better interpretation because he could only pair that effort but not break through at Oaklawn twelve weeks after that maiden effort.

[Silver Charm]

I will back off on the word soft! Two Works in two months proves my point. He had been very lightly conditioned perhaps because of the Big Effort.

Which means the Trainer knows what he is doing.......

[sekrah]

Bomb\'s away in the Arkansas Derby I think.

Elite Alex + Archarcharch will be the keys to launching the nuke.

Dancy City scares the **** out of me too.